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<p>[QUOTE="-jeffB, post: 1338631, member: 27832"]It's no big change. It'll still be a tax on people who are bad at math, or at least at risk assessment.</p><p><br /></p><p>When the jackpot gets up around $200M, the misleadingly-named "expected payout" exceeds the cost of the $1 ticket. Under the new scheme, that'll be $400M for a $2 ticket, I suppose. In other words, in the long term, if you only play when the jackpot is that high, you'd expect to win more than you spend.</p><p><br /></p><p>Unfortunately, "the long term" here is measured in millions of years. In "the short term", say 100 years or so, you can "expect" to lose most of what you spend -- with extremely high probability.</p><p><br /></p><p>It's a sucker bet. But if you're doing it for entertainment, based on the defective risk-assessment response that's built into every human being, go right ahead -- buying half as many tickets at twice the price will have no effect on your odds, and shouldn't have any effect on your enjoyment.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="-jeffB, post: 1338631, member: 27832"]It's no big change. It'll still be a tax on people who are bad at math, or at least at risk assessment. When the jackpot gets up around $200M, the misleadingly-named "expected payout" exceeds the cost of the $1 ticket. Under the new scheme, that'll be $400M for a $2 ticket, I suppose. In other words, in the long term, if you only play when the jackpot is that high, you'd expect to win more than you spend. Unfortunately, "the long term" here is measured in millions of years. In "the short term", say 100 years or so, you can "expect" to lose most of what you spend -- with extremely high probability. It's a sucker bet. But if you're doing it for entertainment, based on the defective risk-assessment response that's built into every human being, go right ahead -- buying half as many tickets at twice the price will have no effect on your odds, and shouldn't have any effect on your enjoyment.[/QUOTE]
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