Moderns v. Classics

Yeah, you do have a good point.

 

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Very high value numismatic coins aren't affected much, if all by pm's. In the short run, coins with slight numimatic value usually rise less than pm's, but do rise, so to the numimatist, they appear to be a better deal.

 

What percent of mint products in the last 14 years would you consider having "high numismatic value"? I bet you the majority of mint products containing pm trade at twice the pm value or less on the aftermarket within 5 years. The HIGH majority I would think. Therefor, pm increases or decreases do affect any long term buy price versus aftermarket analysis.

 

The best deals from the mint have turned out to be the coins that contain pm’s and are way over priced for the content, few order them, thus a rare coin is created. Today, you can even buy historically low mintage silver coins for very little over their pm value.

 

Not sure about all mint products, don't watch them all. The ones I've purchased have mostly doubled or tripled, with a few up 10 to 30 times issue price. And, this is despite the recent pm declines.

 

I like you SQG, and not trying to be argumentative. But, you keep saying how low mintage these coins are, and they might be in terms of other US coins, but versus the rest of the world even 5 ouncers are pretty good sized mintages. There are literally hundreds of thousands of world coins, (and overlooked US coins), that survive in WAY lower numbers than the mintages of 5 ounce pucks. You keep saying "just a little more demand and these could go through the roof", well yes, but that is one big huge IF. I have coins that is one other person starts collecting I notice prices going up, they are that rare, so I know what you are saying. Its just a huge, gigantic if that basically applies to every single thing in our capitalist society. Any coin, if demand goes up 50%, will go up dramatically since the coin marke is a very thin market.

That is where I am coming from so you understand my slight disagreement with you on modern coins. You very well could be right, but you also could very well be wrong. Predicting what will be popular in the future is not my forte, my crystal ball broke long ago.

 

Let’s not compare apples to oranges - US Coins to world coins. I’m still praying my Canadian silver dollars will do something. I bought them when I was 20 something, not understanding the coin market, the huge difference between the US Coin market and the rest of the world, where there’s a much smaller demand, divided between all the other countries. Although no one has a crystal ball, it’s not such a huge IF, if historical patterns hold, for US COINS - and, they have held over the last 20 years for coins I've bought.

 

FOR US COINS, I've heard less than a million is scarce and less the 100k is rare.

 

SQG: I absolutely agree with you about the pucks. They are a great deal especially with the subscription discount. However, be sure to unload your stash right around the time that the series ends. Once these are no longer made, there is a high likelihood demand will drop as people move on to the next big thing or popular series. BTW: 25K is high mintage for a 5 ounce coins (take the Libertads for example). TC

 

I tell most coins that rare coins are rare because no one owns them. It is a bit sarcastic, but mostly true.

 

Similar to my favorite saying, "what you really want to buy is what dealers usually do not have, high quality, problem free, rare coins". Look around a typical coin show and you will see how true this is.

 

Wonder then why my 1880's sl halves are not worth more than a few hundred then....

 

Of course, I should have said for many series, many other series require a lower mintage to be considered rare. For example, gold coins, with an historically low collector base.

 

Yeah, I'm not sure what I'll do with the 5 oz'ers. For most, I've bought one for my collection, which might not be on the market in my lifetime, but I've bought a few extras that could be in play. Sometimes series catch on and become more valuable after they end. At these mintages, most will be in collections, with a few issues on the market now & then.

Hey! Let's not compare apples to oranges, Pucks to Libertads., US to foreign.

 

Yeah, foreign and ancient coins have been such bad investments over the last decade, things like Chinese, Russian, and Roman Gold....oh wait.

 

Not sure about the ancient market, but historically, the other foreigns you mentioned have not held numismatic value. Any foreign that walks into the shop gets an offer less than melt, if any offer at all. Things may be different today, with the internet market and all, but I'm already overwhelmed just trying to keep up with the US market. If you know a different market and can make money in it, great.

 

Classic commems with a mintage of 5000 (in certain cases) can be had for reasonable prices. The freakin' Hawaiian is a killer though. Big bucks in any kind of mint state and the mintage is north of (slightly) 10,000......

 

If you are collecting solely as a collector, the modern coins have definite collectability.

If you are collecting to turn a profit, then the modern coins also are very sellable but you have to move quickly as long term profits are scarcer than a 1916-D Mercury.

Classic coins, on the other hand, have established prices which have minor fluctuations in price. As such, their long term potential holds more stability than modern coins which are subject to "massive profit" hysteria.

 

I'll agree with most of that, but there are many moderns that have performed very well long term and continue to go up. Don't know if anyone noticed, but other modern commems are spiking a bit, maybe from the HOF attention - or, at least the 2 I still need and have been watching are.

But wait, was your point that 1916-d's aren't rare? If so, true, neither are moderns that performed well lomg term.

 

Rarity is a function of demand. Does anyone believe there are more modern commemorative collectors than mercury dime colectors? If there are, you are correct that any mintages less than 200,000 is a bargain. Don't have millions of collectors filling albums of modern commems? Maybe this indicates there is significantly less demand.