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<p>[QUOTE="ziggy29, post: 12794, member: 1113"]There are several factors. Mintage is one, but it also depends on survivability, the degree to which the coin circulated (creating "condition rarities") and the popularity of the particular series.</p><p><br /></p><p>The 1909-S VDB and 1931-S cent both have mintages below that of the 1914-D, but the latter is generally more valuable as you get into the higher grades. As a first-year coin, a lot of '09-S VDB cents were saved early on, and even during the Depression the 1931-S cent was quickly recognized as scarce and often saved. They both have high rates of survival in higher grades. The 1914-D, on the other hand, was used heavily and it took quite a few years before many people realized its scarcity and started setting them aside. (The '31-S, in particular, is rarely seen in grades below VF.) By the time '14-D was widely recognized as a scarce date, the damage was mostly done and most were "average circulated." In the Indian cent world, the same is true of 1877 versus 1909-S. The latter was saved more and circulated much less, making the '77 the "key" despite having nearly triple the mintage of the 1909-S Indian.</p><p><br /></p><p>And, of course, there's the popularity of a series. There are coins many times rarer than any of the cents mentioned above, and many times rarer than even some of the scarcer Morgan dollars -- but are much, much cheaper. </p><p><br /></p><p>Then there's just market mania. Whatever is "hot" is what people chase after, either because (a) they want in on the price appreciation to turn a profit or (b) they want to buy before the price goes up much more. Sometimes these go up just because they've *been* going up (see also the tech stock mania of 1999 and the rare coin market of the early 1980s). This is the "hype" side of the equation.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="ziggy29, post: 12794, member: 1113"]There are several factors. Mintage is one, but it also depends on survivability, the degree to which the coin circulated (creating "condition rarities") and the popularity of the particular series. The 1909-S VDB and 1931-S cent both have mintages below that of the 1914-D, but the latter is generally more valuable as you get into the higher grades. As a first-year coin, a lot of '09-S VDB cents were saved early on, and even during the Depression the 1931-S cent was quickly recognized as scarce and often saved. They both have high rates of survival in higher grades. The 1914-D, on the other hand, was used heavily and it took quite a few years before many people realized its scarcity and started setting them aside. (The '31-S, in particular, is rarely seen in grades below VF.) By the time '14-D was widely recognized as a scarce date, the damage was mostly done and most were "average circulated." In the Indian cent world, the same is true of 1877 versus 1909-S. The latter was saved more and circulated much less, making the '77 the "key" despite having nearly triple the mintage of the 1909-S Indian. And, of course, there's the popularity of a series. There are coins many times rarer than any of the cents mentioned above, and many times rarer than even some of the scarcer Morgan dollars -- but are much, much cheaper. Then there's just market mania. Whatever is "hot" is what people chase after, either because (a) they want in on the price appreciation to turn a profit or (b) they want to buy before the price goes up much more. Sometimes these go up just because they've *been* going up (see also the tech stock mania of 1999 and the rare coin market of the early 1980s). This is the "hype" side of the equation.[/QUOTE]
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