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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;illini420, post: 696354, member: 19423&quot;]I&#039;ve done my share of eBay gambling as well, and I&#039;ve posted a thread about it awhile back.&nbsp; But in my &quot;gambling&quot; I&#039;ve limited myself to buying coins that were certified, but were being sold with horrible photos.&nbsp; At least that way, I was minimizing the downside risk in that I knew the coins were authentic and I knew I&#039;d always be able to sell the coin at a certain bottom line price based solely on the grade on the holder, regardless of what the coin really looked like.&nbsp; I made a couple great deals doing that, and a couple of bad ones... but one was so ugly looking that no one would buy it and I had to send it in to the certification company under their grade guarantee.&nbsp; </p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Even with my downside risk substantially mitigated, making these eBay gambles was just too crazy for me so I rarely even consider it anymore.&nbsp; I just can&#039;t imagine taking a gamble on an uncertified gold coin where the downside risk could be as low as zero though, as I just don&#039;t know gold well enough to be able to spot the fakes from a single photo.&nbsp; The upside gain potential would have to be huge for me to take this sort of risk and I just don&#039;t see a huge upside gain potential in this case.&nbsp; I think at best the coin could certify as an MS61 or MS62 example and could sell in the $1500 or so range.&nbsp; Even then, after $50-$75 in certification fees and whatever selling costs you would have, the profit potential is maybe 10%-15% maximum in my opinion.&nbsp; That&#039;s definitely not enough for me to risk it all.&nbsp; Of course, I wish BNB the best with this coin and hope that it ends up being a big winner for him.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>That said, I see nothing about BNB&#039;s coin here that makes me think fake or cleaned.&nbsp; I just don&#039;t think it&#039;s possible to tell with 100% certainty from the photos provided.&nbsp; I also disagree with those that say any coin like this would be slabbed already if it was real or didn&#039;t have problems.&nbsp; The certifcation companies grade hundreds of problem free coins every day and not all of them were cracked out of slabs and resubmitted.&nbsp; And with common date common grade gold coins, the certification costs probably outweigh any gain in value from certification since they are priced based on the gold value and not on the numismatic grade.&nbsp; Sure, there is value in certificaiton to guarantee a coin is genuine, but that is less needed if you&#039;re buying from a trusted dealer and I don&#039;t know enough about the seller of BNB&#039;s coin to make a judgment in that regard.&nbsp; At any coin show there are at least a few dealers with a decent pile of raw $20s and not all of them have problems.&nbsp; </p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>I&#039;ve bought several raw Indian and Lincoln cents at shows and had them certified, some of them worth several hundred dollars each, but I feel that I know those series well enough to make those kind of purchases on raw examples, especially when I can view them in hand at a show.&nbsp; <img src="styles/default/xenforo/clear.png" class="mceSmilieSprite mceSmilie1" alt=":)" unselectable="on" unselectable="on" /></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Keep us posted BNB, and make sure to post some pics and your thoughts once you get the coin in hand.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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