Pet Peeve: that BOGUS 'a sack of Gold for a loaf of bread' adage

LOL - I'm guilty of rambling! I tend to 'workbook' : aggregate various things, to be added to (or rejected) later. Nothing's 'gospel' here.
I started 'in the middle' because as I answered the 'false adage' on the OTHER thread I realized I wanted MOSTLY to talk about this data point. Given my posting tendency (on CT) around commodity prices - PM prices primarily - this fixation should be understandable. I became FASCINATED by Sigma events, after an hour-long private discussion I had with Jeremy Grantham one year ago. (fwiw, his firm has gathered the most complete record of Bubbles in history : it's not publicly available either.)

As for Lukác, I was interested in some the topical matter, but mostly that Silver Chart. Is that correct? The OTHER chart (Hans Kloft's?) seems to show something very similar. Do we have a definitive chart for the Debasement of the Roman Denarius? Here's another.

View attachment 214858

View attachment 214859

Also: Where I am going, I have to admit someone else got there first. The Wheat-Silver Ratio!

However, I think Wayne incorrectly converts the dry measure (volume) chœnix @ 1.843 pounds avoirdupois (US); she used the lowest-weight Attic chœnix.
The chœnix, like the "pound," weighed differently by region and even by town. Faute de mieux, the known Bithynian chœnix is presumed closest to the Pisidian Antioch chœnix, given proximity (~300 km.) Caveat noted.
http://prophecyproof.blogspot.com/2011/02/revelation-66-end-times-cost-of-food.html

The Bithynian chœnix (@ Flaviopolis) was 1.5 liters or 6.34 cups, US dry measure. If 2 cups of US wheat = 1 pound avd. of US wheat, then 6.34 cups of US wheat is 3.17 lbs. avd.
I initially calc'd 2.55 lbs avd of {Asia Minor} wheat which may also be TOO LOW. Please suggest better, if you know Asia Minor Wheat Weights of the Roman Period.

As for the Harvard & MIT professors 2005/6 paper (thesis: "the Roman grain market was an integrated and efficient market") I actually agree with Bransbourg's very recent critique (revision: "the overall Roman economy was not fully integrated, although the Mediterranean Sea did create some meaningful integration along a few privileged trade routes") You will note that Bransbourg seizes upon the Pisidian Antioch price (AD 93) - wholesale basis for my hypothetical "Third Seal" retail data-point - that particular regional price is too extreme and isolated to matter to the Rome Wheat-market itself. I agree but that doesn't discount it's value here, for my purpose (Wholesale/Retail Price Peaks.)
http://dlib.nyu.edu/awdl/isaw/isaw-papers/3/#section5

Looking at the translation* of the epigram (Edict) and beyond the obvious famine & speculation in the Wheat Price Event of AD 92/3, I conclude that :
a) the typical Wheat Price of 8-9 Asses per modius was relativley higher wholesale, a normal Winter Price in normal 'famine years'
b) the Price Control Wheat Price of 1 Denarius was very high wholesale, double the typical Winter price
c) the extraordinary request/need for a price control indicates a true famine price had already occurred in that winter AD 92: 2 or even 3+ Denari per modius
d) the retail weight-price in BoR 6:6 reflects that 'shocking' multiplication to consumers; that retail inflation was well-worth summarizing in a sermon preserved for posterity
e) other Wheat-Price Spikes of greater magnitude may have occurred, but since numerous Roman historians refer to this one I will presume it's "very significant" (like the 1980 Gold Event.)

Lucius Antistius Rusticus died in AD 94. The epigram (carved in stone) was discovered in Turkey in 1924.
http://webu2.upmf-grenoble.fr/DroitRomain/Edicta/Rustici_AE.htm

*For the translation I edited/borrowed from p.286 of The Grain Market in the Roman Empire: A Social, Political and Economic Study; Paul Erdkamp
http://books.google.com/books?id=IIj9uvGtJFEC

 

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

As an aside, where at in Thailand? My wife and I have property in Lampang and are thinking of buying a place in Chiang Mai.

My food bills in Thailand are actually high, since I don't like most Thai food unfortunately.

I have gotten into Thai coins more, especially the early pieces. Do you collect these, and if so have you bought the new book out on them yet? I hear they are in stock at Riverbooks in Bangkok.

 

With all due respect, 'sometimes' not generally.
http://www.stanford.edu/~scheidel/NumTable.pdf

The Epigram and BoR 6:6 indicates correctly, here: Asses and Denarius.

The nutritional value of Wheat being constant, no different after two thousand years, the k/Cal of a certain measure valued in Silver (salary) is fairly easy to estimate. The ratio may fluctuate, that's certainly what's interesting here, and when exactly 'PMs are most dear/despised' (relatively speaking) should be of the greatest interest to bullionists.

Also:
I need to correct the Fine Silver Weight, accordingly.
AD 85-107 Denarius weight: 3.27 grs. Purity: 93.5% Fine Ag = 3.04 grams

 

Confirmed:
My caloric weight estimate (for a smaller Aramaic Greek-Jewish male engaged in heavy work) off a USDA calculator matches Leland Allbaugh's work on Krete with Greeks (in the late 1940s) : 2,400 cal/day.
http://publishing.cdlib.org/ucpress...1w&chunk.id=d0e6381&toc.depth=1&brand=ucpress

As cited in that link, the standard ration of 1 chœnix per day was no starvation diet. It was MORE than someone would consume. Why? I believe that worker's Wheat-allotment was (partly) currency, too. And when Wheat was scarce, what substituted? Where did 'more money' come from?

Hypothetical:
A 'chœnix per day' might have been given in Asses instead. In times of normal famine, the wholesale Wheat Price rose, let's say, from 5 Asses per modius* (good harvest, September) to 16 Asses (harsh Winter, February.) In the extreme situation where Price Controls were so necessary (after several years of inflation" to be engraved in stone) the speculator's wholesale price likely rose to 24-32 Asses per modius. This allows for a BoR 6:6 retail price of 16 Asses (1 denarius) per chœnix, whereas the expected retail Wheat Price in a harsh winter would have been just 8 Asses.

*in the time of Martial, say A. D. 100, corn was 4 sestertii (8 Asses) the modius at retail; considered so cheap the Spanish farmer might consume it himself (Ep. XII, 76, 12)

From Christians at Rome in the First Two Centuries: From Paul to Valentinus Peter Lampe p.194

At the destruction of Jerusalem (AD 70) Flavius Josephus reported "...a measure of wheat had been sold for a talent of Silver..." The dry-measurement for an ephah is about 36.4 litres, so about 1 bushel (USA= 60 lbs. avd; 27.22 kgs) and a common heavy talent of Silver in C.E. was 58.9 kilograms. That's 2.16 kgs Ag per kilogram of Wheat. Surely, a record price.

 

Oh i enjoy this thread!

 

Food & Money theme, in the contemporary coinage:

See Famine and Food Supply in the Graeco-Roman World: Responses to Risk and Crisis; Peter Garnsey, p. 225

Domitian's ANNONA





Nerva, AD 97:

 

I was wondering that myself. Can't see where all the cut and paste posts of his are related to Coin Chat.

 

The majority of the silver denominations cited are either pre-Roman, or merely a measure of metal. The few that do cite prices in denarii are the exceptions to prove the role. For a more complete evaluation of the debasements of the denarius, see the aforementioned book by Ken Harl.

Okay, so you are looking to correlate extreme price events for wheat with debasements of the denarius, I take it? An interesting idea, but I remain skeptical.

You seem to be falling into the dilettante's trap of pulling information from a broad swath of unconfirmed sources. This is made evident by the way in which you haphazardly mix Roman units (the denarius and the modius) with Greek units (the drachm and the choenix). You absolutely MUST gain firmer grounding in the scholarship of both the Roman economy and of diet and nutrition in the ancient world. Simply citing an (albeit scholarly) article that you found online is not enough. Stop googling and go to the library!

You're obviously quite passionate and interested in this subject. I would love to see you follow through on some more serious research. What is your economic background?

 

I would change "looking to" to "wondering if." I agree it's an interesting idea AND I too remain skeptical. Hence, my OP (a deliberately & admittedly nebulous 'theme,' rather than preconceived & explicit 'point.')

The older I get, the more I realize the questions rather than the answers are what's important to the process. In fact, I don't 'need' to be 'right.' Although I believe my corrections most accurate, this specific exercise - counting whatever amount of Wheat in whatever amount of Money - is not entirely "new." See Moses Lowman (Paraphrase and Notes..., 1737)

Errors above in Lowman's calculations above notwithstanding.

I do risk misreading things - but anyone can err, as you've shown us - with or without a specialist's expertise. I did NOT ever mention drachm nor 'hapahzardly mix chœnix & modius' either. The Roman Edict of AD 93 cited modius and the BoR 6:6 (c.AD 94) cited chœnix. The chœnix/modius was a retail/wholesale distinction familiar to any literate Koiné Greek writer then living under Roman authority in Asia Minor. Even I - pleb of the forum - can grasp that simple fact.

For dry measure, 1 Attic chœnix was taken for 2 sextarii*; and 16 sextarii = modius (550 cub. in.), and so 69 cubic inches (1.125 liters.) The Phyrgian chœnix was apparently abit more generous, 1.5 litres (according to the archaelogical evidence) but I've already noted the chœnix varies by region and perhaps town. Huge discrepancies? Perhaps so.

*fwiw: De Re Coquinaria, Book II, Chapter 2 # 51 for the recipe "Aliter de pullo" Apicius mentions a choenicem of chicken stock. Chicken stock was so well-known then too, that he didn't need to explain that chœnix was 2 sextarii.

Here is an excellent discussion of the vigorous scholarly debate on exactly how many modii were isssued to Roman soldier monthly (3, 4 or 5) and how that was reflected in the organizational structure of the Army. Food-economy, again! Based on the daily ration of 1 chœnix (=2 sextarii) I suppose the larger chœnix (at Flaviopolis) discounts the 5 modii claim (far too much grain) but allows the 4 modii assertion (32 chœnikes = 64 sextarii.)
http://www.realtechsupport.org/temp/IoT/texts/IoT_Logistics_of_the_Roman_Army_at_War.pdf

Domitian increased the soldier's pay: there's debate how much. From 900 sesterii to 1,200 sesterii? Paid thrice annually, that's an increase from 75 Denarii > 100 Denarii.
From 10 > 13 Asses per day? Or paid quarterly, from 13.15 > 17.53 Asses per day. The later suggests the daily wage of 1 denarius, fwiw
http://www.roman-empire.net/emperors/domitian-index.html

 

If someone wished to simply see how debasement affected pricing, I believe a simplistic study would be to take the metrics of coinage and lay them against soldier's pay, (something there is a lot of data for). Soldiers generally got treated fairly in the Roman empire, (if an emperor wished to stay in power), so using their salaries as a proxy for general price levels would be a simple form of inflation assumptions. The only caveat would be to use only general soldier's pay, and also account for any commodities they received in addition to cash payments.

The metrics as to commodity value of metal coinage can be found in loads of places as well.

Ardatirion, I know it would not be perfect, but just suggesting a simpler method of making this comparison if this is what he is getting at. If Juan is trying to blame major price spikes of grain only on currency debasement, I would never buy such an argument unless supplemented with other commodity pricing since to do so would completely ignore weather conditions, (something which with $7.50 corn this year the US should be well aware of).

 

medoraman-
If I am reading the right 'intrinsic rates,' I don't think Domitian debased the coinage much at the end of his reign (-4.6%) ; on the contrary, it appears he improved the denarius purity from his predecessor.

Here's another excellent source on the Denarius debasement (p.230):
http://historiantigua.cl/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/MoneyandGovernmentintheRomanEmpire.pdf

Domitian AD 81/2: 91.5% Fine
Domitian AD 82/5: 97.9% Fine
Domitian AD 85-96: 93.5% Fine

More generally, I'm not sure it's either/or (weather OR currency debasement) - I suppose commodity price inflation might be driven more by polices (wages, maybe even taxes?) coincident with a famine lasting several years for this Wheat Price Event in AD 93.

It's certainly NOWHERE REMOTELY CLOSE to the very localized AD 70 Wheat Price Event (siege of Jerusalem) described by Josephus Flavius ... and maybe that's what got conflated in the 'sack of Gold/plate of food' adage.

But Domitian's cereal policy (response to scarcity) would seem less localized to Antioch in Pisidia if the Emperor's concern for Food were more explicitly advertised on coinage throughout the Empire. As an early Price-Shock (about 14 years before Trajan's debasement) and the "linear decline" thereafter reported by Duncan-Jones, might it be a cyclical signal?

 

Wasn't the 70 Wheat price event in Israel, or am I wrong? I thought Josephus was writing what was happening in Israel as a result of the insurrection, which would completely make sense. Its common during a war and immediately after to have catastrophic food prices.

I am not disagreeing sir with your original premise as stated, just thinking there is simpler ways to disprove it. However, if that saying originated in a war zone, then sky is the limit.

 

Starting from Nero:
Augustan issues, to 64 AD - 84 denarii to the pound, at 98.5% fineness
64 - Nero - 96 to the pound, 93 fineness
68 - Galba - early issues of 96.5% fine, soon returned to Neronian standard
70 - Vespasian - theoretical 89% fine, wavering as low as 80%
82 - Domitian - returned to Augustan standard of 98.5% fine, with Neronian weight of 96 to the pound
85 - Domitian - returned again to Neronian fineness of 93%

Harl, p. 91-2

For the last time, go get a copy of Harl's book and read it. All of the information you're wondering about is in there. I'm going to wait until you first do that, then develop a defined thesis statement. Only then will I contribute to further ramblings. :smile

EDIT: Thank you for the link to the Jones book. I will be reading that shortly. Did you read the whole thing, or merely skim to the part you needed?

 

Indeed. Or not quite? On Page 1, I suppose a number of those other years/localized events bear scrutiny for any purported 'End-of-Days' price metric. But that's still with regards the adage.

 

Out of curiosity, what is the chapter and verse of the relevant passage from Revelations?

 

Cited, Page 1. BoR 6:6

(Bear with me: as completed, I'll add Wheat/Silver charts to illustrate volatility in different periods, for comparison. )

 

Case in point - I have no idea why you would cite that chart in that particular post.

My Harper Collin's Study Bible translates the passage idiomatically, "a ration of wheat for a day's pay," while the King James translation gives "a measure of wheat for a penny." Penny, in the later case, being a 17th cent. parallel to the denarius. N.B. - the Bible is in this instance a legitimate historical source of the first century AD, but must be viewed with extreme caution, as Biblical interpretation often gets carried away with itself.

 

Low-information interpretations/ translations suffer 'dumbing down for the masses.' Go to the Vulgate or better yet, the original Greek for the correct data (primary source.)
{Link Edited my Juan Blanco, for respect of Terms}
G5518 χοινιξ (A CHOENIX)....G4621 σιτου (OF WHEAT).... G1220 δηναριου (FOR A DENARIUS)

A silver Denarius from Domitian's Reign was never 'worth a penny' in King James' time or thereafter. (In 1611, a Troy ounce of Gold was worth £3.73 and Silver per Troy Ounce £0.25, or 1:14.92). Discounting for bullion and assuming no numismatic value, at the weight of 3.0 grams pure Ag the Domitian Denarius was intrinsically worth nearly a Sixpence (5.79 Pence = say, 2 Half-Groats, a Penny and a Ha'penny) ; the Sixpence of James I weighed ~3 grams.

By the time of King James I, the English standard "penny" however was only ~0.5 grams.

The King James I Sixpence:

View attachment 215334


The King James I Penny:
View attachment 215336

 

Ok guys, we have been skating on the edge of religious beliefs and interpretations that other religious fractions might feel out of place on this forum.

So please wrap this up and no more biblical or other religious quotes or attachmnts.

Thanks
Jim