Is the market for Indian Head cents going up or down?

I was researching the upcoming summer action, by Scotsman, and noticed they have listed a rather large amount in IHC in this auction, 62 so far. When comparing that number to the past 7 auctions dating back to 2017 the average is about 16 per event.

The last 7 auctions they held had listings of 14, 10, 21, 31, 19, 8, 12 of IHC. The 62 in this upcoming auction seems way above the past trend.

So my question is;
Is the market for IHC weak and sellers are moving out this series OR
is the market for IHC strong and sellers are trying to capitalize in the current atmosphere?

 

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My guess is that probably sellers have been sitting on them because COVID has curtailed many auctions.
Now that things are opening up they are more than ready to get the IHCs out for buyers.

 

I'll address only the general question about when to sell.

I have found that some people in the business dwell on making a profit on each individual coin. In a rising market, this works since a poor buy will eventually rise to market. But these are usually pawn shops and small dealers.

Those who rely on income from sales are always facing a tension between two valid business concepts that are sometimes at odds. "Buy Low - Sell High" and "Turnover Produces Income."

Once again, in a rising market, there is a cushion for a poor buying decision as the market rises.

But in a falling market, sitting on poor buys produces ever increasing dead weight inventory leading to poor sales and income.

A sustainable business model is to turn the dead weight into cash (even at a loss), make better buying decisions, and keep the inventory full of inventory that will sell. Thus maximizing revenue (and hopefully net income.)

Now I cannot speak for the market for Indian Cents, but the Early Date Large Cents seem to have fallen about 20% in the last decade judging on sales prices of coins sold more than once at different times.

It has reverse the long standing trend of ever higher prices for this series, particularly the middle and higher grades.

I suspect the number of coins available has more to do with the need for revenue than supply and demand (market) price trends.

 

Could it be as simple as a collection hit the market, and the heirs want to sell them now to get it over with? In the ancient auction world we EXPECT variability like this. In fact, we think its kind of weird if small amounts of lots of coins appear in an auction.

The reason it happens with ancients is two fold. One, hoards are found, and most of the time they are very similar coins. If they buried 82 silver coins in modern day Syria around 220 AD they are most likely Antioch tets. So, the auction will have lots of these one time, and almost none the next. The second reason is collections. Someone passes away and his/her heirs want to sell. most people are not like me and collect certain areas. Well, the auction will have lots from that area, and not as much from other areas.

This is what makes collecting ancients addicting. You always need to pay attention, or else coins you have been looking for will get sold without you knowing. I looked for 12 years for a silver coin with Christopher on it, (from Constantine VII). In those 12 years I now know at least 4 sold when I wasn't paying attention. Makes it both addicting and maddening.

 

When you discover the reason the seller(s) listed the coins your question will have been answered. All we can do is speculate.

 

I've been active in bidding on IHC recently and find the bids very strong. It seems to me that hammer prices have been trending upwards. Even though there seems to be more coins available the demand has been high.

 

The market for Indian cents is strong. However, that's only the case for properly graded and coins of high quality. When I say high quality I don't mean high grade. I talking about overall condition of a coin. A well struck cent with nice surfaces even in extra fine won't have a problem finding a buyer and usually will command a strong price. This the same for a mint state coin. I wouldn't think twice about paying a premium for an mint state 64 Indian cent that was fully struck with nice surfaces as apposed to buying a mint state 66 Indian that is poorly struck. Nice Indian cents will always have a buyer. So in general the market is strong for Indian cents.

 

My best and im sure it will hold on.

 

It's about time the IHC's are reaching out. The 1877, 1909-S are the cream of the crop and hard to come by at a decent price and condition.

 

I have been trying to complete a series of IHCs and have been disappointed by the exceptionally high cost of decent 1869s I have considered hundreds of them for sale for more than two years now. Most have sold for $800 or more, and I am not talking strictly about certified specimens. So, add the 1869 to your Cream of the Crop.

 

I think it's the latter. I have seen strong pricing for IHCs in better grades and better coins within the grade and now I am seeing strong pricing for even lesser coins. I'll give you an example. I've been looking for about 6 months now for the "right" 1891, a common date, in MS-64 or 65, preferably RB and an A or B coin. They seem to have been thin until the last couple of weeks and those that were offered in auction that met my grade criteria went for significant increases above the price guides. I have lost out on auctions where the A or B coin in 64RB, PCGS and NGC, went for well over $300, a significant premium over retail price guides. The April Greysheet says a 64RB should go for $225 and May says the same. The PCGS Retail price guide says $275. The CAC Retail Price Guide says a CAC coin in 64RB has a value of $325. I am seeing A and B non-CAC coins in 64RB going for these numbers if the coin warrants it. That tells me there are some discriminating collectors out there who are willing to pay a premium price for a non-CAC coin.

Last Sunday's Great Collections auction had five 1891's up on the block. All were PCGS slabs and none were CAC. Only one of them seemed to me to be a B coin. All the others were C's or D's as near as I could tell from the auction photos. They hammered with 12.5% BP at:

$274.50 for the B coin
$258.76
$274.50
$241.88
$254.25

The fact that none of these coins went for around Greysheet is telling, IMO. So, I think the market for IHCs is strong, even for lesser coins for the grade. If you're looking for a key or semi-key date or issue you are also going to have to pay strong prices if you are discriminating for better coins for the grade.

I'm still looking for that perfect 1877 in AU-55 that is not a EF-40 in AU-55 drag and doesn't cost me my children's entire inheritance. Good luck with that! I found the perfect coin in a recent coin show but it had an outrageous price. That dealer knew the market and was not going to give an inch.

 

I HAVE SEEN 1877 IH IN BELOW AG SO BAD GO FOR OVER $500. YOU GETS ME IS I HAD ONE ABOUT 65 YEARS AGO. IN WHAT NOW WOULD BE AU59, AAA S**T WENT TO ?

 

LA_Geezer, If you are speaking of the 1869/69 you are absolutely right. I failed to mention it, sorry. I have 3 complete sets, it took me about 12 years. Thanks for the correction and good luck.

 

I'm sorry to say that we were likely bidding against each other. I am still waiting to fill that date as I haven't gone over my limit when bidding. I'm hoping that the recent bidding frenzy will settle down soon.

 

If you're referring to the GC auction last Sunday for the 1891s, then you weren't bidding against me since I chose to not bid on any of them.

And if we ever do wind up bidding against each other and I lose, then more power to you - you deserved to win.

What I seem to be seeing, and it's across most 18th and 19th century US issues, is the better coins for the grade getting very strong sale prices, as they should. But riding those coat tails are lesser coins with the sellers and buyers not knowing or knowing-but-not-caring that the lesser coins are not worthy of those premiums. More reason than ever to know the coins and be discriminating.

 

Not really a correction, just an observation. I have taken a break from the search, and may never resume it. I too have 3 sets, but none of them have the '09S or the '77, and only one has a '69/69. My spreadsheet says I paid $40.50 for it, probably a VG or VG+ that I bought ~ 10 years ago.

 

I pulled the trigger on this coin in Tuesday’s Heritage auction. At $288 I feel like I overpayed, but the coin seems more attractive than others at that grade level, and also it has CAC approval. In any case I still paid less than I would have for a 64.

 

I think your 63 is more handsome than the 64s in the GC auction.

 

I'm immediately drawn to the die crack 10:30 - 12:30.

 

@LA_Geezer, I have PM'd you.