Is numismatics going the way of philately?

Here's what gets me. On here (CoinTalk) I read from dealer after dealer about how "nothing" the modern coin field is. But then two of the last three Harry Forman Dealers of the Year were primarily modern dealers (Patrick Heller and Lee Minshull); since the 2014 ANA Rosemont show, not one, but at least two and maybe three modern-only sticker services have sprung up; and at aforementioned ANA show thousands of umm, err, people(?) slept outside on wet concrete and let comfy air-conditioned hotel rooms lie empty to get an unlimited release modern gold coin (and at least one ANA ex-president was among them).

Somebody is reading different tea leaves from other somebodies. It strikes me that confident bluster on what shall be is more hope than knowledge.

 

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Its the frenzy before the fall.

 

If I were forced to place a wager, I'd have to pick your viewpoint. But I don't see where such certainty is coming from. I have a description for this phenomenon - thinkin' witcho' wannahappen. I see it a lot. People claim to be analyzing, when all they're really doing is wishing.

I do get the wishing part, though. If you truly believe moderns are a flash in the pan, and classic coins are the long term value, then watching that much disposable income disappear into the modern field, with a deeply held belief in negative returns on their part, must REALLY tick you off. All that business going to no one's benefit? Must be hard to stomach. Here you are, supporting the hobby's historic base with time and treasure? Wow, how do you NOT have blood pressure issues?

I can't get off the agnostic "we'll see" Schneid on this one.

 

Eventually people will go to sell there 69 and 70 graded eagles, lose money on them, and swear off the hobby. (maybe)

 

I must honestly report a desire to reach my hand through my flat screen and slap someone on the home shopping channels' coin shows.

 

For most of us, predicting what will be hot in the future is an act in futility. With stocks we can review 10Q and 10K reports, but even then it's looking backwards, and there is probably less information for coin trends. As most investment disclaimers state, " past performance is not an indicator of future results"..So...unless you're a dealer, collect what you like.

 

Isn't it even worse than that? Doesn't past performance almost present a strong case to go a different way? My pop always did that all his life, and it always served him well. He had the disclipline to buy what had recently gotten beaten down.

Here's what's weird: I have ZERO difficulty doing that in coins, but in financial assets, it's somehow harder to do for me. I try, but I sometimes wait too long to get in.

 

You're perfectly right on this. The price between MS-70 or PR-70 to 69 is outrageous. When is the last time you heard that a collector got 20 of them graded in a row at MS-70? But you hear that the dealers get hundreds graded MS-70. The dealers have a monopoly on the new issues. They're the first to order, first to receive. I would go as far as to say that the mint gives them priority because they're buying thousands compared to the collectors who buy a few. Just take a look at the MS-69 on many modern issues. If it's a clad coin, I have seen them go for $20 slabbed. That's under cost.

As for resubmissions, I have never heard of anyone getting a downgrade. But I know many people crack them and send them back 10-20 times looking for a higher grade until they get it most of the time.

 

To each his own.

 

With all the mumbo jumbo talk and the badness of trying to be a philosopher with the broken crystal ball and backseat analysis, reminds me of the day after quarterbacking. Coin collecting will be around until the end of the world. Like it or not. At least I think so

 

Did you get a 70?

 

Not sure I understand the question, John. Did I get a 70 on what? The answer must be "no", because while I DO submit "moderns" for slabbing, I have never yet submitted even one coin that has ever gotten a 70 for anyone with any consistency. I don't submit "intended for collectors" U.S. Mint capsuled coins. I do submit exquisite "intended for circulation" coins and "modern, but not hugely modern" proof varieties taken from sets, e.g. 1950-70 cameos and 1979 or 1981 Type 2's.

The "holy grail" for me is PF69UC on the proofs and MS68's on the intended for circulation pieces, and yes, I get them quite often. I also bought an original BU roll of 1970-S cents for 3 bucks and got three small date MS66RD's out of one roll.

I like my ASEs and commems in OGP rather than slabs.

What has gotten your knickers in a knot, John? Why are you so nasty?

 

I was curious if you slabbed the coin you got. And if you did, what grade was it. I don't see myself sleeping out on the street to get the coin. Especially if I thought that coin collecting would become obsolete. But to each his own.

 

I never bought the JFK Goldie, nor will I. Too much original markup for a "mint to demand" piece, especially since so far it's not part of any realistic "set". (Stay tuned for the 2016 gold tribute pieces coming.) I did work queue security and management for the ANA for three days last August for those who did line up. I'm an ANA National Volunteer. Just because I love coins, that doesn't mean I'm not aware the hobby AS WE HAVE COME TO KNOW IT is in the process of a slow-motion swirly. It's doomed. I just hope to be able to enjoy it for the few years I have left, and it hangs on for my son. I'm far less sure of that.

I'm an analyst for a living. Sorry if analyzing things bugs you. It's kinda what pays for my coins, y'know? I'm good at it, and they pay me well for it.

Yogi Berra said it best - "Predictions are hard, especially when they involve the future." And - "It's amazing what you can observe just by watching."

 

In my business we use analyst every day to see were best place to make our money work but you can over analyzing and you should know. That were common sense and experience come in and that is my part and as your self I'm good at that to make my money with that said

The JFK Goldie is a nice looking coin if you collect JFK half dollar could look nice the only gold one for now

Your far less sure our hobbies will survive but it will

 

The people I work for don't do business. They don't sell anything. They make their money by taking it from other people, at gunpoint if necessary. State government. They plan based on economic and demographic trends, and in an economy where larger and larger shares of the population are just scraping by, as now and for the foreseeable future, low priority applications of funds like coin collecting not only suffer, they wither away.

I dispute that there is any such thing as common sense. If it's common, it makes no sense, and if it makes sense, it is completely uncommon. In other words, the average guy.... is a moron. I didn't always believe that, but the more I see, the surer I am about that.

 

Wow John you are the ultimate ra-ra cheerleader for coin collecting. If I didn't know any better I would guess you are a dealer selling slabbed 70 JFK's.

We're both on the same side in wanting the hobby to survive and stay strong, but I think you are actually doing a disservice to drown out the issues within the hobby by saying everything will be fine and dandy.

You did acknowledge one flaw In pricing between one grade to the next, but then keep falling back on everything will be as good as always.

I think the best thing we can do to improve the odds of this hobby doing well is to create awareness of the issues - not drown them out with unbridled optimism.

Also, you seem so certain that the hobby will be strong in the future when no one knows what the future holds. At least us "doomsdayers" admit we could be wrong. I think we are being more sensible.

 

Sorry you work for such people and don't look at you self as a moron.With out business like ours no government would function and the average guy is not a moron
And there is common sense you just need to know how to use it problem some don't have any
Speak whats on you mind straight and clear not in riddles

 

I said and believe the hobby will survive as for the prices that story on itself too many coins are over priced and will fall come back up fall like it all ways had
will it be strong in the future no one knows but I believe it will be there and that what counts

 

Couple things. For one your coin doesn't go down when submitted for reconsideration. The last time I looked 37% of coins submitted did get upgraded.

The 70's and dealers. The dealers don't create the price it is the registeries. People can't afford to be the big dog on the pcgs Morgan's so they go modern. Pushes up the price. My opinion is even in the classic coins registerits push up the demand and thus the high differential in price between grades.