Lincoln Presidency Final Mintages Out

lincoln presidency mintage will be known after next mint report. which is few days from now. it might be stay the same. it might add some. i think it will be the lowest.

will it be increase its value?. i doubt it.

pres harrison dollar, washington dc quarter and lincoln child birth are the winners for their respective series. that's it.

thing to consider key date:
1. lowest mintage or low mintage.
2. first coin or year of a series.
3. supply and demand by majority collectors.
4. institutional buyers, big coins dealers, rich people can also have a power to support a coin and become key date.

since all three series already have a key date. that's it. and only thing you can get a good stuff are the 2009 roosevelt and jefferson nickel. but those prices were up already. for me. just look forward toward 2010.

 

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High Elaine, thanks for weighing in on this thread and please update it when the final numbers are out for the Presidency.

This post is one of the reasons I like coin collecting, the lively debate/speculation over what could happen in the future. I understand your thoughts on the Lincoln Birthplace, which was the key to the 2009 series, yet with the presidency probably coming in at around half the mintage, current prices on eBay are higher for it than the Birthplace. Will Presidency prices hold and/or remain higher than Birthplace, out doing its status as the first of the series, we’ll see as the new year unfolds. As for winners of the year 2009 (and 2005, 2006, 2007 & 2008) for regular circulating coins, I have to pick the satin finish coins included in mint sets, since they are a distinct variety, similar to matte proofs, and are all low mintage (lower than proofs) for modern circulating coin series. Check out eBay activity and prices for satins, they’re hot and few sellers of past years issue, which says possibly they’re settling into collections/hoards and won’t be available at these low prices much longer.

As for the DC quarter being the winner, what about the lowest mintage Mariana? It may well be that the DC will always be more in demand than the Mariana, but some of the current DC demand is due to the possibility of finding the double dies in rolls/bags. Since the Mariana just concluded and is the lowest of the series, I think we need to give it more time before the final verdict is rendered.

 

Important lesson

Right . . . and what do all three have in common?

And, imho, I think this is an important point:

All three sold out unexpectedly. Institutions and dealers were caught by surprise, lowering the supply in the coin market, so to speak. Dealers and collectors were caught by surprise, and panicked, increasing the demand.

I distinctly remember the big debate here over whether folks should purchase LP1 rolls. There were two camps: one said, "there will always be lots of these, it's a waste of time" and the other camp was saying, "yeah, but I really want one."

Me, being a neophyte, watched the debate, unsure of what to do. During this debate, while I was trying to figure out which made more sense, the items sold out (perhaps within 10 days, if I remember correctly), the price went sky high, and folks like me learned a lesson of "he who hesitates (on a limited release) is lost."

So, a whole bunch of us purchased LP2's, and, guess what: the mint sold them non-stop for months, and us speculators are left holding all these LP2 rolls that we don't want, and for which there is not much of a demand. The prices on LP2 mint roll boxes will be low for a loooong time to come.

Same thing happened with Harrison rolls. Sold out unexpectedly, price went sky high; during the next release, a bunch of us here purchased tons, and ended up trying to return them.

Same with DC Quarter rolls. I have a whole bunch of quarter rolls sets for the releases _following_ the DC one (Puerto Rico, etc.) . . . they are useless to me. I can sell them on eBay, and, after commissions, take a loss . . .

So -- here's the key:

It's not _just_ low mintage, specialness, first year of release, etc etc. . . although, to be sure, those are important

But another important factor is whether or not the players in the coin market (sellers and buyers) are *prepared* for the level of availability. When we're prepared, we stock up, and a whole bunch are available on the market. When we're not prepared, most of them go into circulation, and then we can't find them.

I *think* this may also explain why, e.g., the 1931-S cent is so low in price compared to the 1914-D, and why the 1950-D nickel is so reasonable in price compared to its relative low mintage to other nickels.

Thoughts, anyone?

 

I guess I'm still "old school" - I buy the coin and the packaging means very little. If I want a roll of something, I may have a preferred wrapper, but am not willing to pay a substantial premium for it cause bottom line is (at least historically) eventually the majority of coins are broken out of the rolls. Oh well, you guys collect your mint wrappers if it does it for you and I'll buy the bank rolls and cherry pick the high grades.

I'd say you're dead on about the 31-s, 14-d & 50-d - if collectors hoard a low mintage coin, it's not going to be as scarce later on and will command a lower premium than say a not so rare coin that was not save in mint state. Guess the Lincoln bicentennial business strikes have little chance of carrying significant premiums, since based on availability in commerce, it appears they've all been put away.