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Numismatic Rarity vs Coin Value, my simple analysis
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<p>[QUOTE="geekpryde, post: 1938585, member: 36248"]I love this part. Having spent years on financial blogs, forums, and reading every book I could find on Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) / Efficient Market Theory (EMT), I understand this concept well, but since Coins are a hobby to me, I haven't really thought of the "Coin Market" the same way I think of "Mr. Market" (allegory created by investor Benjamin Graham). I should have connected the two long ago, but then again I am not trying to make money in coins, just trying to purchase smartly. When I was checking for my rarest coin, it was purely out of curiosity. But you are correct, PCGS rarity scale is potentially flawed in many ways, and possibly should be totally ignored as you state. </p><p><br /></p><p>A quick summary of EMT: </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>So, if I replace <i>"stock market" </i>with <i>"rare coin market", </i>lets see what we have:</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>So, in this sense, my rarest coin would be my most valuable coin, after perhaps accounting for base-metal value. The coin market factors things in such as current popularity, absolute rarity, conditional rarity, toning premium, and many other factors.</p><p><br /></p><p>So, my rarest coin that I own according to ECMT would be my 1853 HALF DOLLAR - SEATED LIBERTY, ARROWS & RAYS PCGS MS 40 ARROWS & RAYS, CAC.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="geekpryde, post: 1938585, member: 36248"]I love this part. Having spent years on financial blogs, forums, and reading every book I could find on Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) / Efficient Market Theory (EMT), I understand this concept well, but since Coins are a hobby to me, I haven't really thought of the "Coin Market" the same way I think of "Mr. Market" (allegory created by investor Benjamin Graham). I should have connected the two long ago, but then again I am not trying to make money in coins, just trying to purchase smartly. When I was checking for my rarest coin, it was purely out of curiosity. But you are correct, PCGS rarity scale is potentially flawed in many ways, and possibly should be totally ignored as you state. A quick summary of EMT: So, if I replace [I]"stock market" [/I]with [I]"rare coin market", [/I]lets see what we have: So, in this sense, my rarest coin would be my most valuable coin, after perhaps accounting for base-metal value. The coin market factors things in such as current popularity, absolute rarity, conditional rarity, toning premium, and many other factors. So, my rarest coin that I own according to ECMT would be my 1853 HALF DOLLAR - SEATED LIBERTY, ARROWS & RAYS PCGS MS 40 ARROWS & RAYS, CAC.[/QUOTE]
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Numismatic Rarity vs Coin Value, my simple analysis
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