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<p>[QUOTE="halfcent1793, post: 2910439, member: 86853"]As of yesterday, PCGS' pop reports just under 270,000 1881-S Morgans. I picked this, because it is the most frequently slabbed variety of the most generic series so the numbers should be the least biased. Of all of those coins, only 3545 have been given a MS + grade. </p><p><br /></p><p>Let’s assume that PCGS gets the numerical grade of a MS Morgan exactly right about 97% of the time, a very generous assumption given that coin quality varies continuously and does not fall into discrete grade categories. But, the 3545 1881-S Morgans with a + grade represent only 1.3% of the Mint State population, a surprisingly small fraction IMHO. That means that the number of coins graded MS-64 that should be graded MS-65 is probably as large as the number graded MS-64+. </p><p><br /></p><p>It seems that you’d be better off selecting a coin you think is nice for the grade than paying a premium for the piece of paper with the marginally higher grade.</p><p><br /></p><p>Thoughts?[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="halfcent1793, post: 2910439, member: 86853"]As of yesterday, PCGS' pop reports just under 270,000 1881-S Morgans. I picked this, because it is the most frequently slabbed variety of the most generic series so the numbers should be the least biased. Of all of those coins, only 3545 have been given a MS + grade. Let’s assume that PCGS gets the numerical grade of a MS Morgan exactly right about 97% of the time, a very generous assumption given that coin quality varies continuously and does not fall into discrete grade categories. But, the 3545 1881-S Morgans with a + grade represent only 1.3% of the Mint State population, a surprisingly small fraction IMHO. That means that the number of coins graded MS-64 that should be graded MS-65 is probably as large as the number graded MS-64+. It seems that you’d be better off selecting a coin you think is nice for the grade than paying a premium for the piece of paper with the marginally higher grade. Thoughts?[/QUOTE]
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