All of the lots sold well over estimates/ most way over catalogue values. Same with CNG/ Stacks/ Heritage events. This proves 100 percent that coins/ prices are soaring way beyond inflation. Again....we are not talking about modern proof/ sets/ issues/ but rare/ high quality coinage. The US market is flat, even suffered downward pressures, due that US coinage was vastly overpriced ten years ago, and have come down. However, Ancients/ Medieval/ Classic coins have been on fire since 1960s.
It just means that the estimates were conservative. This is a common marketing tactic by auction houses to attract consignments, saying "we realize 2x estimates", but it doesn't necessarily indicate a trend in prices. Additionally, catalog values are often refreshed once every several years and don't take into account the quality of each coin. Even in US coinage where coins are relatively consistent, the Red Book prices are only barely connected with the market. Looking at the prices realized by comparable coins over a period of time is a much more reliable way of establishing value than a single integer in the guide book.
I agree in a certain degree, Panzerman is mistaken about looking at estimates for comparing prices. The best way will be to compare the exact same coin with previous auction records. I'm into late 18th century thalers, and I lost on every lot I was bidding on this auction. I found this coin in previous record from yesterday auction I wanted: sixbid.com/browse.html?auction=5541&category=179702&lot=4633548 This coin realized 8000€ yesterday. This exact coin was sold in 2017 for 2,700€ by Heidelberger: sixbid.com/browse.html?auction=3473&category=73633&lot=2894971 I also saw the 1786 regensburg thaler sell for 4,400€ yesterday, the same coin sold for 1900$ last year at Heritage. I don't know you can really compare like this, maybe Künker just had the right clientelle that day. I do believe US coins are going to crash, they deserve it. They are bad in every way. I feel sorry for everyone holding ugly US coins.
I would not call US coins ulgy, but they where way overpriced dating back to 1990s. The famed 1857-S double eagle is the poster child of a vastly overpriced coin. The most common Double Eagle in MS quality. I agree with AJ/ frederik that previous auction records are a true test of coin price trends. I personally research this fact a lot. I recently won a coin vis Sincona Auction. I won the coin for 4400 Sfrs. When i received my prize, I noticed they had placed auction tags from 3 previous auctions. My coin sold for 24 RM in 1936 Berlin auction/ 200 Sfr in 1965/ then 900 Sfr in 1995. So In US$ terms, $6/1936 $180/1965 $760/1995 and $4600 in 2018. Back too the Kunker auction, that magnificent Bern 10 Dukaten went for 220K..... John
US coins are ugly af, I feel sorry for everyone buying these. They are like modern art bubble. What coin did you buy for 4400Sf from Sincona?
I got this.... AV Fiorino di camera ND Roma Mint Pope Alessandro VI (Rodrigo Borgia) 1494-1502 Papal States
It has been known in the Foreign coin circle for the last few decades that Kunker and CNG have the Deep Pocket collectors bidding in their auctions. I wonder what return one would get if a current auction purchase were re posted with them in the next couple auctions. Purchases from these two should wait at least 5+ years to maximize any potential gain. On the flip side, sometimes you have to pay "MOON" money for the pride of ownership. I only buy with funds that are not necessary for the next 2-4 years. I would rather have a beautiful coin and get to show it off than to wish I had the coin. Me personally I hate the hunt/chase for a coin. I want it now or better yet, yesterday, so that I can enjoy looking at it and having the satisfaction of owning it. Life is too short for wishing.
I am the same way, I would rather work really hard, and be able to afford those special coins then just dream about them. Yes, Kunker/ CNG have a reputation for really nice material. But many other auctions also have better coins taken by rich collectors. It seems the really high quality gems are always in top demand, no matter which auction they appear in. But again, CNG/ Kunker material that is graded EF/ Vorzg. may appear in a future auction as a slabbed MS-64/65 and was a better deal after all. I won a Kunker lot (AV Cavalier d'or/ Louis de Male/ Flanders that was graded Gutes Vorzg.(EF+) It looked so nice, I had it TPG graded, and it was a MS-66! But Kunker price was half of what I would have had to pay in a US auction. Also, I never sell any of my coins, so market trends do not concern me, I collect for the pleasure it offers.
I cant compete in Europe lately as I get severely outbid, I do find top end world coins cheaper on Heritage/Stacks compared to Kunker.
Again you guys are mistaken here about Künker aswell. I actually find more times than oppisite that people buy from Künker to resell in US. I can show many examples of this. For instance if you type in "Ernst horn" on HA.com site and go trough all the coins that have been previous sold at Künker, you'll see the HA numbers crush them. The most expensive one, a drachmai from 1833, hammer at 1800€ at Kunker, few months later it get resold for 7000$ hammer price in HA. Same story with the top coins from Horn collection at HA. Bremen 1859 grote, sell 420€ at Künker, resell for 2800$ at HA, few months later. Basicly all the 86 coins from the collection, sold for higher prices than what Künker was able to get. CNG most times than not, undersell items. I think you are very mistaken tibor. The only auction firm that I can confirm with deep pocket collectors would be MDC Monaco and Chaponnière & Firmenich SA They put incredible high start prices and they sell.
That's a really nice coin Panzerman, I have really not bought much from Sincona, I do regret it thou. In 2017 they sold some amazing Virgil Brand, Frankfurt pieces, wish I had a time machine. I'm a collector of coins with provenance, could you please tell me what coins you have from the Ernst Otto Horn collection and Virgil M. Brand? The german coins. I will not ask to buy it, but just curious.
I'm also very surprised by your statement, in the "taler universe" collection you bought the 1604 rudolf taler for hammer price of 8250$ at Heritage, just a few months earlier that coin was sold at Künker for hammer price of 2,600€. Thats pretty huge difference for me. Künker even gave it a Kabinettstück designation, so you cannot say they misgraded it.
I guess its lot specific. Here are a few that I was tracking that fell way out of range (these are hammer, before adding the rest) https://www.kuenker.de/de/auktionen/stueck/212574 https://www.kuenker.de/de/auktionen/stueck/210499 https://www.kuenker.de/de/auktionen/stueck/209902
My observations in the every year World Money Fair Künker Auction is that prices go always up https://www.kuenker.de/en/auktionen/stuecke/316 https://moneditis.com/2019/01/30/kunker-en-la-wmf-2019/
The one thing that always is a common denominator. High quality coins/ banknotes sell for top $. Case in point, Naumann Auction has a common Otacila Severa AR Denarius/ Hippo reverse. Their coin is MS/ highest bid 950 EUROS!!!!!! I am probably as much to blame for that, since I will pay more for quality.
