Is numismatics going the way of philately?

There's really no way to stop counterfeiting if somebody really wants to. And some will do it no matter what the consequences are. The only thing that can be done to limit counterfeiting is to make the penalty life in prison. Want to get more extreme than that?... how bout death by firing squad (or other means).

Aside from that, the only other thing that will limit counterfeiting is when the value of the genuine item being counterfeited becomes so low that it's not actually worth counterfeiting anymore. This is actually the only thing I can think of that can stop counterfeiting entirely. Though we don't want this of course.

 

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Counterfeiting at times brings value of the genuine items down .Death by firing squad like the good old days

 

I wonder is there a way to test the age of a coin, say 60 years or older without damaging the coin? Wouldn't this easier since you would know right away that a counterfeit had been struck recently? There should be some way to test the metals the layers of dead skin, dust or whatever is left on the coin. My my thinking could just stupid? Yeah I know still no way to test the modern stuff.

 

20 in a row 70's? No but I rarely ever hear of a COLLECTOR submitting 20 of the same item. The dealer on the other hand submits hundreds or even thousands of the same item and law of averages he gets hundreds of 70's.

As we know maybe, but that doesn't mean the hobby will die. For me coins are a hobby and I don't NEED a 70 coin. And I think a lot of other HOBBYISTS probably feel the same way. Prices on 70's get silly and sky high, a 69 or 68 works just fine. I think a lot of the people chasing the 70's and paying the high prices are speculators not hobbyists. If the death of the hobby as we know it comes to past that will probably mean that the speculators all got burned.

I believe previous ANA shows at Portland have also been poorly attended as well, (But I will admit not that bad)

 

I last one I went to last August, located in Dalton, GA probably had an attendance over a thousand I know. I'm going to another show there next month. I will let you know what I see if you are interested?

 

Something tells me coins and nanotechnology will be closely intertwined in the future.

 

If speculators all got burned the bump would be small because they are going after the modern issue in the 70s that they could control so the normal collector has been shut out of for so long no real difference to them or the hobby

Collectors are sending 100s of the modern issue trying to cash in on the big price difference I have seen and purchased many clad coins for $20.00 and less in 69
less then cost some got the 70s and others trying to get some of the money they lost most told me not playing that game no more

 

While I'm concerned with the improvement in counterfeit coins and holders, I don't think you can compare coin collecting with stamp collecting. I don't think the two have the same allure at all.

Yes, there are too many US Mint offerings at the moment, but they are mostly made of PM vs. ink/paper.

Will coin collecting still be as popular in 50 years as it is today? I'm not sure, but afterall, it is legal tender, so I'm sure there will still be value.

 

I can agree with you that I am very concerned myself with the counterfeits. They are getting better and better everyday. Will our hobby be popular in 50 years? I think so. I can remember when Ike dollars were a novelty and they used to give them out to the kids. Now they're highly collectible and valuable. Not only the silver ones. Coin collecting, stamp collecting, and banknote collecting have similarities. Of course they have different appeals, they appeal to different tastes.

 

John, I LOVE that point about Ike's. It raises for me an intellectual question (what doesn't?). Ike's were UNIVERSALLY considered darned near "uncollectable" for years and years, until one day, suddenly they were okay, then interesting, then valuable. What causes that to happen? Will it happen to other "uncollectable" series? When? How? Who does it? Is it all marketing followed by sheeplike following? Are we all lemmings diving off cliffs? Who is the Great Kahuna who decreed that it was cool to "like Ike"? These questions matter to me, because knowing how they happen allows one to see the next one as it is happening, before it's too late to get in.

THIS is why I collect very high condition "intended for circulation" moderns. So at least my son can catch the next Ike wave with a head start. This much I know for sure - if it's meant for collectors, it'll never be worth squat. If it's NOT hot for collectors right out of the chute, it'll be massive some day, as long as its condition is the best you can find.

 

The lemming phenomena is clearly overblown. These little munchkins are truly smarter than colloquial thinking would have us believe.

 

Okay, but are Numismatists smarter than I think, too? Somehow, I doubt it. Too much certainty, too much bluster, too much things will always be X, too much macho, not enough think.

 

Numismatists are almost always smarter than collectors.......

 

I have enjoyed reading this conversation.

Of course I disagree with everything written.

Seems to me if you like coins and believe in supply and demand you would actively discourage any more people coming into the hobby, unless it was someone that you cared enough about to share things you enjoy with them.

Non collectors who talk to me about coins, sometimes think that it is a way to make money, I do everything I can to disabuse them of that notion, that is the last thing this hobby needs is a bunch of people chasing the illusory get rich quick rabbit around the track.

The worst thing is those who sell rare coins as investments to people who could care less for the intrinsic coin and care everything for the investment, unless the investors can all be steered to slabbed 70 moderns ( I do not have much interest in them)

 

Will this bring it to the brink? Will he jump for the ring, or turn and start the same. Make him king and all will follow the bumpy road till the next ring.

 

The problem is in all the hobbies, the newspapers and the TV only talk about the million dollar collections and the millions that people are making off of it, nothing else.

 

I think the Ike's came back because of the price of the regular silver dollars and the pre 1964 were going higher. Collectors were looking for a new place, I think they found it in the Ike's to an extent. New collectors love them. They were cheap, large coins and you can complete the collection. The popularity started to peak. With the hordes that dealers have, they were able to supply. Who knows maybe we'll see the SBA do the same.

I agree with you. If you're going to collect coins for circulation, condition is the key.

 

I recall when I completed my Ike set (for its time - nobody had heard of Type 3 reverses then). Some "serious collectors" literally laughed at me. All I had done was put together the absolute nicest of each one I could find, based 100% on eye appeal and nothing else. None of the "brownies" has so much as a hint of haze. I still have it. None are slabbed. All are in Eagle brand dark grey hard plastic 2x2's with the Mylar windows and the whole set is in an Eagle 36 box. I last dug it out maybe four years ago. I wonder if the set is still as hilarious as it once was.

 

Really???