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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Paul M., post: 3757971, member: 73165&quot;]That&#039;s a very hard question to answer, as I&#039;m sure you know.&nbsp; Step 1 would be to factor out movement in the metals market by basically subtracting the melt value of the coin.&nbsp; What you&#039;d be left with is the pure numismatic value of the coin.&nbsp; You can then look at what the price guide trends are for, say, a 1924 generic double eagle in whatever grade.</p><p><br /></p><p>Beyond that, I really don&#039;t know how to analyze a collectibles market.&nbsp; Cyclical trends are probably fundamentally driven by how well the economy as a whole does, because one needs disposable income to pursue an expensive collecting hobby.&nbsp; You would also probably want to consider demographic factors of the hobby itself, like the number of collectors in an accumulation vs liquidation phase (how you&#039;d measure that, I don&#039;t know -- I&#039;m guessing either a specialized survey or perhaps some source of age information, older collectors being more likely to be in the liquidation phase than younger collectors, perhaps).</p><p><br /></p><p>It&#039;s a tough enough problem that I suspect you could spend a full time job&#039;s worth of time on it and still not get very far.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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