Question about survival estimates of 1916 Liberty Standing Quarter Vs 1916-D Dime

The 1916 D Dime is common. The 1916 SL Quarter is scarce. If I can hop onto Google at any given time and find at least one for sale (much less multiples), then it is not rare. It is at most scarce.

 

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I'll agree with that. PCGS shows almost 1,800 graded, which would include regrades, and NGC shows almost 900 - both in all grades. The concept of rarity, along with what "unique" means, are improperly used. 1987 Buick GNXs are rare (547 made).

 

Yeah, but it is used improperly throughout US numismatics. I spent a decade once trying to locate a silver Milaresion of Christopher for sale at any price, and that coin is only considered scarce for ancient coins.

The US numismatic market confuses, (probably intentionally by the dealers), the difference between "in high demand" versus "rare". No US coins made in the 20th century, (save maybe errors like 43 on copper cents or illegal coins like 1913 LHN), are rare. They may be in high demand, but not rare.

 

This doesn’t make any sense. Dime vs. quarter: 5x more minted, 5x more graded but same survival rate?
How do you figure that?

Or did you mean the survival rate ratio should be the same 5:1 as the mirage and certification?

 

"Survival Rate" does not mean "number of estimated surviving pieces" - it means "percentage of pieces minted which survived." The dime and the quarter both have roughly the same relative ratio (percentage) of surviving pieces based on their different mintages.

 

Aha gotcha. Makes sense.

 

Yes since the ratios of graded to mintage are roughly the same the surviaval rates should be roughly the same. But for that to be true and the 1916 quarter to have 10,000 surviving specimens, it's survival rate would be nearly 20%. If the 16 D dime had a 20% survival rates well it would have 53,000 surviving specimens, not the 10,000 that PCGS coinfacts says. If the 10,000 figure is right for the 16 D, then the number of surviving 1916 quarters should be 2,000 coins.

 

Yes but....

Survival rates are not the same for mintages. Look at the 1950d nickel, almost impossible to find circulated since they were saved so much. I have read the same kind of happened to the 1916 quarter. Even at the time people knew they were going to be special so many Philadelphia and east coast dealers went through stocks and pulled them out. So I would very much expect more BU examples of the quarters than the dime proportionate to mintages.

 

Jason, you totally lost me on the highlighted statement....... The two sound exactly the same but worded differently. I’m confused. The figure 10,000 is a number, not a percent.

 

Survival Estimate: a number, such as 10,000 pieces. This lets you know how many you think may be out there.

Survival Rate: a percentage, such as 10%. This lets you know what percentage of the original mintage is still around.

Both mean essentially the same thing (you use one to get the other), but they are two different ways of quantifying it. For some, thinking in percentages is easier. It also helps explain some statistics more easily.

 

Oh, absolutely agree. The survival rate (the percentage that survived) is going to vary widely for different issues, based on how they were distributed, marketed, collected, saved, melted, or shipwrecked, etc.

 

Makes sense now. I totally over-thought your original post lol. Thanks.