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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Blake Davis, post: 3062325, member: 91820&quot;]You are correct - I have always wondered about estimates like these.&nbsp; All that one can for certain is that nothing is for certain.&nbsp; Here is a story: I was lucky enough to find an example of a Domitian sestertius, from COS IIII &quot;PAX AUGUSTI.&quot;&nbsp; This coin is not listed in RIC, so rare, right? Maybe unique? A year or so after I found my coin CNG lists one in CNG 67, Lot 1382, same obverse, different reverse die.&nbsp; I then discovered a severely tooled example from the same reverse die as the CNG example on VCOINS, which was sold not long after it was offered. I then found another one on ebay, with the same reverse die as the one I had. And finally, I discovered a very high grade example that was sold by NAC.&nbsp; </p><p><br /></p><p>So I went from thinking I had a &quot;unique&quot; coin to a &quot;population&quot; of at least five from two reverse dies - and (I think) two obverse dies.&nbsp; A rare coin? No doubt - but then again it may turn out there are are many more out there.&nbsp; It seems that one example seems to show up every year.</p><p><br /></p><p>This is another wonderful thing about ancient coins - &quot;rarity&quot; is a flexible concept - that &quot;ultra&quot; rare coin could end up just being rare.&nbsp; I do not have a problem with that - if more that can get into the hands of collectors at the lowest possible price is just fine with me.&nbsp; </p><p><br /></p><p>Ok, another example - I know someone who collects only one type of obscure ancient - antoninianii of Gallienus, with &quot;SPQR&quot; on the reverse - these were all struck at the Antioch mint, I believe.&nbsp; But, he is not the only collector who focuses on this one obscure type - I think at least thre other collectors all have the same interest, and they all compete with each other, so that this type, which should sell for about $40 in collectable condition can cost in the hundreds, as those with an interest bid. My recollection is that he has over 380 examples of this one type, the others have somewhat less - again based on my recollection. (I do hope he is a member and can correct me if I am off). That reflects a &quot;population&quot; of somewhat less than a thousand among these three plus those who collect - but how to estimate all of it?&nbsp; I guess that the total of the three who collect this type would allow one to get at a rough estimate, but that is all it would be![/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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