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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Sholom, post: 776143, member: 17753&quot;]<b>Important lesson</b></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>Right . . . and what do all three have in common?</p><p><br /></p><p>And, imho, I think this is an important point:</p><p><br /></p><p>All three sold out unexpectedly.&nbsp; Institutions and dealers were caught by surprise, lowering the supply in the coin market, so to speak.&nbsp; Dealers and collectors were caught by surprise, and panicked, increasing the demand.</p><p><br /></p><p>I distinctly remember the big debate here over whether folks should purchase LP1 rolls.&nbsp; There were two camps: one said, &quot;there will always be lots of these, it&#039;s a waste of time&quot; and the other camp was saying, &quot;yeah, but I really want one.&quot;</p><p><br /></p><p>Me, being a neophyte, watched the debate, unsure of what to do.&nbsp; During this debate, while I was trying to figure out which made more sense, the items sold out (perhaps within 10 days, if I remember correctly), the price went sky high, and folks like me learned a lesson of &quot;he who hesitates (on a limited release) is lost.&quot;</p><p><br /></p><p>So, a whole bunch of us purchased LP2&#039;s, and, guess what: the mint sold them non-stop for months, and us speculators are left holding all these LP2 rolls that we don&#039;t want, and for which there is not much of a demand.&nbsp; The prices on LP2 mint roll boxes will be low for a loooong time to come.</p><p><br /></p><p>Same thing happened with Harrison rolls.&nbsp; Sold out unexpectedly, price went sky high; during the next release, a bunch of us here purchased tons, and ended up trying to return them.</p><p><br /></p><p>Same with DC Quarter rolls.&nbsp; I have a whole bunch of quarter rolls sets for the releases _following_ the DC one (Puerto Rico, etc.) . . . they are useless to me.&nbsp; I can sell them on eBay, and, after commissions, take a loss . . . </p><p><br /></p><p>So -- here&#039;s the key:</p><p><br /></p><p>It&#039;s not _just_ low mintage, specialness, first year of release, etc etc. . . although, to be sure, those are important</p><p><br /></p><p>But another important factor is whether or not the players in the coin market (sellers and buyers) are *prepared* for the level of availability.&nbsp; When we&#039;re prepared, we stock up, and a whole bunch are available on the market.&nbsp; When we&#039;re not prepared, most of them go into circulation, and then we can&#039;t find them.</p><p><br /></p><p>I *think* this may also explain why, e.g., the 1931-S cent is so low in price compared to the 1914-D, and why the 1950-D nickel is so reasonable in price compared to its relative low mintage to other nickels.</p><p><br /></p><p>Thoughts, anyone?[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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