My Thoughts on the Morgan 2021 Silver Dollar

Discussion in 'US Coins Forum' started by Matthew Kruse, Apr 15, 2021.

  1. Matthew Kruse

    Matthew Kruse Young Numismatist

    I know that there is a lot of hype around these new coins to commemorate the 100 year anniversary of the end of Morgan dollars and the beginning of Peace dollars, so in this thread, I will simply say what I think about the new coin and how people will react.

    First of all, it is a very nice coin and I think it will be in high demand, especially because Morgan dollars are one of the most collected US coins and certainly one of the most iconic. I will want to get one for my personal collection once it is released because I like the Morgan dollar and think its a very important coin.

    I have a few problems with the coin, regardless of if the US Mint sells it coin in an orderly manner or not. As stated on the US Mint website, the coin will be 99.9% silver and weigh 0.858 troy oz. In my opinion, I would very much prefer the coin to be 90% silver and weigh the same amount as the original. Or at the very least, make the coin a full troy oz, being 99.9%.

    One thing I notice is that there is no mintage limit and you can buy 25 per household. The US Mint can make as many of these coins as they want, selling them for $85 each. I can understand why there is no mintage limit, but buyers should beware that the more there are, the less they will be worth. I really don't think the 25 per household is that great of an idea. This is encouraging resellers to buy and flip 25 of these on eBay. Nobody will actually buy and keep 25 of these coins for there personal collection.

    Which brings me to my next point. FULL DISCLOSURE: I am just a 15 year old coin collector, so you shouldn't listen to me for financial advice. These are just my thoughts and predictions. As for resale value, I do not expect them to hold much of their value for much more than a month or so after they are sold, mainly because there is no mintage limit. There will be a lot of hype during and after they are sold, but it will likely die down shortly after. I believe there will be many presales and everything on eBay for much more than the US Mint is selling them, and the peak will be reached during the week after they are first sold. I expect some sales to reach $250 but most of them being around the $150-200 range during the first week. Once the mint is done selling them, I would expect them to be going for around $100-$150 just because people are talking about them less and are moving on to the next coin releases.

    These are my opinions. Some might be right and some might be wrong, but only time will tell. Let me know what you think below, I'd like to hear other opinions about the coin and what they think will happen.

    [​IMG]
     
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  3. dan smith

    dan smith New Member

    I was going to buy 2 of all of them. One for me and one for my grandson. After the games the mint is playing I may not order any. I can buy real Morgan and Peace dollars for less than $85, really these are just another commemorative coin when I think about it.
     
  4. furryfrog02

    furryfrog02 Well-Known Member

    I think you are pretty spot on. Wise beyond your years.
     
  5. potty dollar 1878

    potty dollar 1878 Well-Known Member

    The design and details are terrible with also the fact the mint didn't honor the choice of its original composition which i expected them to do after all there only after money just another bullion coin to me i can get 3-4 of them for $85.
     
    GoldFinger1969 and furryfrog02 like this.
  6. mrweaseluv

    mrweaseluv Supporter! Supporter

    I'll be getting one (possibly one of each for a full set) but that's it.. don't expect them to skyrocket like the 75privy marks did but yeah there will be a rush to get the 1st day grading and 1st 70s slabbed :D
     
  7. COOPER12

    COOPER12 Well-Known Member

    I thought there was a 175k mintage limit
     
    GoldFinger1969 likes this.
  8. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

  9. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

  10. Matthew Kruse

    Matthew Kruse Young Numismatist

    There is a 175k product limit, not a mintage limit.
     
    JeffC likes this.
  11. Matthew Kruse

    Matthew Kruse Young Numismatist

    Wdym?
     
  12. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Had a nice post and accidentally posted it 3 times....and then deleted them all !! :banghead:

    Anyway....I was saying that with mintage unlimited, I expect the $85 price to be a floor that the price will come back to. Even though that's a big premium to silver, I doubt prices fall below that. Could....but I'll leave that to the folks who buy more OGP stuff from the Mint.

    This clearly isn't another 2019-S ASE. But like it, the price will move to a nice premium once the grading premiums accrue to PF70's and PF69's and other niche labels.
     
    Matthew Kruse likes this.
  13. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    BTW, very nice post Matthew......good stuff from a 15-year old. :D

    And....cut it out, your'e making us old fogies look bad !!! :mad:

    :D
     
    jamor1960 and Matthew Kruse like this.
  14. Matthew Kruse

    Matthew Kruse Young Numismatist

    Thanks for the kind words. Don’t worry, I won’t make posts like this much, lol. I figure that with no mintage limit, they are going to make tons of these, because it’s such an iconic coin. Unlike the V75 and reverse proof and everything with a fixed amount, these could end up being a lot less valuable than people expect.
     
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  15. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Matthew, I agree with your price range. The PF70's should move to the higher end of your range, PF69's at $150 or so are a nice profit for the seller and still affordable to most.

    People who are buying 1 or 2 and want them graded/slabbed will chase. I know....I'm one of them. :D But if the price for a 70 gets too high, many (like me) will settle for a 69 UCAM.
     
    Matthew Kruse likes this.
  16. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    And it's why we always say here: make sure you like the coin and if it falls 25% or 50% from the price you pay, if it will cause you financial problems or aggravation, don't buy it.

    If I buy a PF70 UCAM for $250 and 2 years from now it is selling for $110, it's not going to matter to me.

    Now...someone speculating on silver (don't ask me why they play that through this coin) and buying 25 or 50 or 100 of them for $250 each is in danger of losing some nice $$$ unless they make a 6- or 7-figure salary.
     
    Matthew Kruse likes this.
  17. thomas mozzillo

    thomas mozzillo Supporter! Supporter

    I hope to buy one of each. I'm not worried about making a profit because IMO coins are one of the worst investments to make. Whoever winds up with my collection will be making the profit as they're getting it for $0.00. Collecting is about enjoyment
     
  18. Matthew Kruse

    Matthew Kruse Young Numismatist

    I agree that coin collecting should be for enjoyment, not for money. I enjoy coin collecting but I also think it is nice if you can make money doing what you love. It’s not work if you love what you do! ;) (Extra money to buy more coins:))
     
  19. eddiespin

    eddiespin Fast Eddie

    You covered it very well. I hadn't given the release much attention, so this was thought-provoking. And you're only 15, and not one run-on sentence--amazing! :)
     
    Matthew Kruse likes this.
  20. masterswimmer

    masterswimmer Well-Known Member

    @Matthew Kruse Impressive thoughts coming from a YN. You leave me with some hope for the future of our country.

    Now as for these Morgan's & Peace releases. I'm likely going to pass on the original release from the mint. If I do decide to pick any of them up for my collection it'll be on the secondary market after the hype dies down. That could be in six months, a year or even two years. I'm in no rush to lay down good money today for what think will be a losing proposition, value wise, sometime down the road. There will always be some available for sale when I'm ready to pay the piper.
     
  21. Robert Ransom

    Robert Ransom Well-Known Member

    A !5 year old utilizing the succinct vocabulary/thought process of a seasoned adult is a refreshing read. I wish more young people would invest in their ability to convey their thoughts in the manner in which you have.
    As one of the "Old Goats" on CT, I pretty much agree with you regarding the direction of supply/pricing/time-frame and you are correct in your "time will tell' comment.
    PS. I am a fan of the Morgan, be it horse or dollar. :)
     
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