My analysis of the PCGS 3000 Index

The only index I care about is "what can I buy a coin for on ebay" and lately it isn't pretty. I was just telling someone the other day I hope coin shows come back because anything I'm looking at that I need, which is some obscure stuff now, can't be found below the major TPG price guides. Some may be slightly below or right at but there seems to be huge premiums on rarer, lower grade stuff. A VF that might book for $55 on the price guide might be $110 on ebay. Sometimes stuff is priced hundreds of dollars above price guide. And then I get notifications in my e-mail that stuff I looked at yesterday is no longer available because someone purchased.

Does the index include trade dollars or 1840 No drapery dimes or half dimes? The US Mint sold 5x their normal amount of gold coins to begin this year and 20% more silver bullion than this time last year. Biggest year since 1999. Not a big correlation but it's clear that demand is high despite high premiums and a $800 shield with rays nickel you look at today may not be there tomorrow. To me, I don't care if a $14k coin dropped to $12k this year. It's too far out of my league and the "rare coin market" is full of these coins that most on this forum never look at.
I personally just bought a high MS, 1918 Illinois centennial commemorative and sent it in for grading. They only made 100k of them and I got it for under $150. If nobody wants them or is looking at them then it was the perfect time to buy. Why would I want to pay more for the same thing? It's a gorgeous coins designed by George T. Morgan and John R Sinnock, the guy that designed the Franklin half. I can't believe there aren't 100k collectors in Illinois that wouldn't want one. I think the classics are awesome and that's not my main collecting focus at all. But, you have a lot of in the moment collectors that have to have everything 2021 during 2021 and then 2022 rolls around and nobody cares about 2021 stuff anymore unless its something special. No wonder classic commems don't get attention. People are chasing limited edition ASEs every year.

 

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Wow....I knew more people were online and bidding but didn't realize how bad it has gotten.

Can you tell us what coins you are seeing this surge in demand and price ? Myself, I see bullion coin asking prices ridiculous and the same coins still unsold months later so I don't know what the sellers are thinking.

I posted an article that stated that large currency bills ($500 and $1,000) had seen big price boosts in the medium-term quality from people buying presumably with stimulus checks. They're not going after pricey Morgans or Saints costing thousands of dollars.

That's where the past bubbles were, commemoratives. I bet yours sold for at least $500 at its prior preaks, maybe $1,000.

Hey, if YOU like it, that's all that matters. Enjoy your purchase !

 

For fun, I'm perusing the auctions tonight just looking at flying eagle cents in low MS range, 3 cents and some seated stuff. Three of the last coins I was checking out I looked up on NGCs price guide and they're all listed at $100 to $150 above the price guide. If you're looking at nicer stuff, this is very much the norm and more often than not. Rarely ever see make an offer as an option. Half dime I wanted was $55 over.
They're pricing in fees and whatever other costs. Most of the time I know if I was at a show with that coin in front of me it could probably be had for not tens, but hundreds less and I've done it. Ebay is an expensive place to chase graded stuff. May be the only place you can find what you're looking for though. I doubt I could find a type II 3 cent silver in a hundred mile radius around me in any grade.

I never realized the commemoratives were that hot in the past. They are cool and the early ones don't have very high mintages. I do collect commems I like but I don't attempt to chase them all.

 

Guides aren’t gospel. Many harder to find things go above guide regularly and yes when you buy online free shipping isn’t actually free. That said many things online are cheaper than they would be at a show and the reverse is true as well if a dealer doesn’t really know what they have. It works both ways

 

They went up like 70-fold from 1970 to 1989.....they even went up 6-fold from the bubble PEAK of 1980 to 1989.

Click on this and check out 1970-T0-DATE on the graph:

https://www.pcgs.com/prices/coin-index/silver-and-gold-commemorative

Note how aftere a correction in 1981-82, the index took off the rest of the decade, unlike most other coin series which were lucky to get within striking distance of the 1979-80 Gold & Silver peak.

 

I would agree, I just have seen some people on here in the past arguing that you need to chase X number percentage below the guides to get a good deal online and that's just not the case for so many things. You can write these sellers and tell them the hobbies dying but they still want their price. lol

Based on that chart GF, it looks like now's as good a time as any to be a buyer.

 

The hobby isn’t dying but yea there’s a lot that gets said on here that just isn’t accurate at all for pricing. There’s a tendency from many here to dump on things that isn’t there interest. Top quality and harder to find coins do well online. Common date common grade stuff does poorly online and is a price race to the bottom. Many of the major dealers people always rave about including people with books buy things online for inventory. It really does work both regardless of what anyone argues