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<p>[QUOTE="GDJMSP, post: 10340261, member: 112"]Well, you're talking about prices and I was talking about popularity (the number of collectors collecting given coins). And the two things do not always equate to each other. Now sometimes they do, but at other times they most definitely do not. And we must also remember that at times when prices drop, popularity can increase precisely because prices dropped. Coins that were unaffordable to many and were therefore not collected, suddenly start being collected because they became affordable. We must also remember that popularity cannot be judged and or measured by looking at market price charts. Popularity can only measured by reports and discussions on coin forums and in the numismatic press.</p><p><br /></p><p>As for the huge price drops in Franklins and commems that you mention. Were they really all that huge, or more significant than the price drops in the market in general or other market segments ? I'll grant you, you're absolutely correct when it comes to commems they suffered larger decreases than pretty much anything else, nor have they recovered like everything else did. But the small denomination coins, they weren't much different than anything else when it comes to percentage decreases. Were they exactly the same ? Of course not, but not all that different. To see all of that, simply look at the 10 year charts and the '70 to date charts.</p><p><br /></p><p>I will grant you however that even though percentage increases/decreases are similar, small denomination coins do track differently than other market segments, and they always have. Historically they reach their highs and lows at different times than other market segments. And the two indexes that we have to follow for small denomination coins - Mint State Type Coin Index and 20th Century Coin Index - can even be contradictory to each other at times. Granted, these indexes are different from each other but they, and the 3000 index, are the only ones we have that contain small denomination coins.</p><p><br /></p><p>For example, look at the 10 year charts for the two and compare them to each other. </p><p><a href="https://www.pcgs.com/prices/coin-index/mint-state-type" target="_blank" class="externalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="https://www.pcgs.com/prices/coin-index/mint-state-type" rel="nofollow">https://www.pcgs.com/prices/coin-index/mint-state-type</a></p><p><br /></p><p><a href="https://www.pcgs.com/prices/coin-index/twentieth-century" target="_blank" class="externalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="https://www.pcgs.com/prices/coin-index/twentieth-century" rel="nofollow">https://www.pcgs.com/prices/coin-index/twentieth-century</a></p><p><br /></p><p>To see an even bigger contradiction look at these charts from back in July of 2015.</p><p><br /></p><p>[ATTACH=full]1523455[/ATTACH] </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>[ATTACH=full]1523456[/ATTACH] </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>They both come from exactly the same time but both show completely different things. The most surprising thing to me is that the 20th Century index reached its high in 2004 and its low in 2012. While the Mint State Type index pretty much mirrored the market as a whole in regard to timing and relative percentages. And when it comes to recovery, those two indexes have reversed positions yet again. With recovery the 20th Century index has mirrored the market and regained its losses while the MS Type index has come nowhere close to recovering yet.</p><p><br /></p><p>To me, another example that the "whys" don't matter, but history does.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="GDJMSP, post: 10340261, member: 112"]Well, you're talking about prices and I was talking about popularity (the number of collectors collecting given coins). And the two things do not always equate to each other. Now sometimes they do, but at other times they most definitely do not. And we must also remember that at times when prices drop, popularity can increase precisely because prices dropped. Coins that were unaffordable to many and were therefore not collected, suddenly start being collected because they became affordable. We must also remember that popularity cannot be judged and or measured by looking at market price charts. Popularity can only measured by reports and discussions on coin forums and in the numismatic press. As for the huge price drops in Franklins and commems that you mention. Were they really all that huge, or more significant than the price drops in the market in general or other market segments ? I'll grant you, you're absolutely correct when it comes to commems they suffered larger decreases than pretty much anything else, nor have they recovered like everything else did. But the small denomination coins, they weren't much different than anything else when it comes to percentage decreases. Were they exactly the same ? Of course not, but not all that different. To see all of that, simply look at the 10 year charts and the '70 to date charts. I will grant you however that even though percentage increases/decreases are similar, small denomination coins do track differently than other market segments, and they always have. Historically they reach their highs and lows at different times than other market segments. And the two indexes that we have to follow for small denomination coins - Mint State Type Coin Index and 20th Century Coin Index - can even be contradictory to each other at times. Granted, these indexes are different from each other but they, and the 3000 index, are the only ones we have that contain small denomination coins. For example, look at the 10 year charts for the two and compare them to each other. [URL]https://www.pcgs.com/prices/coin-index/mint-state-type[/URL] [URL]https://www.pcgs.com/prices/coin-index/twentieth-century[/URL] To see an even bigger contradiction look at these charts from back in July of 2015. [ATTACH=full]1523455[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=full]1523456[/ATTACH] They both come from exactly the same time but both show completely different things. The most surprising thing to me is that the 20th Century index reached its high in 2004 and its low in 2012. While the Mint State Type index pretty much mirrored the market as a whole in regard to timing and relative percentages. And when it comes to recovery, those two indexes have reversed positions yet again. With recovery the 20th Century index has mirrored the market and regained its losses while the MS Type index has come nowhere close to recovering yet. To me, another example that the "whys" don't matter, but history does.[/QUOTE]
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