Message:

<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Conder101, post: 212567, member: 66&quot;]GDJMSP, excellent post!</p><p><br /></p><p>How do you define what is the &quot;good stuff?&nbsp; Why it is what gave you a good return when you look back at it twenty or thirty years after you buy it.&nbsp; <img src="styles/default/xenforo/clear.png" class="mceSmilieSprite mceSmilie1" alt=":)" unselectable="on" unselectable="on" />&nbsp; Those thing that gave you poor returns were not the good stuff.&nbsp; Of course since you will only know it a couple decades after it is too late that definition isn&#039;t going to help very much.</p><p><br /></p><p>And on that graph, ignore the part before Feb 1986.&nbsp; The idea of a PCGS 3000 before there was a PCGS is a bit meaningless because there is no way of judging the grade of the coins before that time since there is no way of knowing who graded the coins, what standards they used etc.&nbsp; So taking the Feb 1986 as the baseline, if you bought the PCGS 3000 then at $60,000, now twenty years later they would be up 10% to about $66,000.&nbsp; (If you use the governments CPI index for the rate of inflation it fails miserably.&nbsp; Just to keep up with inflation it would have to be $108,000.)&nbsp; If you had put the money in CD&#039;s at 5%, today it would be worth $159,198.&nbsp; And I&#039;m sure the PCGS 3000 was selected with an eye towards showing how coins appreciate which means they tried to select the &quot;Good Stuff&quot; when they created the index.&nbsp; Also note that in the past 13 years it has only been above the original baseline for the past three years.&nbsp; I look at that graph and it tells me that coins are NOT a good investment.</p><p><br /></p><p>As with many investments it boils down a lot to luck and timing.&nbsp; Luck in picking the item that later makes a major move and timing in picking it right before it does and then selling while it is still on the move up.&nbsp; A good case in point are the GSA Morgans.&nbsp; Not too long ago someone mentioned to me that he wished he had bought up a bunch of the GSA coins back when the government sold them in the early 70&#039;s.&nbsp; I told him to be glad he didn&#039;t.&nbsp; GSA morgans made a big jump up around 2002 or 2003 from the $70 level to about $250.&nbsp; If you bought them in 2001 and sold in 2003 you would have made a killing.&nbsp; A 100% per annum rate of return.&nbsp; If you bought them in 1972 when the government sold them and then sold them in 2003 you made between 3 and 5% compounded annually.&nbsp; If you missed the big jump and sold early in 2002 you made a 1% rate of return.&nbsp; If you bought in 2001 and are still holding you are still doing well, but you are down to a 20% per annum rate of return instead of 100%, and falling.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

Your name or email address:

Do you already have an account?

• No, create an account now.
• Yes, my password is:
• Forgot your password?

Stay logged in