Modern Commemorative Silver $1 Proofs, things I THINK I have learned, but please set me straight...

I've been a fiercely dedicated casual on and off coin collector for over 50 years. I'm not a novice, newbie, nor an expert. And I know there's always something new to learn.

About a year or two ago I started buying up a bunch of USMINT Commemorative Silver Dollars. Modern, 1983 and up. I like silver dollars, I was burnt out on Morgans, the fuzzy blue cases were cheaper than a pet, I don't know why, but I now have about 60 of them, and they're basically worth melt from what I discover, except for a few. No biggie.

At first I was amazed at the quality of the technology, and how it had improved, of the modern mirror like proof coins. I still am. Stunning. I think I have realized that most of these would grade at PR69 or PR70, if not all. True or not?

Also, from everything I read in here and elsewhere, you might as well flip a coin to determine between 69 and 70 when using mere mortal eyesight and magnification tools. Is that also true?

My question then, is, why bother? The market for these seems extremely limited, and mainly consists of one off birthday buyers and avid set collectors, the general audience for them appears to be near zilch. Never found in circulation, come to think of it, I have never even touched one directly, strictly through a capsule, it's a most sterile experience of any in US coin collecting.

What I plan to do is just sell off my common dupes for melt or above in the capsules only, then get what I can for the cases and boxes and COAs maybe on eBay, then use that money to find something more real and exciting to my dull existence.

Is there any reason to submit let's say four or five of the more collectible issues to TPG NGC and or PCGS in hopes or expectations of getting back one PR70 to hang onto for my collection, then do whatever with the rest. Financially it seems to be a wash or a loss on most dates/varieties...

Also, I laughed when I read that often the difference between 69 and 70 is post mint damage when the proof is removed from the capsule and put in a flip for grading submission. Then, another chuckle to see a $1 charge for the TPG to leave this task to the professional. Then, the rule of three in comedy, if you want that capsule back, you gotta pay for it also, PLUS postage.

Gimmee a roll of junk silver anyday to dig through, I guess. I'm old fashioned.

Thanks,

 

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Excellent question, I have some of these too. Interested in seeing what our gurus have to say.

 

In some cases, the box and COA sell for much more than graded examples. I don't follow commemoratives very much, so I couldn't say which issues that would apply to though.

 

USMINT issued COAs to me are worthless, as while pretty, they are just paper and in no way associated with the coin itself. The silly aftermarket for them is perfect example. I mean, you could buy one and glue it to a cat.

 

The more recent ones yes, the earlier ones not so much. Anything below a 69 is the kiss of death though so submitters tell them not to bother holdering anything below a 69 making it look like every one is a 69 or better.

You are right though that most of them you might as well just sell off as the 70 price barely covers the grading fee on them at this point.

No, comments like that are more of a reflection of bias against the grade or moderns.

That depends on the TPG, PCGS doesn't charge for removing it and returns the OGP for free. NGC charges to get the OGP back.

 

I couldn't agree more, but for selling purposes, they are nice to have. It shocks me to see the difference in prices realized for coins with and without the box and COA. I've seen countless proof sets without the COA sell for about half of the sets with complete OGP.

 

"Watch me pull this Krugerrand out of my hat..."

 

I like the OGP/COA. Comes in handy especially recently with the ASE Congratulation Sets. Common ASE Proof and very expensive packaging for certain discriminating collectors.

It also depends a lot on where you sell it. If you sell it back to a dealer they may only quote spot irregardless of year, etc. If you sell it in a collectors forum you may get a nice premium. If you chat about it in a collectors, buyers, etc forum you'll get all over the place valuations.

 

It does seem to be very distinctly based on the line drawn for modern mint issued coins though, no? As example, Anything 1964 and prior, 70's are still going to be rare coming back?

 

Yes, only in the past decade or so have ultra modern coins been sent in large quantities for grading. This also forced the mint to improve their quality as customers were demanding better quality as opposed to just what ever they sent out. The 70 percentage seems more inflated than it is though since a lot of bulk submitter will just have 70 as the minimum grade and not have the 69s holdered and obviously smaller submitters wont send anything they don't think could be one.

Very rare. The only ones that exist that I can think of off the top of my head are a handful of proof Lincolns/Jeffersons/Roosevelts/Washingtons and 1960 is the earliest date for any of those from PCGS. I believe those are actually the oldest 70s they have currently graded

 

My experience is that for proofs to get a 70, the cameo frost has to be perfect....a little bit of interruption in the frost and it should be a 69. PCGS is a bit tighter with giving the 70 grade to modern commems.

 

There's really no use sending any in unless you were absolutely 100% sure you'd get a 70. But even then it would probably make more sense just to buy a 70 and be done with it. I recently sold a large lot of these and even asking like .46 cents or something over spot each so I could deal with an even number. Still not single person even inquired on them. When I put them on Ebay though they sold very fast and at a better price than I was offering them elsewhere. Honestly, I think many people don't even know these coins are silver, which doesn't help with generating demand. You should be able to get a few dollars over spot on Ebay though even after fee's.

 

I have been told when new releases come out, the distributors send thousands to the grading services, the graders do 1000 a day...so that 70 is a product of about 8 seconds of scrutiny....worth the massive premium?

 

When you play the MS70 game, you're basically betting that you can get enough coins slabbed at 70 to make a worthwhile return on your investment in the raw coins, grading fees, etc.

You're betting that your knowledge of grading, knowing the TPGs, understanding the market, and knowing where to sell quickly at those market prices, will give you an advantage and allow you make money.

Sort of like counting cards in Black Jack or being a day trader in Stocks, you're trying to use your skills and knowledge to gain an advantage. A few people that put in the continuous effort to be good at it can win. Those that don't put 100% effort into learning and staying on top of the game may occasionally get lucky, but usually lose in the long run.

So, if you're confident in yourself and objectively think you can make some money, then go ahead and bet on yourself. If you don't want to invest in the time and effort needed to be good at it, then don't play.

BTW: I don't want anyone to think that I'm implying anything about @SilverWilliesCoinsdotcom skills. Just laying out my thoughts. If you play, I hope you make a killing.

 

For sure, and products where it would be worth it for the average person don't come along to often with the modern mint products now. ASE with a few exceptions it is just impossible to compete against the lower prices the big boys get and really what the 70s sell for now just isn't worth the risk, proofs they basically have a lock on too. There are a few commemoratives worth a shot, but with the poor designs and subject matter that doesn't get people excited even they struggle to sell them and the baseball ones were really the last one collectors could get in the game on.

 

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Oh my looks like I've got my wrist slapped

 

So, our recent MS70 compulsion is kind of "instant gratification"?