NGC Price Guide vs eBay

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Let's see if I understand pricing of coins. I understand that each sale is special because it is based on how bad you want the coin and are you willing to wait for a "better" price, but in general terms here is my understanding.
Numismedia Price Guide is a desired retail price = $100
Wholesale / Auction price s/b 80% = 80
Auction fee is 15% = 92

Thus the a "fair" price is approx. 8% below the price guides? That's what I'll use for my inventory sheets as "Market Value"...Thanks

My eBay experience has been that sometimes I get lucky and pick up a coin at around retail, if no one else is watching eBay LOL

 

Also, don't overlook the importance of the Heritage archives even if they are a few years old. That in itself is significant information. The frequency of trading is a factor in the hammer prices .

 

There is a difference between auction results and retail pricing that is lost on a few who should know better.

If we were talking about cars, it would be the difference between invoice price and MSRP.

 

Kind of. Each market is unique. Completed eBay auctions are a good way to value transactions, just as Heritage's auctions are.

However, "market value" is a term which requires some clarification before it's meaningful. Do you define it as price realized on the open market (i.e. in an auction)? Do you include the juice (i.e. buyers premium) or just the amount the seller gets? How about the amount of money a dealer would pay you for the coin in cash in a sight-seen transaction? How about how much someone could sell the coin to another collector for? How about how much a dealer can sell a coin in a retail transaction for?

All of these result in slightly different answers, and thus you really need to define the term "market value" in a bit more detail before a productive conversation around what's the best guide can be started.

 

Unless the collectors view the coins themselves, or have the coins viewed for them, collectors are still at a huge disadvantage -- the dealers generally view the auction coins in-hand, whereas most collectors only have the auction photos to judge the coin from. And we all know the pitfalls of judging coins from photos.

This gives the dealers and others who view the coins in-hand a HUGE advantage.

 

There is no way that you are going to put together a top notch set at 10% above ask price. Most Greysheet prices are for average quality pieces, with superb pieces selling for much more. I'd also like to see someone purchase quality (MS65++++-MS68, with an emphasis on the latter) coins at Greysheet (if the Greysheet even lists these materials - it has been a while since I have looked at it). My experience is that sellers will become angry, and when you have a small population of coins with a high demand, then you don't have a lot of options. In fact, I have seen people paying above Numismedia and PCGS Price Guide values for certain issues particularly with the Draped Bust or Capped Bust series. You won't believe how many people have become enraged at me for offering a bit above Bid to Ask prices on various high grade coins (even some silver commemoratives that haven't been doing too well). For these materials, I believe that the auctions are more representative.

My comments only apply to higher end material. Some of the more common stuff may be sold at deep discounts, I'm not contesting this. And by common, I mean coins typically valued at less than $750 (maybe even $500) or modern pieces (including those that may be scare as condition rarities).

 

Market Price generally means Net Sales - proceeds realized after ALL direct selling expenses ( shipping, fees, commissions, taxes, etc.) are deducted.

People would not use Heritage or eBay, if they could sell an item direct for more than they net after expenses at an auction. At least I wouldn't.

I consider my Purchase Price to include the direct costs to acquire an item ( shipping, commissions, auction fees, taxes, net of any discounts ( cash back on use of credit cards and eBay Bucks)

 

This happens every day and it amazes me too. Every day auctions close on eBay where the seller is realizing less money than if they had just sold directly to Modern Coin Mart or APMEX. I realize some sellers are unaware but many of these sales are from large coin dealers also.

I have been able to find many pieces on eBay that I can buy for UNDER the current APMEX or Modern Coin Mart buy price. The seller then has to pay eBay/PayPal fees........blows me away!

P.S. There was a Bowers & Merena auction last month where several PCGS MS63 $20 Liberty's sold for $1466/each with the buyer's premium! APMEX buy price was $1900 for them sight-unseen!

 

Sellers might lose a little on a few auctions, but the reason they put them up for auction with no reserve is to drive interest. I for one look at no reserve auctions almost exclusively, and many others do as well, so you greatly increase competition by selling this way. Even for those items listed on Ebay, I bet the seller made extra profit on his others sales. Most of these guys list multiple auctions, and realize they will lose on some but overall get a good return.

 

Overall, market guides are priced too high for common items, too low for rare items, and about right for mid range items. This is true for printed or online retail pricing. I would say if you "price" your inventory 8% below retail that is still high, unless you have rare items. Regarding Ebay, I never pull the trigger unless I figure it is at least half retail, most of the time less than that. Do not fall in love with a coin and bid it up to retail or higher, there will be another along shortly. I see weakness in the market right now, this is not the time to be paying retail.

I agree with about everything Doug says, its amazing how much below "book" dealers buy items. This is as it should be, they need to make a living.

 

Yup it does. Seeing coins in person absolutely is a huge advantage, one which serious buyers spend thousands or tens of thousands a year for. If this is important to you, do what I do and hire a dealer to represent you in person. I am sure I have avoided thousands of dollars in mistakes by doing this, for just a small fee. I have never bought a lot from an overseas auction firm without it being viewed in person by someone I trust.

Chris

 

Maybe so. Sometimes people pay for convenience too. My only problem is that you act as if Heritage is the end all source for pricing. It may be one of the lower sources, but not the only source. Depending on what you're selling, Ebay may or may not be a better choice than Heritage. The classifieds here may be a better source. Do you think Heritage has the coverage that Ebay does? I never heard of them before somebody mentioned it here. I think they primarily cater to the high end collector who has money to burn. $10k coins are out of my range, but that'd be the place to go if I wanted to find one.

Many times, Heritage doesn't have the selection I'm looking for either. They may have 30 examples of an entire series, where on ebay you can find 30 examples of a given date. And you don't have to wait 30 days for the auction to end. There's just more people on ebay and surprisingly, the fees (that everybody complain about) are lower!

There's a $10 Eagle I've been watching for the past 30 days on Heritage. The current bid is $850 but then the 15% Buyer's premium actually makes the actual current price $977.50. The next minimum bid is $50 more which pushes the actual price of the next bid to $1035.00 with buyer's premium.

Once it hits a thousand, the minimum bid increments go to $100 plus the 15% BP! With many coins, it's like the first person to get to that level wins. The price where it's at might be just under what it should be. But the next min. bid sends it over $115 more which may be too much. So there won't be any more bids. Now you're playing with $100+ at a time which can lead to huge discrepancies vs. any list price. You might get two nuts fighting over the same coin that push the price through the roof. Because they have to, because of the minimum bid increments of over $100. Two wild bids can put a coin $250 over listed value. Would it happen to the same coin on ebay? Maybe, but not likely.

I know some people love Heritage but many people are not used to min. bids and buyer's premiums like that and don't care for them. Including me. You posted some low sales that were great. But I don't have the patience to wait 12 months for something I want to show up.

 

This has been without a doubt the most informative thread on coin values and pricing that I have read in the short 6 mos since I became a member. Thanks to all for sharing all your experience and opinions.

 

I don't think there's a single guide that projects the "market price" as you do. To the best of my knowledge, none of them include shipping or taxes, for instance.

The problem is not the price guide, per se, but rather how one USES the price guide (which was the issue I was trying to get at with the second paragraph of my original response).

For example....

Greysheet is how most coin dealers buy coins (e.g. Greysheet bid). Some even use it to price coins (e.g. Greysheet ask). The prices are cash prices, generally sans taxes. It's a very good guide for many coins, and not a good guide for quite a few. The key is knowing which is which.

PCGS & NGC price guides are retail price guides. Think "Trends" or "Redbook" type pricing. How much you can walk up to a coin dealer in a large show and purchase a coin in a retail transaction. Like all guides, it's accurate for some coins (18th and 19th century type coins, for example) and not so accurate for others, particularly those with thin retail channels (most moderns, for example).

Heritage, Stacks, eBay, TT, etc. are auction sites. Actual transactions completed and the ability to see a photo are huge advantages. They are by default are the best and most up to date guide. However, many of the costs on both the buy and particularly the sell side are not well understood by many collectors.

This brings up some interesting situations...

If you can find a dealer who buys and sells from the greysheet, and know those coins that never really sell for greaysheet in the open market, you can take advantage of this (or be taken advantage of). A good example would be mid-grade barbers in semi-key dates, which are notoriously low on greysheet.

Particularly PQ coins will sell for more money. But not to the dealer who buys and sells from Greysheet. Sell those coins to other collectors directly, or to one of the dealers who specializes in them to maximinze your selling price.

Don't expect to sell your coins for retail price guide money. This is even moreso for modern coins. If you are going to try, you're best trying to sell directly to other collectors via something like the classifieds or other collector-to-collector transactions. Otherwise you're looking at a minimum of 10% and likely more like 20+% in transaction fees (i.e. for every $100 you sell a coin for, you'll be lucky to pocket $80, and that's before any federal income taxes on the profit).

 

One of the reasons I like to use Heritage when I am researching prices is that I can look at a coin in which I am interested, and there on the same page are the price guide prices, and also the last realized auction prices of a similar coin together with dates sold. I usually see a grouping of prices, with one or two anomalies (like 4 sold at around $700, and one sold at $1200). Since all of the realized auctions are hyperlinks, I usually click on the anomaly and look at the pics and the description -- it will usually be one that was featured in the catalogue and had some particular feature that made the price higher than the others). The grouping generally gives you a quick idea of the general going price on the auctions, and the dates of the auctions help with the time spread. I like the fact that you can see the actual prices paid for other similar coins and see their pictures (and any Heritage write up from the catalogue) to make your own assessment on the coin you are interested in. It's not the only thing, but it is very fast to do. You can do this for any coin in any current auction, or use their auction archives to do see the same results by searching for the coin of interest. Also, if you are looking at a coin on the Bay, then go to Heritage, look it up, see other representative samples that actually sold and the typical price they sold for, then determine your bid price for the Bay.

 

One Big advantage to eBay is their guaranty of satisfaction.

When purchasing on the internet, even with great photos of the item to be purchased, and dealing with folks who have good reputations and excellent feedback...things change. I used to have several rental properties. I would check people's credit, interview them in person, but sh** happens to cause a good person to become financially unreliable.

A few months ago I won eBay auctions for 3 rolls (60 oz) of 2010 ASE. I exchanged emails with the seller concerning combining the shipping for the three rolls, and reducing the S&H. All went well. I sent the funds via PayPal - $1266. After a few days i requested trackng info on the shipment. No response. In total, I sent five emails concerning tracking info. Silence. After about ten days I contacted eBay and reported that the goods had not been delivered.
The eBay seller had been selling many ASE rolls. The last time I checked there was 14 others who had left negative feedback and had been stiffed on ASE rolls.
Two weeks after filing my report on eBay I received a full refund for the $1266 from eBay.
The ebay guaranty makes me feel very comfortable in purchasing on eBay. I have had approximately 300 eBay transactions and only this unresolved issue that eBay corrected immediately.
Doing business, out of state, via the internet, can cause problems in resolving disputes. Even reputable dealers will have some unsatisfied customers. Having eBay on the buyer's side is a powerful plus when buying on the internet.