It seems I was 20min late... but my title is more...ermmm...striking Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
WOW! Gradeflation at work and proved in such a way that you cannot argue. I should like to point out something that hit me after reading this part of Mr. Salzberg's the article: "Interestingly, I just read an article in Coin World over the weekend that describes a 1997 Lincoln Cent in PCGS MS 68 that sold for a strong price of $763.75. According to Coin World: "PCGS had graded 17 in this grade with none finer when the coin was offered last autumn, and the population has subsequently exploded, with the PCGS Population Report recording 24 as of December 2016." Modern coins, the pocket change of today, don't make as good case as vintage pieces such as the 12-S. The reason is simple. At this time, virtually no one is stupid enough to pay $$ to send in a 199X Lincoln cent for grading. I know, I know, the search for perfection rules. That's why stamps with a retail value of used postage can bring $$$ when graded 98! Same with coins BUT... As soon as some collector had a 199X dated coin graded and sold for hundreds of dollars, any astute collector will try to match it and reap the reward. I assure you all that the population of MS-68 Red modern Lincoln cents will explode as these coins are out there waiting to be slabbed.
What? Mr. Salzberg made a point that PCGS is getting loose. He backed it up with examples. I cannot argue with his article EXCEPT to point out that the example of a 1998 cent is NOT VALID IN MY OPINION because these coins were not sent in UNTIL one brought stupid money. Capeesh?
There probably aren't as many as people think floating around after circulation and as you said people just not thinking twice about grading them, but your point is certainly valid that modern top pops should rise over time as that market strengthens more people will look for them. A few years ago slabbed Ikes were somewhat rare on eBay and things like a 73 P MS 65 brought good money so people searched and the population gained and the price came down. Also agree that is hardly an example of getting lose. The one thing he is completely ignoring is that overtime more and more people have gotten their coins slabbed. Newer collectors don't know what the preslabbing days were and as life has it the collectors from those days do pass on unfortunately which has changed the demograpihics and overall acceptance of slabbing. Auctions used to run raw coins now almost everything gets sent in, so of course populations were going to rise as collections hit the market and get graded for the first time. The days of selling a top notch album or top notch coins are essentially gone. There is more going on with the populations than he wants people to believe. That also doesn't account for crackouts where people tried for a higher grade and got the same grade, or coins crossed back and forth looking for that + or extra point. I equate this a lot to the PM price charts. You can cherry pick numbers and present them in a way to make your point look good, but at the end of the day you are just presenting it in a way that best serves your own financial interests.
You make good points but please consider this...The coins that were "cherrypicked" using charts to make his point are very uncommon in the very high grades that are adding to the total pop. numbers. Loose grading standards over time also added to the pop and we all know that even if NGC has tried harder to hold to consistent standards (and may have succeeded better than PCGS - Mark's point) NGC is just as guilty as PCGS for the changes over time as more coins are graded higher. That is a fact. Anyone, who says standards have not changed since the late 1980's is ignorant. Mr. Salzberg is not ignorant. I have been told by numerous professionals including Mark that standards have indeed changed a little due to the fact that the TPGS are recognizing/learning more about the nuances of grading. Perhaps it's one reason that in some series especially, coins that were formerly graded AU are now commonly found in Mint State slabs.
Okay so counter point, why are you convinced everyone of them is a unqiue coin? No he's not, but he doesn't make his money and secure his job by being honest about any other service.
I guess you believe Salzberg's statement is a lie. I think the NGC lawyers looked over his statement very carefully and can diffuse any attempt by PCGS to win a libel suit! Furthermore, as you should know..."All's fare in love and war." The grading business is a war. PCGS and NGC fight it out daily at shows, in publications, and on chat boards. While misinformation/opinion is all over the chat boards, I have never heard/read a lie from either one of them. Perhaps you can educate all of us with one or two examples so we can be as informed as you. Incidentally, I've been told by the owner of a "minor" TPGS that he is content stay out of the fight and to "fly" under the radar by providing excellent service and grades without entering into a confrontation with the big two.
Would you like to know how many of those 1997 MS68RD cents there were in Oct. of 2003 ? A grand total of 2. Now would ya like to know how many there were in Apr. of 2006 ? 10 - five times as many as there were just 18 months earlier. And just in case ya want to know, the 67s jumped from 39 to 117 in the same time period. Seems to me that that's when the population really exploded ! Of course it also makes it obvious that 2004 was when grading standards changed, long before Salzberg is talking about - 5 years ago. And he's talking about an increase of what, 35-40% in 13-15 months. I'm talking about an increase of 500% in 18 months ! Now just for the heck of it would you like to know how many of those '97 cents NGC had graded as MS68RD at the end of 2003 ? A grand total of 3. And today, well there's 26 of them. And let's throw the 67s in too, at the end of 2003 NGC had graded 6 - today they have graded today they have graded 86 ! NGC has had the same explosion in populations, and it started at the exactly the same time that it did at PCGS - 2004. And those huge increases in pop numbers took place across the board in 2004, with classic coins too, not just modern coins. And it happened at NGC and PCGS both, not just one of them. My point is this, this loosening of TPG grading standards has been going on a lot longer than most are willing to acknowledge. It started in 2004, not 2011 or 2012.
I agree and will raise you at least four years. Loosening of the grading standards began several years after the two major TPGS's were established. I have heard that major submitters gradually forced each of the majors to loosen their standards by switching all their submissions first to one service (then complaining about tight grades) and back to the other (until complaining about tight grades again and switching). AFAIK, that may just be a story that cannot be proved.
I didn't say it was a lie, its the truth in a late night TV show kind of way and in the same way that Gold is up since 2003 kind of way. It's cherry picked information with cherry picked timelines that ignore all of the other factors and reasons.
But what I said isn't "cherrypicked". The explosion of the grade populations applies to all coins across the board, not just 1 or 2 examples. And when I say across the board I mean classics and moderns both.
Were in agreement on that ! Both of his recent articles on this subject are nothing but a case of the pot calling the kettle black.
