Modern 1 oz AGE Proof or slabbed St Gaudens ?

Isn't lead worth more than that even.

 

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Sure, if you're into making sinkers for fishing......

 

Have my eye on a nice looking 1924 pcgs MS63.. whats a good price for this?

 

The spread is high when there's a high demand for gold in hand. Should gold drop by about $300 per ounce, but should the segment of society who is in love with the stuff decide that it's going to go back up, you'll see the spread increase. Conversely if gold is rising but demand for gold in hand is rising even faster, the spread will be high. This is what happened about three years ago as prices were climbing. I sold my Saint at that time for about a 50% premium over melt (and paid for a vacation in Europe with the proceeds). That spread has since narrowed, of course.

In any event, the answer to your question is that it doesn't matter. Once you have the gold in hand, you simply play the spreads and periodically pocket the difference, essentially as a dividend. I do agree (with my pocketbook, in fact) that timing your initial buy is a valid concern, but if you know you're going to buy or you already have gold in hand, you can play the spreads forever.