Insane coin prices today: HA and CNG

Watched Naville today - prices were still through the roof...

Clearly Covid and rational thinking have no impact on XF+ quality ancients...

 

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I just picked up this little baby from Naville for 190 pounds, which I was really happy about! You never know which coins will end up being reasonably priced so you just have to stay flexible.

Celtic, Imitating Philip III of Macedon Danube Region. Tetradrachm II cent. BC, AR 25mm., 16.56g. Head of Heracles r., wearing lion's skin headdress. Rev. Zeus seated l.; monograms before and below. CCCBM I 185ff. Göbl OTA 579.

 

Getting back to the OP......as I posted elsewhere, I am seeing weakness on high-end 1907 High Relief Saint-Gaudens. If you check out the NGC Price Chart, you see a bunch of stair-step drops the last few years for most of the grades.

This thread, though, seems most concerned with world/foreign coins. Might be different forces at work there though the 1907 HR is one coin that has global appeal from what I have read.

 

Well, most US coins are still vastly overpriced considering how many are out there. Take a 1932 St.Gaudens 134 examples have been certified/ most are MS. A MS-63 is valued at $80K. In European coinage you get that for a AV 10 Dukaten in MS with less then 5 known. 1907 High Relief both types 1300/ 6800 certified/ most MS go for 25K a whack of money for a common coin.

 

But Panzer, I think you have to focus not only on the SUPPLY part of the market. You also have to focus on DEMAND.

That coin you cited is from a very interesting time period, that of the Holy Roman Empire. I remember how much I enjoyed reading about it in high school. But I am not sure how many serious coin collectors value that period over the Roaring Twenties and Saints....at least U.S. collectors. Even globally, you may find a preference for recent (~ 100 years or so) coins rather than going back multiple centuries. And I say that as someone who's interest was piqued by you as I had never heard of this coin before.

I think that the reduced supply of the AV Dukaten's certainly helps maintain pricing -- it's basic math. And it's easier to find "strong hands" for 5 coins than it is for 8,000.

So I'm not sure I would use that particular coin, or those with such limited supply, to a coin with hundreds or thousands available. A better comparison might be to the 1907 UHR Saint, which trades so infrequently that it too is certainly in "strong hands."

 

I guess I should keep my mouth zipped, not that everyone starts collecting older rarities. I agree the St. Gaudens are truly beautifull examples of more "modern" designs. Maybe that explains also why the 1857-S SS-Central America Double Eagles remain pricey. One thing is certain in life.....high quality is in high demand, no matter if coin was hammered in 600BC or machine made in 1907.
John

 

Agreed...and the SS Central America thing is a unique anomaly, IMO. You basically had a super-rare coin (the 1857-S) suddenly get hundreds of Gem Quality coins available...but the market, instead of treating them as 1 coin, have priced them as 2 with the SSCA's commanding a huge premium over the originals. I believe both have started to fall a bit in recent years, but I may be wrong (don't track them that closely, only sporadically).

You also had lots of people buy into the SSCA's of all types when gold was low (~$300/oz.) thinking they would ride a rising bullion market. Instead, gold went up 6-fold the next 11 years and most of the coins were flat or went up a bit or even lost money. The premiums to gold content were RIDICULOUS at the time. Makes the Coin Infomercials look like bargain basement pricing.

Everybody wanted to own them at that exact time so it was like 200 people trying to fit through a door all at once. My cousin paid like $3,500 for I think a $10 or $5 coin (AU condition ?) and I think he's maybe breaking even almost 20 years later.

 

Panzer, I think I misquoted your post when I responded, although my basic premise remains.....so you are comparing that HRE coin to the 1932 Saints, which are obviously rarer than the 1907 HR's. Got it.

I see your point. Thanks !

 

I gave up collecting US coins ages ago - too much hype and promotion.

I guess as a romantic, amateur historian and lover of art I've always been drawn to world and ancient coins.

 

Can you be more specific on "hype and promotion" -- people do want to sell these coins and most U.S. dealers do U.S. coins.

I saw plenty of foreign and world coin dealers at FUN and they were pretty aggressive, too.

There are some beautiful coins, yes. I've picked up a few small gold pieces the last year or so.

 

Would it be out of place to point out that people who have no experience in a field but more money than they can handle do have the option of hiring an auction agent with great experience and impeccable honesty to represent them in the auction? If you are bidding tens/hundreds of thousands in a sale on the top coins, you can afford to pay someone an additional 5% to advise you as to when to walk away and when to jump in with both feet. Buying high grade gold will go better if we have a friend with a clue standing by to say when it is time to be sensible. That may mean avoiding some sellers altogether. We need to remember that the winner in any auction paid more for the item than all the other people who were bidding thought it was worth to them. If you are collecting for the enjoyment of the hobby, you don't mind paying 'too much' to get what you want. The trick is not to pay too much for what you don't want and didn't know why you shouldn't have wanted it.

 

I'm referring to the days when people would come out with a book, say, on Morgan Dollars, that focuses on "proof-like" or "semi-proof-like" and market these coins as well. That was something of a mania back in the 1980s. Now, it's all about slabbing and the MS grading system for US and to a lesser degree world coins. People now collect by numbers, and rather silly numbers, in my opinion. It's all rather self-serving hype, in my opinion, especially when on considers the mintage numbers of popular types, such as Morgan dollars or walking Liberty half dollars (especially the later dates).

You're right, marketing has extended to world and even ancient coins. Look at the tsunami of Athenian tetradrachms hitting the market, often showing up on Amazon and even Walmart, usually in slabbed form.

But, in the final analysis, I just find ancients more appealing, compared to US coins, both in the individuality and the historical significance of each coin, regardless of metal or denomination. I guess I'm just old fashion and out of touch.....

 

Excellent point and not only that, Doug...I can assure you that a super-wealthy buyer of coins (Simpson ?) may not only not have the knowledge to buy "smartly" but he/she may not even CARE about paying an extra 5 or 10 or 25%.

They just want the coin.

Years ago, I was assigned to help a Forbes 400 guy (new money) in our private bank track down a rare Corvette (wasn't my client but I knew Corvettes ). I spoke to the guy....car ran around $150,000.....but I saw a couple of special ones trading up to $250,000 - $300,000.

The guy wanted the car within the next few weeks, months tops. Wanted it NOW. So I asked the guy how high he wanted to go. Figured he would tell me $500,000 or so, triple the FMV and double the "outlier prices" of $250K.

"Just get me the car", he said in a firmer voice.

"Yeah, but I have to know how high I can go" I told him.

"JUST....GET...ME....THE....CAR !!" he said, and I could detect a bit of anger in his voice.

"Hey, I'm on your side (my exact words !!) and I love Corvette's that's why the bank asked me to help you....but I don't think you want me to go 3x that high price and tell you it cost $1,000,000 -- do you ??!!" I replied.

"JUST....GET....THE....CAR !!" he said. "Get the car, or you don't get paid !!"

Click ! Phone dead.

Ended up paying $425,000 with a big fat commission for the bank....he didn't blink an eye. Wired the funds within 2 days of getting the confirmation....car was delivered a week or so later...he was very happy.

When you are worth $2 billion, a couple of hundred thousand dollars, even $1.5 million, is money that you spend on after-shave, in the words of A.G. Pennypacker:

 

Hope it was a 67 427-435HP L-71 model with factory sidepipes/ black with red stinger hood scoop.....

 

Close !!! I believe it was a special L89 if I recall my RPOs......I am trying to recall if it was for an L88....it might have been, because the really pricey L88's (as I recall) were the 1967's. Personally, I always liked the 1969 model year.

 

Yeah, the L-89 was a L-71 with aluminum heads/ still packed 435 horsepower. The L-88 67 only 20 where made. These go for 4 Million.

 

Your avatar is worth $4,000,000 !!!

 

I for one have absolutely no interest in US coins, outside of bullion value when precious metals are involved. I understand some coins have links with events like the Great Depression yes, but the prices seem to be hype.

Even more puzzling is the fascination with doubling and other mint errors. But everyone has a preference.

 

No, its a mild 427-390HP/ powerglide 2 sp./ way cheaper at 100K. I never learned how to drive old fashioned standard trans./ used to automatic. Love the roar of the 427 thru the sidepipes though!