As of yesterday, PCGS' pop reports just under 270,000 1881-S Morgans. I picked this, because it is the most frequently slabbed variety of the most generic series so the numbers should be the least biased. Of all of those coins, only 3545 have been given a MS + grade. Let’s assume that PCGS gets the numerical grade of a MS Morgan exactly right about 97% of the time, a very generous assumption given that coin quality varies continuously and does not fall into discrete grade categories. But, the 3545 1881-S Morgans with a + grade represent only 1.3% of the Mint State population, a surprisingly small fraction IMHO. That means that the number of coins graded MS-64 that should be graded MS-65 is probably as large as the number graded MS-64+. It seems that you’d be better off selecting a coin you think is nice for the grade than paying a premium for the piece of paper with the marginally higher grade. Thoughts?
1.3% seems to be an extraordinarily high percentage if you ask me. Most people don't want to spend the extra money to grade them. I would expect that for most common coins the overwhelming majority (99%?) of those not melted are just sitting in collections or hoards, ungraded.
You picked a bad coin to use as your example. I say that because the '81-S Morgan, along with a few of the other early S mint Morgans, is in a somewhat special category that very few coins fall into. That category is this - these coins are graded differently than other Morgans are graded. These coins are graded using a more strict set of grading standards than other Morgans are graded with. As for the comparison you're trying to make between the plus grades and regular grades - well that doesn't really work either. I say that for a couple of different reasons. 1 - plus grades have only even existed for a few years. Prior to that there was no such thing as a plus grade. So there is no way to fairly compare the number of plus grades to the number of regular grades. And that applies to all coins, not just the '81-S Morgans. 2nd reason - the TPGs have changed their grading standards several times since 2004. And since they have changed their grading standards this means not all coins have been graded equally. For example, coins that were graded as AU prior to 2004 are today graded as MS. And today, just about all coins have jumped 2, 3, or even 4 grades from what they would have been graded before 2004. Given those two things you simply can't make comparisons like the ones you are trying to make.
Not for this coin, but you could instead select a coin that was added to the catalog after they started using + grades.
FWIW, if I had my choice between a plus (+) grade, say MS64+, and a straight grade of MS65, I'd rather have the straight grade! Chris
I agree with Chris, I would take a straight graded 65 any day. The lessor grade with the + just seems like too much of a consolation prize to me. Now the graders were being too nitpicky on that one.
Thought 1: You can't count the number of 81-S dollars graded before the invention of the + grade. Thought 2: Bulk submissions, which probably account for a huge amount of 81-S coins graded 65 and lower, almost never get + grades. Thought 3: You're always better off cherrypicking for quality than relying on the label, if you know what you're doing.
I think we would all prefer a straight MS65 than an MS64+, but all things being equal (including price and quality) I think most of us would prefer a 64+ to a straight 64 -- even if it's just for the sake of future resale. But picking the coin and not the holder is obviously and absolutely the way to go. The only time I've added a "+" to my collection is when there was no premium accompanying it.
In today's market where quality for the grade is everything not necessarily. If the 64+ got a CAC I would take the + CAC over a next grade up without either.
If you want to put it that way, I'd rather have a 1933 St. Gaudens Double Eagle that I could take out of the country to sell. Chris
Wellllllllll - as long as you're talking about what "you'd rather have" - I'd rather have an honest 65 than what passes for a 65 with the TPGs
I'd rather have the 450 mil painting, then I could re-auction that and get pretty much all the coins I want
Well the only way to have that would have been to have bought it for 450 million (so why didn't you buy the coins instead of the painting?), so then if you resold it right away it would probably end up going to the underbidder from the first sale for LESS and the 450 Mill you paid. So that would mean less money to buy the coins.
What I do is say "Screw the ugly plastic tomb!" and buy pretty coins I like, regardless of grade or certified status.
