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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;GDJMSP, post: 7844049, member: 112&quot;]If I understand correctly you have two basic questions.</p><p>1 - is stated in the quote above and I believe the answer to that one is a resounding yes !</p><p><br /></p><p>[ATTACH=full]1349911[/ATTACH]</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>And question #2 - you want to know why it has. Well, one could speculate and come up with all kinds of different reasons. But in the end I have always believed that when it comes to the sustained movement of any market, in either direction, the biggest underlying reason is typically basic human psychology.</p><p><br /></p><p>In this case I believe it started because simply thought that after 12 years of steady dropping that the market had finally reached its bottom, and they began buying. As you can see from the chart above that had occurred twice before. But the upturn was tentative the first time, moving slowly upward for about 2 years and only a small percentage. Only to fall back again even faster and much further than before. The second time it moved more quickly and more aggressively, only to reverse course and drop yet some more. In both cases it appears that people simply didn&#039;t believe that the upturn was sustainable.</p><p><br /></p><p>This time it started off a little tentatively at first, stayed fairly steady direction wise for about a year, and then took off like the proverbial scalded cat. Making a strong and fairly consistent climb. This kind of movement, in either direction, is usually attributable to what is commonly called jumping on the bandwagon. Simply put, after 12 years of sustained drop people are tired of seeing it and will reach out and grab any excuse to jump on board and ride the market up.</p><p><br /></p><p>Again, typically, this kind of movement doesn&#039;t usually last very long because usually sooner rather than later people see an opportunity to take profits. And, fast aggressive movement makes people nervous for they fear it cannot last. Couple that with profit taking that is occurring and the market will reverse course. Often for a short time, and then it will reverse again only this time on a slower and more steady rate.</p><p><br /></p><p>Steady and consistent is what people want to see. That is what they have faith in, that is what they believe will last. People&#039;s beliefs, their psychology, is driven by two things, fear and confidence, and both are very powerful forces. But, they are also both quite fragile so that psychology can easily and quickly change for any number of reasons. And typically there are quite a few of them - different reasons for different people. And none of them, or even all, of them may be valid reasons. And that is the nature of psychology, that is the nature of humans. And human nature is the single most powerful force there is when it comes to the movement of markets - any market.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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