Featured Is the Coin Market Softening??!!

Back to Crown Wreath/ concerning price drop (Seljuks of Rum AV Dinar/ Three Brothers) ALL of the gold coinage from the Seljuks used to be impossible to get/ all were rated RRR. However according to Steve Album, a hoard of mint state AV Dinars were found in Turkey. That hoard has been estimated at 500-5000 AV Dinars, hence with all these onmarket prices are dropping. The so called 3 Brothers Dinar used to go for 2K+ last year, now down too 500-700US. The US stuff has been declining now for past 12 years, these were overpriced from the start. The really big drop will be that overpriced 1857-S Double Eagle, now that 30K have been salvagedfrom SS Central America, the rest (approx. 170K coins are now in process of being recovered from wreck site) World coins are still way underpriced, when one considers their true rarity. Ancients are also undervalued, and can only go up in price.

 

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John I mirror your most of your views. Seljuq dinars (Three brothers) has definitely softened and your explanation for this drop is logical. Prices in the last 12 months have gone down from about $1,200-1,300 including BP to about $950-1,100 incl. BP.

I stopped looking at US coins a long time ago because I feel they are hugely overpriced for what they offer. I'm not so sure about ancients because they lack any mintage records and a new find of hidden hoards can destroy prices, however, with regards to modern World coins I definitely feel there is a long way to go. Some very scarce coins used to be only a few hundred US$ about 15-20 years ago and are several thousands now.

I still feel that many European buyers are wary of US auctions and that is good for those of us who buy European coins. But in the last couple of months I've seen the US market waning......now I'm not sure if this is a seasonal thing with impending tax liabilities weighing heavily on investors/collectors or it's a more sustained trend. Either way, I'm not looking to sell any of my better coins anytime soon and hope I will have an opportunity to pick the right time for that

 

Actually I have bid in European auctions, both historically and in the past 6 months. Still have't seen the effect you mentioned. Without what coins you're referring to your claims are almost impossible to verify.

If you're only bidding on the finest known example of a coin then it might be possible to have brisk competition even in a declinging market. For example lets say that US Barber quarters (1892-1916) are declining across the board in all grades including up to ms-67. You and Zohar may each want the finest known Barber quarter, say in ms-70. Even tho virtually all Barber quarters are cheaper a fight over the finest known 1915-s quarter could reach astronomical heights. However this is perhaps not indicative of market conditions in general: even in Europe.

Any real examples?

 

High quality coins ALWAYS sell for a big premium. This applies to ALL coins that were struck before 1950. Example/ CNG 108/ Byzantine AV Hyperper Michael VIII/ estimate 500/ highest bid so far 1800! Coin is graded supberb EF=MS-65 for CNG grade. Still crude EF examples sell for 150-300 most auction. Coins with eye appeal+ high grades always sell many times estimate.
John

 

That's not limited to just coins before 1950

 

Well I was looking specifically for the California fifties, not the fractionals, and don't recall a single one.

On high quality coins selling for a big premium, it's not always true: at least in the past 4-5 years. I recall some high quality Brazilian stuff selling cheaply.