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<p>[QUOTE="cladking, post: 1257703, member: 68"]Here's how I usually put this. A '69-D is exceedingly difficult to find in AU. Nice AU's are far tougher yet since most of these were lightly struck. Lower grades aren't especially difficult to find. If you get 15 rolls of quarters there will probably be a VG or F- '69-D in them. In a box of quarters you can probably find a nice low end VF. Higher grades are elusive but for this date a nice XF is possible with effort. Forget AU's. They aren't out there and almost no one has a single example. </p><p><br /></p><p>Yes. You can find a '69-D in almost every single '69 mint set. The mintage on this set was not small (~1.8 million). The attrition on the set is extremely high and only about a third of them survive. The '69-D comes very nice in the mint set with chUnc being typical and gems being common (1: 35). This leaves about 17,000 gems in the original production. But this isn't 1969 any longer and large percentages of the '69 quarters in the mint sets are degraded because the packaging is unstable and because of poor storage. Most of these 80% that are degraded could still be recovered if they got attention today but this is a cheap set and the owner has it stashed in the garage and is forgotten. Most of them probably won't get attention in time and are not available to the market at all at this time. These are the sets that will one day "come out of the woodwork" when the price soars but by that time the damage will be permanent in many cases. The number available today is a paltry few thousand plus whatever has been set aside previously. There is very little indication of people setting aside any clad at all. People have a picture of warehouses full of clad or mountains of clad but it does not exist. I've been out there looking for decades and I know there just aren't any such mountains. Yes, there are little stashes here and there but I never claimed these coins are rare, mwerely insufficient to meet the demands of a mass market. There can never be a mass market in truly high grade clads because most of the coins aren't there. </p><p><br /></p><p>The only reason the coins are cheap is that the demand is smaller than the supply. Most of the collectors of clad are young or new collectors and the old timers are more likely to bash them than collect them. Less sophisticated collectors are less likely to be concerned with condition. Many are collecting coins straight from circulation and some don't even look for the finest specimens. If they can't find a gem they'll buy a lower grade. The low supply has little effect n price soince the demand is low. There are few collectors and the few collectors don't specifically seek gems in most cases. </p><p><br /></p><p>So the price remains low and the attrition remains high. This equation hasn't changed much since 1969.</p><p>Sure, there are far scarcer gems than the '69-D but the demand is still lower than the supply. There are some that are far scarcer but have far higher survival rates as well, but the bottom line is that there is very low demand. </p><p><br /></p><p>Eventually the demand will increase. Who knows whether it will just be a few of the circulation collectors today or a mass move by millions of states quarter collectors but the demand for these coins simply keeps increasing year in and year out. Eventually some of us will live to see the demand outstrip the supply. With attrition rates exceeding 3% annually in many cases it might not be too far off. This attrition rate actually affects the lower grade coins to a greater extent than the gems. A coin in circulation can always be lost or accidently dropped in the garbage but gems tend to be protected at least by the unstable packaging. MS-60's aren't going to be in safety deposit boxes. </p><p><br /></p><p>The perception is all these coins are common but there probably aren't 100 fully struck gem 1982-P quarters in the world. This is a simple fact. Then you throw in some monkey wrenches like '69-D or '72-D quarters with type "b" reverses or later issues with type "d" reverses not to mention the numerous DDO's and such and suddenly there are a great number of very scarce or very rare clad quarters. It simply isn't going to take much more than a handful oif collectors seeking nice gem '69-P or '82-P quarters to drive the prices shaply higher. It will then become painfully obvious that none of these coins are as common as the perception. Go into the coin shops and buy every single clad quarter roll you find. If you find 10,000 of them 9,800 will be states coins, 180 will be bicentennial and the others will be mixed dates which are mostly 1965 and one of the '77-'81 issues. This is the way of the world. If you find a roll of '69 quarters it will be put together from mint sets and the nicest ones will be gone. </p><p><br /></p><p>Each year that goes by simply brings more demand and less supply. The supply will continue to fall quickly until people actually attach some value to the coins.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>The '69-D is tough but far easier than a '69-P or even a '70-P. It's easier than the '68 and '71. It might be easier than even the '73-D. </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>Not really. People saved a lot of rolls of these so none of the varieties will be scarce. But the number of coins saved is small compared to mint set production and the quality of these is poor.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="cladking, post: 1257703, member: 68"]Here's how I usually put this. A '69-D is exceedingly difficult to find in AU. Nice AU's are far tougher yet since most of these were lightly struck. Lower grades aren't especially difficult to find. If you get 15 rolls of quarters there will probably be a VG or F- '69-D in them. In a box of quarters you can probably find a nice low end VF. Higher grades are elusive but for this date a nice XF is possible with effort. Forget AU's. They aren't out there and almost no one has a single example. Yes. You can find a '69-D in almost every single '69 mint set. The mintage on this set was not small (~1.8 million). The attrition on the set is extremely high and only about a third of them survive. The '69-D comes very nice in the mint set with chUnc being typical and gems being common (1: 35). This leaves about 17,000 gems in the original production. But this isn't 1969 any longer and large percentages of the '69 quarters in the mint sets are degraded because the packaging is unstable and because of poor storage. Most of these 80% that are degraded could still be recovered if they got attention today but this is a cheap set and the owner has it stashed in the garage and is forgotten. Most of them probably won't get attention in time and are not available to the market at all at this time. These are the sets that will one day "come out of the woodwork" when the price soars but by that time the damage will be permanent in many cases. The number available today is a paltry few thousand plus whatever has been set aside previously. There is very little indication of people setting aside any clad at all. People have a picture of warehouses full of clad or mountains of clad but it does not exist. I've been out there looking for decades and I know there just aren't any such mountains. Yes, there are little stashes here and there but I never claimed these coins are rare, mwerely insufficient to meet the demands of a mass market. There can never be a mass market in truly high grade clads because most of the coins aren't there. The only reason the coins are cheap is that the demand is smaller than the supply. Most of the collectors of clad are young or new collectors and the old timers are more likely to bash them than collect them. Less sophisticated collectors are less likely to be concerned with condition. Many are collecting coins straight from circulation and some don't even look for the finest specimens. If they can't find a gem they'll buy a lower grade. The low supply has little effect n price soince the demand is low. There are few collectors and the few collectors don't specifically seek gems in most cases. So the price remains low and the attrition remains high. This equation hasn't changed much since 1969. Sure, there are far scarcer gems than the '69-D but the demand is still lower than the supply. There are some that are far scarcer but have far higher survival rates as well, but the bottom line is that there is very low demand. Eventually the demand will increase. Who knows whether it will just be a few of the circulation collectors today or a mass move by millions of states quarter collectors but the demand for these coins simply keeps increasing year in and year out. Eventually some of us will live to see the demand outstrip the supply. With attrition rates exceeding 3% annually in many cases it might not be too far off. This attrition rate actually affects the lower grade coins to a greater extent than the gems. A coin in circulation can always be lost or accidently dropped in the garbage but gems tend to be protected at least by the unstable packaging. MS-60's aren't going to be in safety deposit boxes. The perception is all these coins are common but there probably aren't 100 fully struck gem 1982-P quarters in the world. This is a simple fact. Then you throw in some monkey wrenches like '69-D or '72-D quarters with type "b" reverses or later issues with type "d" reverses not to mention the numerous DDO's and such and suddenly there are a great number of very scarce or very rare clad quarters. It simply isn't going to take much more than a handful oif collectors seeking nice gem '69-P or '82-P quarters to drive the prices shaply higher. It will then become painfully obvious that none of these coins are as common as the perception. Go into the coin shops and buy every single clad quarter roll you find. If you find 10,000 of them 9,800 will be states coins, 180 will be bicentennial and the others will be mixed dates which are mostly 1965 and one of the '77-'81 issues. This is the way of the world. If you find a roll of '69 quarters it will be put together from mint sets and the nicest ones will be gone. Each year that goes by simply brings more demand and less supply. The supply will continue to fall quickly until people actually attach some value to the coins. The '69-D is tough but far easier than a '69-P or even a '70-P. It's easier than the '68 and '71. It might be easier than even the '73-D. Not really. People saved a lot of rolls of these so none of the varieties will be scarce. But the number of coins saved is small compared to mint set production and the quality of these is poor.[/QUOTE]
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