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<p>[QUOTE="Tom B, post: 1618320, member: 11854"]I like some of what you have written while for other points I have a different opinion. One thing left unwritten in an explicit sense, but that I think we agree upon, is that those who search for coins reject the great majority that are searched and so the populations published by the TPGs are weighted heavily to include only the best coins out there. I agree with the idea that older coins will more likely have a smaller chance of population explosion at the highest grades. This is due not only to searching, which might be been in full force for only a short time, but also to attrition as coins are lost, spent or otherwise mishandled over the years. The newer issues might see much larger population explosions at the extreme high end than the older coins.</p><p><br /></p><p>Where I disagree is that I do not think the undergrade is in a statistically more dangerous position than the pop top. This isn't so much because of the possibility of another coin added to the highest grade, but is more because of the possibility of a new high grade maximum being achieved for the issue. When it comes to coins in the 69/70 grade this is a moot point, but coins in the 68/69 grade or some other grade pair face the possibility of a newly made 70 becoming the single pop top. In my opinion, an event such as a single 70 being made would influence the value of the 69 moreso than the 68 since the value of the 68 is already reduced and the population quite large on a relative basis and also because the 69 graded coins would no longer be pop tops and might not have the Registry pressure that they currently enjoy. Lastly, something you did not mention is the stability of grading standards. These can and do change over time and can grealy affect the populations of the highest graded coins. I have lived in the silver WQ niche for many years and from 1986-1999 or so only a single WQ was ever graded MS68 by PCGS. However, from about 1999-2002 (the height of the bull market) the population soared from a single coin to perhaps 35-40 pieces. Part of it was due to searching and part was from increased submissions, but part was also from regrades of previously graded MS67 coins that now met the reduced standard for MS68. This is something we cannot control, but will affect prices dramatically.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="Tom B, post: 1618320, member: 11854"]I like some of what you have written while for other points I have a different opinion. One thing left unwritten in an explicit sense, but that I think we agree upon, is that those who search for coins reject the great majority that are searched and so the populations published by the TPGs are weighted heavily to include only the best coins out there. I agree with the idea that older coins will more likely have a smaller chance of population explosion at the highest grades. This is due not only to searching, which might be been in full force for only a short time, but also to attrition as coins are lost, spent or otherwise mishandled over the years. The newer issues might see much larger population explosions at the extreme high end than the older coins. Where I disagree is that I do not think the undergrade is in a statistically more dangerous position than the pop top. This isn't so much because of the possibility of another coin added to the highest grade, but is more because of the possibility of a new high grade maximum being achieved for the issue. When it comes to coins in the 69/70 grade this is a moot point, but coins in the 68/69 grade or some other grade pair face the possibility of a newly made 70 becoming the single pop top. In my opinion, an event such as a single 70 being made would influence the value of the 69 moreso than the 68 since the value of the 68 is already reduced and the population quite large on a relative basis and also because the 69 graded coins would no longer be pop tops and might not have the Registry pressure that they currently enjoy. Lastly, something you did not mention is the stability of grading standards. These can and do change over time and can grealy affect the populations of the highest graded coins. I have lived in the silver WQ niche for many years and from 1986-1999 or so only a single WQ was ever graded MS68 by PCGS. However, from about 1999-2002 (the height of the bull market) the population soared from a single coin to perhaps 35-40 pieces. Part of it was due to searching and part was from increased submissions, but part was also from regrades of previously graded MS67 coins that now met the reduced standard for MS68. This is something we cannot control, but will affect prices dramatically.[/QUOTE]
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