Is This Guy Nuts?!?! 2010-D Nickel, PCGS MS-68 Full Steps for $4,000?!?!

I think this has more to do with the rarity of a person being skilled enough to grade high end coins then the coins themselves, just look at the fact that this same guy found two high grade nickels.

 

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I think it was me Lehigh. I never said an obvious difference but I thought I could guess what the grading services would say, even though its not ANA standards.

I will admit I just don't get why such a tiny grade difference matters, so I guess I just lump this in with error collecting as a subject I will just pass on. Btw Doug, yes there have always been and always will be condition rarity, just not to the extent, (NEARLY to this extent) in the past. I think that is what most of us find shocking, the price differences between tiny points of difference.

To each his own, and I am sure these make others happy, so great for them. If we all collected the same things it would be boring.

 

I agree I guess, since I have not priced US coins much since being here. Mine are still in a SD box. Its a good point, but the OP posted a modern nickel that I bet if it was graded MS 63 would be worth....5 cents. A better graded coin has always been worth more, but not worth 100 times more for a single digit grade. Should the Watters-Childs PF 68 1804 silver dollar be worth 100 times more than the King of Siam PF 67 1804? I think that was the outrage of the OP, the seeming mind blowing multiple of a single digit grade.

P.S. I think I will just stop wondering why these prices are the way they are. I know I could post two ancients and one is worth at least 30x more than the other, and most would not know why, so this is their game and they can play it the way they wish. It just makes me want to search some old holdings for some MS 68 mercuries to sell.

 

I wouldn't pay a huge difference even if I were convinced the grade was correct. I like value in my purchases and for me, there simply is no value in paying huge premiums for small differences.

Now the really "scary" thing is the risk involved in paying a huge premium for a small difference in grade. I don't know, were you around in the mid 1980's for the ms65 Morgan scams, where people lost their life savings on ms65 Morgans? Well, before the prices plummeted on them, the grade fell apart, meaning most of those ms65's became ms64's over night. The accusations were that the dealers didn't want to buy them back as ms65's, as they knew the pyramid scheme that was taking place. Well, try to find a dealer that will buy a high priced, high grade modern back from you at close to what you paid.

 

About 1989 actually, but good points.

 

Was it 1989? Thanks, things get a little cloudy back then. The whole thing was so big and such a scandle that weren't some consumer protection laws passed as a result of the whole thing?

 

Lol, yeah I was in basic training at the time so remember the date. Those years tended to be a little fuzzy for me as well. I think us "old timers" have just seen this bus come a go a few too many times.

 

Modern collectors don't want to hear from ancient collectors. We know that rarity, absolute or condition, means absolutely nothing. We can show a coin that is the only specimen known of the type; we can show a coin that is the best known of the type but still only grades fine but neither of these coins sell for for any more than similar coins that exist by the hundreds or thousands. What makes a coin worth more than melt/face is that there are more people willing to pay for it than there are specimens for sale. Collectors assume that enough people collect by date and mintmark to pay extra for one date over another. If type sets were again to become the rage, the value of key dates would fall. There was a time that a collection was ranked highly based on the number of different coins it contained. Today we have a lot of people willing to pay for minutia of grade. A century from now we have no idea which our great grandkids will prefer for their cash: my $10 ancient 'only known'; my 'best known' that cost $35; or will it be that five cent nickel in a yellowed plastic slab with MS-68 on the front? Who cares? We'll all be dead so meanwhile have fun an spend your $4k where it will bring you the most smiles.

 

Yep! Funny thing, that 1989 date. I watched a special on PBS the other night that discussed investments (stocks, PM's, etc) that talked about "bubbles" in the markets and how it takes consumers/investors about 20 years to forget about "bubbles" (collapses) in markets and the whole thing repeats again. Looks like some coins and PM's are on the bus.

 

It more likely has to do with someone getting lucky at the TPG.

 

Thats some luck LD .

 

I was a teenager in the 80's and my coin collection consisted of circulated Mercury Dimes. What I do know is that the crash of 1989 had nothing to do with conditional rarities. The coin boom of the late 80's was a perfect storm starting with the TPG's, a sluggish national economy after the stock market crash of 1987, and the entrance of Wall Street money into the coin market via brokerage houses such as Merril Lynch. In fact, I would be willing to bet that most conditional rarities faired much better than their common counterparts during the crash. Furthermore, I don't know what you mean by grade fell apart. The dealers didn't want to buy them back because all of the dealers and collectors knew the prices were artificially inflated. The people who got taken were the investors who listened to a guy like "Bud Fox" from a brokerage house who cold called them with an incredible investment opportunity. The TPG's were in their infancy at that time and if confidence in the TPG's had been severely affected, they would have crashed along with the market.

I should make it clear. I don't agree that it is wise to pay $4K for the coin in the OP. There are certainly a few other MS68 FS 2010-D Jefferson Nickels out there and the set price is clearly an attempt to exploit registry fever. Consider that I paid less than $3K for my 1943-P Doubled Eye Jefferson Nickel NGC MS67 5FS which has a population of (2/0) which is a conditional rarity in it's own right.



But if you don't recognize that the coin pictured above deserves to be worth more money than the one pictured below, then I don't know what to say to you. The coin below is a PCGS MS65 Doubled Eye 1943-P Jefferson. Now I know what you are going to say, that is two grade differences. However, PCGS is almost a full grade more conservative in their grading of Jefferson Nickels so essentially, these two coins are one grade apart. To me, the differences in quality are very obvious and the first coin is worth much more than the second. What say you?



So while the $4K price tag of the OP coin is a little over the top, I would value the coin well over $1K . The problem with these modern coins is that the collector base is not the same as the classic coins. Look at me for example. I am a Jefferson Nickel aficionado but my collection stops at 1964. Another problem is that there are no historical auction prices because they coins were just minted so pricing becomes extremely difficult. I don't like the coin at that price but I just think your reasoning is flawed. I agree with Doug that conditional rarities have and always will drive significant price premiums and I agree that they should.

 

I agree with your last post entirely, Paul. The above coin I myself would pay that kind of money for.
Guy

 

Depends, what is the price of the ms65?

 

Yeah this guy's nuts!!!

FREE SHIPPING???

 

A perfect storm, huh, is that what they told you? Well, you're correct about the basement based telemarketers selling "rare" ms65 Morgans at inflated prices. Yet, when the market was saturated (the pyramid was built or the bubble was at the bursting point), the first signs of the crash were the dealers wouldn't admit they sold them at inflated prices, they claimed the grading standards had tightened, thus your 65's were now 64's. Kinda sounds like that has everything to do with condition rarity. As I remember this hit the market so hard, it caused declines in the entire coin market.

As for how it affected the TPG'ers, I'd have to research that. When did pcgs start the green label with the conservatively graded coins? It appears the TPG'ers are more concerned with short term profit than long term survival - look at how they're "bending over" these days for the latest telemarketers on cable. So, since they're controlled by the big dealers, when they need a scapegoat, oh darn, the grading standards tightened again. Maybe after surviving the 1980's they think they're invincible. Or maybe their profits are going offshore, so when the lawsuits start, they’ll go “belly up” and their guarantees will be worthless - AKA, a Camen Island retirement plan.

 

Like $500-$600

 

Well, these days. I'm not a Jeff collector, so neither price sounds good to me. Although I see a difference in the two coins, if I were a Jeff collector, I'd probably choose the 65.

The truth of the matter is, I'm not buying any high priced, high grade, high mintage moderns. If I spend a lot on a coin, it's going to be a classic or modern error or variety with a low mintage. As for other moderns, I'm cherrypicking the high grades from inexpensive rolls and mint & silver proof sets.

 

ah the plot thickens now with the loosening standards yesterdays 66 is todays 68 what happens then eh granpda?