Just realized this about 1938-D nickels

Discussion in 'US Coins Forum' started by Troodon, Jan 25, 2025.

  1. Troodon

    Troodon Coin Collector

    A little realization I had when the collection that was just given to me had a 1938 buffalo nickel in it. I originally incorrectly labeled this as just 1938, but then looked at it more closely and realized it was 1938-D. I then looked it up in Redbook and realized all 1938 buffalo nickels were minted in Denver. Then I realized something when I noted that 1938-D Jefferson nickels were a key date, and lower mintages than both 1938 and 1938-S. The reason they minted the least Jefferson nickels in 1938, was because they were the only mint still minting buffalo nickels in that year before they made the transition to the new design.

    I'm definitely not the first person to figure this out, but it's satisfying to figure out a reason things are the way they are instead of just assuming it's kind of random or there is no real explanation for it. There's probably reasons each mint minted a certain number in a given year, but after a while it kind of feels like random statistics, without a clear reason why a given year and mintmark is more common or rare than others. But for this one at least it's clear that Denver for whatever reason delayed switchover to the new nickel design; maybe they got the dies late, I don't know, there's probably some reason. (Love to hear it if anybody knows specifically why.)

    But there you go, people who didn't already know this or hadn't figured it out.

    P.S. Kind of an incomplete explanation, but at least there was one... Looked it up and apparently there were delays in production in getting the new Jefferson nickel out, due to them refining and adjusting the design. But nickels were still needed, so more buffalo nickels were produced. Why only Denver, and why Philadelphia and San Francisco didn't mint any to meet the demand, don't know. But I can kind of make a semi-educated guess... Philadelphia kind of makes sense, since that's probably where they were testing the new design out before they released anything. San Francisco often lagged behind the other mints anyway, were probably told not to mint any nickels until they got the new design (or just decided this on their own. San Francisco always seemed to be the last to do anything, and their mintages were almost always less than the other two main mints). Leaving Denver to have to step in.

    Resulted in 1938-D buffaloes being the last of the buffalo nickels but also 1938-D Jeffersons being a key date.
     
    Last edited: Jan 25, 2025
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  3. Pickin and Grinin

    Pickin and Grinin Well-Known Member

    There was no delay, Denver began minting Jeffersons after they finished striking over 7 million Buffalos in the same year. I must also include that Denver Mint was the only mint to produce Buffalos that year.
     
  4. Troodon

    Troodon Coin Collector

    Well semantics I guess, if you do one thing before doing another thing, doing the first thing essentially delayed the second thing. I guess it's not a "delay" in the sense that they weren't sitting around waiting to do the second thing, but the first thing still had to be done first. They weren't minting two different designs at once.

    But nickels are needed, Denver doesn't have a new design yet and has an order to mint nickels. (Just a guess on my part I'll admit, but I have seen claims that they didn't have the new design in time to get production up for the number of nickels they needed to produce. They get the new design at some point, but past the point they needed to start production on nickels.) Buffalo nickels are what they have. So... they mint the Jefferson nickels after those are done. But since they already made 7 million of them don't need to make as many Jeffersons. (They still ended up minting about 5 million of those but it's less than the 19 million Philadelphia minted). Makes sense.

    Correction though 1938-S is still a little rare than 1938-D; San Francisco minted about 4 million that year. (Not really "rare" but rarer than the other two.)

    Ignoring the designs Denver minted about 12 million nickels that year, not much rarer than the 19 million Philadelphia minted, but that mintage is over two designs. Making 1938-D a common Buffalo but a key date Jefferson.

    Philadelphia and San Francisco were not minting buffalo nickels in 1938; they only minted the new Jeffersons. Denver still did mint buffalo nickels, has to be some reason for that. My semi-educated guess, nickels are still needed, someone has to mint them, they don't have the new design yet. Anyone knows or has a better guess would love to hear it. Human being do things for reasons; it's not just random, so there has to be some reason.

    I don't know, I just like trying to make sense of things. It does at least explain why a 1938-D Jefferson is relatively rare; they were still minting Buffaloes that year. I was just attempting to make sense of why that was done. If anyone has a better theory or even better a confirmed explanation, would love to hear it.
     
    Last edited: Jan 25, 2025
  5. KBBPLL

    KBBPLL Well-Known Member

    Production of the Jefferson nickel didn't begin until October 3, 1938. Regarding the 1938-D Buffalo, NGC says "The nation slipped back into recession during 1937-38 on its way to full recovery a few years later. This terminated the demand for new nickels from the Philadelphia and San Francisco Mints, and only Denver struck Buffalo Nickels in this last year of issue. These, too, were evidently not needed at the time, as collectors beseeched the Treasury to obtain specimens, while banks continued to dispense fresh rolls of 1936- and 1937- dated nickels. When the 1938 D Buffalo Nickels did finally begin to be distributed, thousands of rolls were immediately put away by speculators, as it was by then known that this coin was the last of its line."

    I think your explanation is mostly in those two factors - nobody needed nickels except Denver, and the new design wasn't ready until very late in the year. Keep in mind also that the first master hub was poor, so in 1939 there are the "reverse of 1938" and "reverse of 1940." That's another possible factor but I'm not sure how that would explain mintage for 1938-D. Maybe 5.4 million is just all they could produce in less than three months. Fewer 1938-S Jeffersons were struck - 4.1 million. Also maybe all they could produce in under three months. It depends on what the demands for other coinage were too - you'd have to look at monthly coinage records for all the denominations and see. The mints were often told "stop making this, make more of that."
     
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  6. Michael K

    Michael K Well-Known Member

    They didn't make 1938 or 1938-S Buffalo nickels. Only 1938-D.
    Although there is a rare 1938 D on S.
     
  7. Pickin and Grinin

    Pickin and Grinin Well-Known Member

    Coin facts has each of them labeled 38D, 38D/S And 38D/D.
    There are 5 different D/S omm's. Incl the Fs-511 one a D/D/D/S
     
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  8. Troodon

    Troodon Coin Collector

    Do know that the things that to this day still generate collector interest is coins that are either the last of the old, or first of the new, so in 1938 people were probably saving both the last Buffaloes and the first Jeffersons.

    So basically, demand was down for nickels, so only Denver needed to mint any. But it wasn't until October that they switched to the new Jefferson design. By then they had already minted most of the nickels needed so didn't make as many Jeffersons before the year ended. OK, that makes sense.

    (I still need a 1938-D Jefferson but do already have a 1938-D Buffalo lol.)
     
  9. Pickin and Grinin

    Pickin and Grinin Well-Known Member

    You got pics? I almost had all the varieties for 38' buffs. I still have many.
     
  10. Michael K

    Michael K Well-Known Member

    Yes I forgot about the D over D. I just meant there were no Philly or SF nickels.
     
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