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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Andrew McCabe, post: 7725775, member: 90666&quot;]25% which is as it should be. I want to buy cheaper than the typical range of prior sales but I do like the occasional success</p><p><br /></p><p>However, when there is undisclosed information about a coin (provenance, rare variety etc) my success rate rises to 75% because &quot;price ranges of past sales&quot; are now higher due to rarity / provenance etc. This includes buying slabbed coins that have been undergraded as many modern collectors look at the grade and not at the coin.</p><p><br /></p><p>Another example of undisclosed information is when there has been a host of fakes on the market, but the coin I&#039;m bidding on is genuine (because I know). Those who are aware of the fakes are scared to bid and those who don&#039;t know about the fakes just think the type is common. The Murcus below, mine, came originally from a 1960 Jean Vinchon sale via a more recent auction (where the provenance wasn&#039;t disclosed, I discovered by research, #DoTheWork ); the dies are of finer style than is usual for the issue but are known for over a century</p><p>[ATTACH=full]1324109[/ATTACH]</p><p><br /></p><p>Many (very many) of the Murcus types sold in the last decade are modern forgeries (and of course do not have old provenances) yet have sold for much more, as fakes, than my old provenance genuine example. I paid about one third the typical going rate for a coin of this quality because by the time my coin came up for sale, the market was spooked by fakes (if you knew) and abundance (if you didn&#039;t know). In time the fakes will get weeded out and my old provenanced coin will be worth a lot more[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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