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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Al Kowsky, post: 8300021, member: 97383&quot;]I think tying the value of coins (ancient &amp; modern) to the CPI is an exercise in futility for the reasons <b>dougsmit</b> posted. Not only for those reasons, but there has been an important split in these markets, certified versus uncertified (slabbed /raw). Slabbed ancient coins are selling for 2,3,or 4 times as much as the exact same quality as raw coins. Will this trend continue <img src="styles/default/xenforo/clear.png" class="mceSmilieSprite mceSmilie12" alt="o_O" unselectable="on" unselectable="on" />, for the short time I believe it will. So what could shake-up the slabbed ancient coin market <img src="styles/default/xenforo/clear.png" class="mceSmilieSprite mceSmilie67" alt=":nailbiting:" unselectable="on" unselectable="on" />, the same thing that shook-up the American coin market, <b>census reporting</b> <img src="styles/default/xenforo/clear.png" class="mceSmilieSprite mceSmilie9" alt=":eek:" unselectable="on" unselectable="on" />. When collectors see the amount of coins certified for a specific grade, &amp; realize that <b>MS, strike 5/5, surface 5/5 </b>coins are more common than previously believed, prices for those coins will drop <img src="styles/default/xenforo/clear.png" class="mceSmilieSprite mceSmilie3" alt=":(" unselectable="on" unselectable="on" />. Some coins, ancient &amp; modern, will always defy the current trends; the $20 gold coin pictured below is an example. This is a very common coin that has been accurately graded <b>MS65</b> by PCGS. I bought the coin in August 2018 at a Heritage auction for $2,400, &amp; today it is listed for $6,000 in the PCGS Price Trends. The $6,000 price is too high, but the coin would easily sell at auction for $5,000 today. Has inflation doubled over those four short years <img src="styles/default/xenforo/clear.png" class="mceSmilieSprite mceSmilie12" alt="o_O" unselectable="on" unselectable="on" />? Hardly <img src="styles/default/xenforo/clear.png" class="mceSmilieSprite mceSmilie85" alt=":smuggrin:" unselectable="on" unselectable="on" />. The same coin graded <b>MS63</b> would have sold for $100 over melt in 2018, &amp; could be purchased for about $100 over melt today.</p><p><br /></p><p>[ATTACH=full]1468266[/ATTACH] </p><p><br /></p><p>I bought the Roman denarius pictured below for $15 in the 1980s. I spent about $50 to get the coin slabbed a long time ago. What could this coin fetch at auction today <img src="styles/default/xenforo/clear.png" class="mceSmilieSprite mceSmilie12" alt="o_O" unselectable="on" unselectable="on" />, I&#039;m guessing $200/400. In a raw state I think it might sell of $150/200.</p><p><br /></p><p>[ATTACH=full]1468268[/ATTACH] </p><p><br /></p><p>I don&#039;t know if this comparison proves anything, however, over the short run I&#039;m much happier with the performance of the $20 gold coin <img src="styles/default/xenforo/clear.png" class="mceSmilieSprite mceSmilie8" alt=":D" unselectable="on" unselectable="on" />.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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