Questions for you

Be honest with you, Chief (affectionately-speaking), I hadn't really pondered on these questions before. Tell you where I'd start, though, FWIW, had I been approached by these Smart Cube fellers. I'd start with trying to identify the sources from which I might find the answers. I'd presume they'd prefer a basis-in-fact, there? Then, of course, cite to the sources, so as to provide the basis for the answers.

Thus, a related question, here, should be: "What are you basing your answers on, folks?" I'd think...

 

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Oh you're just watching too much of the History Channel.

 

On the last two points:

I guess I would at least mention that grading has gotten tighter at the two main services, maybe partially as a result of CAC but also as a reaction to the marketplace. As a consequence, certain people have been squeezed a bit -- crackout artists with a good eye for one.

As far as threats to the hobby, I think counterfeiting and coin doctors are the obvious ones. I hope the services can keep up.

 

Have any of you considered the market share that TAGZ (Tangible Assets Gallery) has built ? I have been a long time customer of theirs s well as Heritage.

 

An important distinction !

Care to elaborate ? I'm all ears. hya:

 

I am sorry that I did not make my self clear enough. The "I have seen no one with numbers that high" refers to Mr. Coin Lover - "The annual volume is approximately $1billion per year."; andy21us - "Traditional auction houses - $1.0 billion"; etc.

 

I did notice the original question was for either Global or US rare coin market. It would be very difficult for a US only dealer, company, organiization or just a collector to estimate the possible rare coin market in many countries where very little actual and factual information is available. And what info is available is difficult to prove.
As to our own rare coin market for US coins, there would have to be some distinction as to the meaning of rare coins. Using Lincoln Cents, for an example, just which ones would be considered rare? Naturally the 09S VDB, 14D but would we consider the 55 Double Die? The 22 Plain? These are error coins so are we including error coins? Again using Lincoln Cents if we are to include error coins a look at that book by C.D.Daughtrey on those coins is full of error coins from almost every year. Do we include all of those?
Using Liberty Head Nickels as an example naturally the 1913 but is the 85 and 86 rare or just expensive? The 12S is expensive but is it rare?
The worst part of that question is who do you believe. I'm sure organizations that sell coins do not produce accurate statistics for many reasons. Taxes for one. Advertising a larger sales production may also be just for advertising. Many, many independant dealers buy and sell coins and do not keep records also for tax purposes.
Hate to be a pessimist but I would find it difficult to ever attempt to estimate the amount of rare coins bought and sold here in the US. Again though this is really pending on just what is rare and what is just expensive. And remembering that what is expensive to some is pocket change to others.

 

As the general populations from the emerging economies of China and India obtain more discretionary income the number of coin collectors in these countries will increase accordingly. Given the size of these populations coupled with the idea that the majority would probably collect coinage of their own country makes me think that the demand for Chinese and India coinage will push prices in a strong upward slope over the next 25 years.

 

An interesting post, Carl. Yes, we need to define terms.

My proposal is this : for the purpose of this discussion, anything which people collect and are willing to pay a premium over face / melt is part of the rare coin market. Anything which is nothing more than commodity speculation is out.

For the purpose of defining "rare coin market", it's infeasible to drill down to the level of common dates vs. semi-keys vs. keys. I think the division must be kept simple : exclude commodity bullion.

Some may protest and say "Wait ! Some guys like to collect ASEs by date ! Why exclude them ?".

But here's the deal - no matter where we "draw the line", we wind up with controversy. We don't need surgical micro-precision here. We just don't.

Someone is trying to get a rough number for market research, that's all. The difference between $10 billion and $10.1 billion is not significant in this style of thinking - even though it's $100 million !

It's only 1%, and that's what counts.

Yes, my definition includes 1999-D 1c as a "rare coin" which will bother some. Let's just make a call and move on. Exclude bullion. Keep it simple.

Next !

 

I will do some thinking here but can spout off pretty safely that the
US Mint is the largest coin dealer on the planet:smile

The biggest threat? EBAY ( THAT was a joke folks )

 

Just a thought.
I wonder if instead of "rare coins", their intent was "investment coins".

And the view from my little corner (still filling holes) seems to be that in general coins are NOT looked upon as prime investment material.

 

Why not just refer them to the Red Book, 2010 Edition pages 413 to 417?
List of top 250 coins.

 

I would agree, because the definition of rare is: uncommon, few and far between, thin, not dense, extremely valuable: of the highest excellence.
With this being said then the only rare 1909-S VDB would be The finest Brown examples graded by PCGS are 2 MS-66BN's. The finest Red-Brown examples graded by PCGS are 16 MS-66RB's. The finest Red examples graded by PCGS are 9 MS-67RD's.

 

That's an important distinction that we need to remind ourselves of.

 

Let em do thier own research !!!! Coins from HK Yukkk.. Traci

 

So Doug are you going to give us your numbers?

 

Without defined perameters, the questions posted could be very tough to answer. Heck, WITH defined perameters they would be hard to answer with any accuracy.
Especially for a coin hoarder like me.