edited First, I don't DO PCGS, nor do I care what they think. (I used to do PCGS, but the whoremongering left me cold.) Second, if you don't think that there's a selection bias in what gets sent in, and it does not necessarily represent the entire existing population, then I can't help you.
edited Now you don't care about pcgs? This whole thread is about grading coins at high levels. Do I really have to go over and post ngc coin populations as well? Or are you just saying pcgs and ngc the two clear market leaders are just totally irreverent and everyone should just have you come over to their house and give v.kurt.bellman grades? Maybe you can make your own slab? Sure sounds like you are talking about pcgs and ngc certified coins to me. I never said there was selection of the coins graded. I said that the coins are all graded 69 or higher. Please stop trying to change the question to make your answer right. Don't say someone is clearly wrong if you can't back that statement with facts. I'll let the rest of the board judge your statements and this thread. I've been wrong before. Is it really that hard for you to be wrong as well?
Among PCGS, NGC, and me, I do know the toughest grader is me, as are most of the collectors I hang out with, too. I chose 2007 as my benchmark for a reason - it was around then the US Mint started monkeying with the technology they use to create working dies. It is now all digitally done with "digital hubbing" and directly engraved working dies made on CNC Swiss-made machinery. There basically should never be another bad die since about '06 or '07. Even the 2009 Lincoln Cent die varieties are "digitization errors", not hubbing issues.
Ok I just had to edit my post and take out my statement about this being my last post. You can say anything you want and give all the fancy and technical reasons you think you are right. But the populations of pcgs and ngc coins do not support your claims ! Just be wrong and move on. And try to be more careful next time you say someone else is clearly wrong. Oh and I don't think anyone cares if you or any of your friends are tougher graders. You reference "both high end tpg" and now you walk away from your clearly printed post when you just won't be wrong. Just be wrong, ok.
What you SAID, dearest Vic, is, and I quote, "... there are no grades under 69 ...", did you not? False on two grounds: 1) Even your own charts showed some. 2) Just because most people are smart enough to not blow $15+ on junky examples does NOT mean the junky examples aren't out there. And worse yet, the practice of PreScreen makes for an even MORE skewed to the high end pop report situation. How many <69's were returned unslabbed on PreScreen invoices? We may never know. What I WILL admit to you is that I think both services are too generous sometimes at the 69 level. I sent in two 1981S Type 2 SBA dollars recently. I figured one for a 7 and one for an 8, and did get back 2 - PR69UC's, so there is something to your gripe.
You are really going to hang your hat on less then 10% being lower then a 69? Ok you got me only 90% + of the proofs from 1974-1979 on and the modern commemorates are only 69 or higher. I guess I am just totally wrong. Your edited response held more water then this. And yet again I said nothing about prescreened coins. I said total population of graded coins. Is it really that hard for you to be wrong once?
Two things - anyone can see this without whipping out pop reports from PCGS. The Pro edition of the Red Book has listings of average grade for both services put together. When you see an average like 69.2, it's pretty clear 70's outnumber <69, so you do make a perfectly good qualitative argument. The other is - and I mean this - (we agree completely on the circ. quality stuff BTW, even though those S quarters are amazing) - I have never personally seen any coin post-2007 numismatic (proof and individual BU commem) coin that was under a 69. I know a few might exist, but I've never actually looked at one. I'd be curious. These clad Kennedy high reliefs are quite the odd ducks - neither fully circ. quality nor the usual BU specialty stuff. And their grade profile reveals such. The other way we agree is that, except for one JFK clad set at Chicago, I can't ever remember breaking up OGP to have a modern slabbed. I have submitted singles that I got that way, more to give them a robust holder for the long run than for the grade per se. Something about a proof coin variety in a cardboard 2x2 that just makes me uneasy.
Oh, I used to be just fine with PCGS, but the bit about accepting fly-ins for ANA Chicago slabbing was the last straw in the trend of whoremongering by them. That was the bridge too far, (insert similar cliché here). I'm so done with them. It may take me a couple of years, but I'll be crossing all my PCGS coins to NGC. The Chicago deal has me THAT torqued up.
Maybe stupid thought, but I have always wondered, how can brown and reddish-brown copper coins be in Mint state. If the copper coins leave the mint, they are red, not brown or RB. The same applies to toned coins. These are definetley uncirculated, they look amazing, but they are not in 'mint' state. They are... I don't know... UNC66 for example. Historical reasons?
I remember once a submitter sent hundreds of 1976 proof silver quarters to pcgs to get at least one 70 back for his registry. how many did he get back? ZERO!
There is something rather important behind Vic's overstated post. He was obviously engaging in "shorthand" when he said what he said, and I took him literally, and I probably shouldn't have. What is important behind his post is this - MS69 or PR69UC is "no big fat hairy deal". I still submit that it is FAR EASIER to get those grades, and 70's, with the more modern post-07 vintage stuff picked out at random. That is, there are far fewer stinkers out there post-07 (or it could be 06) than during the 1970's and 1980's. Come to think of it, the 1992 re-hubbing may be another line of demarcation. But regardless, getting 69's since the mid-1970's is not all that special. Remember, it hasn't been that long since there WERE NO 70's as a matter of policy. I'd venture to guess that if whoever that was who submitted hundreds of 1776-1976 silver quarters were to do it again, he still might not get many 70's, but he may now get a few, and in deference to Vic's point, he probably wouldn't get many 68's and lower either now. Again, maybe some. The point is - grade inflation is real, but it has multiple causes, just one of which is a raise in average quality.
One way to detect a highly likely coin from a PreScreen invoice on NGC is a high three digit number after the dash on the coin number. Example: ########-345. That means at least 345 coins were submitted on one form, likely more. Who would have the patience to write or type out over 300 lines on a submission form? No one. BTW, we all know now that the proximate cause of all numismatic evil is the concept of Registry Sets, right?
I agree bk, I think those big dealers and TPG's have a thing going. Something like insider trading. You wash my hand I'll wash your's. Dave
You make a good point Tim, but I question where does the grading stop. Uncirculated was once the top grade, than MS70, now CAC. How perfect can a coin get ? Dave
Tim, someone would have to be dumber than a rock to resubmit a slabbed MS70. Kind of defeats the purpose of slabbing. I'm just saying that most MS70 coins would probably grade MS69 by another grader. Dave
V. Kurt, I really enjoy your comments. I see you are a new member. I sure hope we hear often with your thoughts. Dave
