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Predicting hammer price: playing a bit with Sixbid data & looking for inspiration
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<p>[QUOTE="Nvb, post: 3839793, member: 99531"]You obviously know a thing or two about statistics. </p><p>It'd be interesting if you model several approaches and compare the outcomes. </p><p>Even some very simple approaches may yield good results.</p><p><br /></p><p>Lets say for instance you take a particular auction house and find their sale price/ estimate ratio over a number of auctions. It seems to me some auction houses estimate close to retail while others are laughably low. If those auction houses are very consistent with their estimating techniques, you could have a very useable predictor. </p><p>You'd do well to know which animal you are dealing with on a case by case.. </p><p><br /></p><p>Personally I take the traditional approach.. I'll pull up as many comparables, based <i>entirely</i> on appeal, as I can on acsearch. I disregard all other factors.</p><p>I'll get a feel for what is a fair price, then decide whether I'm willing to overpay or hope for a steal.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="Nvb, post: 3839793, member: 99531"]You obviously know a thing or two about statistics. It'd be interesting if you model several approaches and compare the outcomes. Even some very simple approaches may yield good results. Lets say for instance you take a particular auction house and find their sale price/ estimate ratio over a number of auctions. It seems to me some auction houses estimate close to retail while others are laughably low. If those auction houses are very consistent with their estimating techniques, you could have a very useable predictor. You'd do well to know which animal you are dealing with on a case by case.. Personally I take the traditional approach.. I'll pull up as many comparables, based [I]entirely[/I] on appeal, as I can on acsearch. I disregard all other factors. I'll get a feel for what is a fair price, then decide whether I'm willing to overpay or hope for a steal.[/QUOTE]
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Predicting hammer price: playing a bit with Sixbid data & looking for inspiration
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