Predictions for gold and silver prices?

I don't really worry about the distinction between "physical" gold and "paper" gold anymore than I worry about if people buy gold coins or bars.

Gold is gold, AFAIC.

 

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We'll have to agree to disagree on this point. Possession is 9/10's of the law, and cash money doesn't get a 1099.

 

Let me clarify: I prefer and only buy physical gold, since it doubles for me numismatically.

But buying gold in the aggregate is pretty much the same from a demand perspective.

 

Gold price holding nicely at $2434, but it's only been a short time, so as always time will tell what happens next.

 

Just in.....Silver Bullion has risen so significantly in Asia it has hit "Limit-up" which is the level at which trading must halt to give people time to re-think what's going and and prevent a market melt-up.

 

2024 End of year predictions

Gold trading around $2,650 oz
Silver trading around $37.85 oz

The Gold to Silver ratio will continue to tighten benefitting Silver, with Silver outperforming Gold, on the year.

Both are a monetary asset outside the banking system without counterparty risk and both preserve purchasing power, but with silver you get the potential outperformance if the ratio falls.

Wild Cards & Catalyst
Economic Uncertainty
Gold, silver and copper are all experiencing notable gains from "economic uncertainty boosting demand for safe-haven assets, supply-chain disruptions impacting availability, and increased industrial demand, particularly for green technologies.

WAR
Historical data reveals a consistent pattern of gold/precious metal prices rising during periods of war.

2024 US Election
No comment

Weakening US Dollar ?

Inflation

 

Copper had a Short Squeeze
Gold riding the Fear Trade
Silver on Supply/Demand realization
Dollar is still strong but…
As the Fed backs off rates later this year another leg up for metals

 

I had a good friend for the last thirty years. He was a danged smart fellow. He was also a coin collector…… He purchased a substantial amount of “Iraqi Dinars” after Desert Storm. I don’t remember how much cash he tied up in them but when we got a little lubricated, he liked to show them to me and it was quite a pile of multi-colored bills…… That man swore quite literally to his grave that there was a pending reevaluation and he would become the wealthiest man in town overnight……. Well, my buddy went on to meet his maker year before last and never realized his dream….. But having witnessed how our the American dollar has been brutalized, I have resolved to never trust paper wealth. I’ll earn it by the sweat of my brow and put it in the bank or physical bullion till my dying day.

 

I might be crazy...

https://www.pmbug.com/threads/silver-might-10x-within-the-next-3-years.7455/

 

It is soul cleansing when we consider the self-evaluation of the status of our triple psyche is indeed fact.

 

I have a five piece Silver Eagle and Gold Eagle type set with "old family of eagles" reverse. I don't want to tell you what I paid for that set over 30 years ago. It's a lot less than a half ounce piece would cost you today.

I have wanted to build the "eagle head" set, but was was concerned about the price of gold. I guess I should have bought when it was $1,800. Still I can remember when gold was $850 an ounce over 40 years ago. It crashed from that price. There is even more room to go down now.

 

Oh, man, bad flashback.

The gold-silver ratio (which I never paid much attention to until a certain ex-CoinTalker took up a full-time volunteer position putting words in my mouth) was in the 50-60 range when that thread started. It's reached well over 100 since then. Even with silver's recent spike, it's still around 76.

People who stacked silver waiting to exchange it for gold have been waiting a long time. They might soon see the ratio falling back toward 50, or they might be waiting a lot longer. But anyone who's under the illusion that a high GSR is somehow an actual thing that's exerting pressure on the price of gold or silver... well, in my opinion, they're under an illusion.

 

GOLD COLLECTOR Remember well

 

But that level was a 20-fold rise in 7 years....and a doubling in a few months. Gold or any asset was vulnerable to a huge drop after that kind of move -- and it could STILL be said to be in a bull market (it wasn't).

That's not the case today. Gold laid at $1,400 give-or-take for YEARS after the 2011 peak. It based for a decade...it's been a slow steady rise....very little speculation....no media frenzy.

We can EASILY run to $3,500 before we have substantial downside. Gold is getting harder to find (see my charts) and more people are buying (see my charts ) and as 100 million people each year on Earth move from subsistence living to low-to-moderate income....they will buy GOLD.

It's going alot higher. Just hope I have my MCMVII HR, a few more Saints, and a few Liberty Heads long before it moves up.

 

Forget the Chinese CB and all the retail buying (it's actually selling right now) from the U.S. and any Europeans and developed world.

I can make a case for $3,000 gold by 2030 just based on Indian retail buying as their economy grows by 50% in the next 6 years.

 

Even though I know what it is going to say…… I still gasp when I open up the charts.

 

I'm so glad that the average "collector" doesn't "dollar-cost-average" when buying certified Top-tier TPG Gold coins.

I can virtually locate/purchase a bargain NGC/PCGS 69-70 grade Gold coin every day for less percentage premium than I would have paid decades ago.

I stopped buying raw quality Gold coins years ago because of the insanity of TPG, in their grading relative to the initial A.N.A. published pictorial standards.

Now I have an appreciable virtually average todays' Mint-State standard coins that the average collector wants to acquire for less than melt, and gasp at the cost to insure a shipment.

How would the average dealer insure shipment of a 5-6 digit value coin?

$12.15 plus $1.85 per $100.00 or fraction thereof over $600 in declared value, with a maximum liability of $5000, USPS.

 

I'm sure the average dealer would have third-party insurance through Hugh Wood or a similar organization.

For the rest of us, there's a clear threshold beyond which Registered Mail is much cheaper to insure. Shipping a $5000 Medium Flat Rate Priority package across the country with insurance would be $114.25. Registered, it would be $50.35. $156.10 will ship the same package with $50,000 insurance. Beyond that value, you'd surely be looking at other transportation options anyhow. (Starting with "get on a plane with the thing and take it yourself".)

 

I think this and the next year of politics including foreign countries effects ( All which we can not discuss) will have the greatest effects of all on precious metals,
and may do so for more than several years.

 

It's all about supply (falling) and demand (rising).

Per-capita income doubles every 10 years when you grow at 7% like India is. Other countries are growing close to that, too.

Demand destruction probably doesn't happen right now until $3,000. It will probably take $5,000 in another 10-12 years.

Hop on the train while the caboose is going slow....