Lincolncent's Official Hurricane Contest Thread

Do I get anything if I get the system correct?

I think she'll get further West than the models, but I still think East of the Bahamas and even east of Bermuda. Could very well clip the DR as a TS though.

 

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How's a 5% discount at the Cleveland IGA whenever you come through? lol
So far you're the only one to guess a completely non-US landfall. I still wouldn't be the least surprised to see it make it into the gulf. I know its already moving away but I just don't think that trough is gonna be that stout.

 

1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA.

Looks like no landfall. Forming too far north.
However, the models blow the system in the Carribbean into a Tropical Depression by the weekend.

 

000
WTNT32 KNHC 060837
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172010
500 AM AST WED OCT 06 2010

...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 67.0W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVENTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.0
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY LATE TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41043 SUGGEST THAT THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


No landfall expected.

 

Congrats lincolncent, you now have 500 posts!

 

Haha! I do! I didn't even notice lol. Thanks! Hopefully I've said something helpful in the first 500. I know I've learned an awful lot.

 

BTW, that "SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN" is now called Otto.

 

OTTO, Now that's a storm we can see coming and going! Palindrome.

 

I was only off by a few days.

 

+1 And it going to come and go too. Headed quickly out ot sea.

That's not bad at all. Better than me. I was expecting it to develop last week (before last Saturday which, I believe, was your original prediction).

In other news, the 8am TWO
1. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT MIDWAY
BETWEEN HONDURAS AND JAMAICA. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...
IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

*hint, hint* If it develops at all it will pretty much have to make landfall somewhere. I wouldn't count on that southward movement for long but you never know....

Top right: Otto
Left Central: 10% watch area.

 

since i cant make much of the ocean weather sites and im an optimist, id say nothing is going to happen till next spring/summer (unless you count the solar flare that is supposed to send us back to the dark ages) the price of silver by then will be well below 20. lets say below 17. dont know where and when other than where will be the hat, and when will be whenever the draw is. sorry if im boring but i dont think anything is going to happen right now.

 

Alright guys. I'd place bets on this being our storm. From here on out the only thing I will post is further rule changes (as needed, hopefully none) and NHC discussions.
One important rule update: IF YOU DO NOT GUESS YOU WILL NOT BE ENTERED INTO THE HAT DRAWING IN CASE OF THE UTTER FAILURE OF THIS SYSTEM!!!!!
Also as a reminder: NO GUESSES WILL BE COUNTED WITHIN 24 HOURS OF EXPECTED LANDFALL. I will post what expected landfall is. You may not have very long so don't risk it! Also, I will post when guesses will no longer be taken as well.
One final reminder: GUESS SHOULD BE MADE AS TO FINAL LANDFALL. Not the first one. See rules for explanation.
Best of luck to all.
2PM TWO
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED 150 MILES EAST OF SAN
ANDRES ISLAND HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTARD TO NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

 

Date: October 11th, 2010
Category: 3
Location: Havana, Cuba
Price of Silver: $23.85
​

 

October 12th, 2010
category 1
Georgetown
$23.37

 

8PM TWO
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 160 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE NICARAGUA-HONDURAS BORDER HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER DEFINED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

And an interesting coin trivia fact!: E PLURIBUS UNUM (one out of many) first appeared on the 1795 Liberty Cap-Heraldic Eagle gold half eagle.

 

galveston texas
oct 20
24.15
cat 3

 

South Florida (Miami region)
October 21
Cat. 2
$24.75

 

1. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST NEAR THE BORDER OF
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS
FORMED. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. IF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMS...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WOULD BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
TD#18 here we come.

 

Tropical Storm Paula.
Forecast track: *#@$ HUGE cone of uncertainty. I'm at work so I'll post the track when I get home.
Fore now: www.nhc.noaa.gov

 

The uncertainty is not as bad as the expected path. It is supposed to move NW, N NE, E SE, then S. For those who are spacially challenged, that constitutes a circle.