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<p>[QUOTE="ziggy29, post: 12849, member: 1113"]Well, to me the modern MS-68/69 craze, paying hundreds of dollars for premium examples of exceedingly common coins, is an example of the Greater Fool Theory. Nevertheless, these prices are set by the market and what people will pay. Dealers wouldn't be selling these items for (say) $200 even as MS-64 and MS-65 examples could be found for a couple of bucks if people weren't willing to outbid each other for them.</p><p><br /></p><p>Still, I believe in what Dave Bowers frequently writes in his weekly <i>Coin World</i> columns -- you can buy fifty MS-64 coins for the price of one MS-67 in many series, and unless you're made of money and determined to have "condition census" coins, the former will provide much more enjoyment than the latter.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>Well, true. I'll bet a common-date MS-65 Morgan is orders of magnitude more common than many coins that sell for 1/10 of its price. Same would be true of Lincoln cents from 1909-1933, particularly in grades above VF. </p><p><br /></p><p>Price, though, can induce demand. When market forces at least temporarily cause a market price to rise, some people latch on to that, chase the "hot" items, creating more demand and causing even more of a spike. In othger words, <i>the mere fact that a coin's value is rising causes more demand than would be there had the value not risen,</i> and thus we have the beginnings of a true market mania.</p><p><br /></p><p>Now I'm not going to say we've reached the "mania" stage, but with certain series, ultra-high graded coins (particularly moderns) and key dates in popular series, it's getting close. I'm looking into finally getting that XF/AU 1877 cent that's been the last hole in a collection I've been building for nearly 30 years, and I'm depressed I didn't fill it last year. I could have; I had the money available them and I'd probably be left with $500 more of it. And now the dilemma is, do I put down $2,000+ now on a coin whose value (and demand) has risen sharply in recent months, or do I chance having it go higher, hoping the market may create a mid-1980s downturn where I can start buying the coins I want on the cheap? I lean toward the former, knowing I plan to hold it for a long time, but the state of the current market does make one wonder. Then again, I sold all my tech stocks in 1999, too. <img src="styles/default/xenforo/clear.png" class="mceSmilieSprite mceSmilie8" alt=":D" unselectable="on" unselectable="on" />[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="ziggy29, post: 12849, member: 1113"]Well, to me the modern MS-68/69 craze, paying hundreds of dollars for premium examples of exceedingly common coins, is an example of the Greater Fool Theory. Nevertheless, these prices are set by the market and what people will pay. Dealers wouldn't be selling these items for (say) $200 even as MS-64 and MS-65 examples could be found for a couple of bucks if people weren't willing to outbid each other for them. Still, I believe in what Dave Bowers frequently writes in his weekly [i]Coin World[/i] columns -- you can buy fifty MS-64 coins for the price of one MS-67 in many series, and unless you're made of money and determined to have "condition census" coins, the former will provide much more enjoyment than the latter. Well, true. I'll bet a common-date MS-65 Morgan is orders of magnitude more common than many coins that sell for 1/10 of its price. Same would be true of Lincoln cents from 1909-1933, particularly in grades above VF. Price, though, can induce demand. When market forces at least temporarily cause a market price to rise, some people latch on to that, chase the "hot" items, creating more demand and causing even more of a spike. In othger words, [i]the mere fact that a coin's value is rising causes more demand than would be there had the value not risen,[/i] and thus we have the beginnings of a true market mania. Now I'm not going to say we've reached the "mania" stage, but with certain series, ultra-high graded coins (particularly moderns) and key dates in popular series, it's getting close. I'm looking into finally getting that XF/AU 1877 cent that's been the last hole in a collection I've been building for nearly 30 years, and I'm depressed I didn't fill it last year. I could have; I had the money available them and I'd probably be left with $500 more of it. And now the dilemma is, do I put down $2,000+ now on a coin whose value (and demand) has risen sharply in recent months, or do I chance having it go higher, hoping the market may create a mid-1980s downturn where I can start buying the coins I want on the cheap? I lean toward the former, knowing I plan to hold it for a long time, but the state of the current market does make one wonder. Then again, I sold all my tech stocks in 1999, too. :D[/QUOTE]
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