Insane coin prices today: HA and CNG

I been saying that for years, coin collecting is a very popular.
I am glad to be back outdoors working, being a COVID-19 essential worker, lawns/ gardens need to be maintained. I managed 39 hrs past 3 days, today we have snow....so sitting at home rats!

 

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I bought one lot from CNG today. It contained a coin from an area that I specialise in and I was happy to pay double the estimate for it. If another specialist had seen it too I doubt that I would have been successful and been outbid like almost every other auction that I bid on.
Who determines market value on these things? The highest bidder at that point.
Will that value be maintained at the next point of sale? It depends.

 

I agree that the coin market will, in the next few weeks, come crashing down to reasonable levels. Some sellers need the money, and will start offering bargain prices to those who can afford to buy.

 

I hope you are right, but I think sadly prices will rise even more in coming months/ years. There will always be a greater demand then supply on market. The high quality/ rarities will rise even more.

 

The rarities perhaps, but the more recent minted strikes and said collections will probably go down as more people need ready cash.

 

Again, I can only speak for myself. I do not like the government sending me money I do not need and causing our countries' debt to skyrocket. I'm financially stable, and unless we have runaway inflation, I will be fine. I would rather the government target the people most vulnerable, but that is not their way (not to mention the asinine pork projects included in the stimulus bills).

 

I am not sure that you and I looked at the same auctions. I looked at both before they closed and said: "Ho Hum." My collecting focus is like my name here, Roman Republican, and I have spent the last few years looking for cast bronze. I saw no cast pieces and looked no further.
I saw your note and went back to look at hammer prices. I would say the prices were modest. 17 of the 79 Roman Republican lots, 6 of 24 Byzantine lots and 48 of 93 group lots sold below estimate. A few hit nice prices, but an excellent owl did not bring the $180 opening bid.


I do not remember seeing an 8 Prutot coin, but this one hammered for $70 vs an est of $100.


Two coins on my bucket list (but on a buy anytime soon list) sold above their estimates. One day I would like a Phanes, one of the first named coins. This one was a good buy even at 8X estimate.

A Christ portrait in gold is on my bucket list. I do not care who is on the other side, and am waiting for a "bargain".


I am a bit like several folks here, retired. I like to travel, but can not. I may spend some unused travel money on old coins. The only problem is my wife wants me to stop buying coins from Europe.

 

I've noticed the same trend with the US coin auctions I follow. Slabbed and raw coin bids seem to be going higher than they were several months ago.

 

I think we are looking at two worlds: one being the massive number of workers who have been laid off or furloughed, and retirees whose retirement plans are tied to the stock market; the second, much smaller number of individuals who are very wealthy, and, while impacted by the downturn in the stock market, still have the means to pursue their interests, be that speculating on currencies, commodities or acquiring coins.

I suspect that bidding will continue to be strong at auctions and rarities will continue to sell at healthy prices through private treaty. This is not a new situation. The 1930s, during the depths of the depression, saw the wealthy (those that survived the crash of 1929), largely maintain their lifestyles the midst of bread lines and 24% unemployment.

What can arise from our situation? I think any recovery for the economy is going to take a long time. The economy, in terms of unemployment, took nearly 10 years to recover from the 2008 financial crisis. The Great Depression did not truly end until the start of World War II.

So auction houses such as CNG, will continue to fare quite well, thank you. The bids will be strong and some lots will sell at astronomical prices (before commission) even in this time of desperation on the part of millions of individuals. That is the sad, even tragic reality. I try to compensate, through donations and buying fresh produce for another family, but this is just a drop in the bucket.

 

People who buy coins in general -- especially classicc or world or ancient coins -- tend to be very high-income or with high net worth.

You MIGHT see the effects if the stock and real estate markets are in the dumps in a few months. But it's only been weeks since this economic and financial coma hit.

 

Do they trade off bullion ?

I would be surprised if that trend persists.

 

Most who collected ancient coins during the 2008/9 U.S. financial crisis will recall that the ancient coin market thrived before, during and after the crisis. Prices were strong and got even stronger for several years after the crisis. I see no reason to expect a different coin market response this time. Unlike 2008/9, we might also see interruption in the supply chain for the short term, because those that want to sell their coins will not have easy access to dealers and auction houses during the sheltering. Drop in supply could further increase prices.

 

True, I get e-mails from numerous auction houses that are clamouring for consigneed material/ even though I have no interest in selling anytime soon/ later.

 

What could cause a problem this time is this is truly global -- only China seems to be making a "V" recovery (at least their stock market has).

This is truly global....Europe is in a world of hurt, we could be seeing another Euro-EU flareup in coming months once The Great Virus Crisis is no longer dominating headlines. Like WW II, the economy and rebuilding is pushed off the front pages.

I think the hit to net worths could be greater in Europe because of the manufacturing and tourism hits. I just saw that AirBnB -- one of the most valued private equity "unicorns" -- had to pay 10% for debt and the valuation is nearly half from 3 years ago. Who's to say it won't be cut in half in another 6 months ? CEOs who bought assets in the last year (Altria-JUUL, Occidential-Anadarko) have been burned bigtime.

If corporations and the wealthy retrench, expect high-end items like art, coins, real estate to take big hits, too. When your net worth takes a 50% haircut -- let alone 75% -- you still may never have to work in your life, but suddently instead of having 5 hourses, you might just have 3 homes. Instead of 6 cars, you might have 3. Instead of buying a coin or art collection for $40 million, you might say you'll go as high as $15 MM or pass.

 

I am amazed that Heritage can have multiple weekly (or semi-weekly) auctions with hundreds and sometimes THOUSANDS of items for sale.

Not sure how much their online auctions had 10 or 15 years ago but would be interesting if any of you who belonged to HA or Stacks can tell us how busy it was back then.

 

I think there is also a generational element to this equation.

I am a Baby Boomer and I have a comfortable pension, as well as social security income, and I have full title to the house. Younger people, especially the Millennials and Gen X are generally much less financially secure. This generation, along with older, less financially secure individuals have felt the brunt of this financial downturn.

 

Yeah, but the Millennials/ Gen.X ers where never willing to work as hard as the Boomers, instead they wanted the easy life, buying their electronic gadgets with plastic/ eating meals in restaurants/ travelling/ living day to day with no emphasis on saving money for down payment on a house/ car etc. But again, their "Baby Boomer" parents spoiled them rotten.

 

I think that many of the coins that Heritage offers are ones that they own themselves. Perhaps they bought large quantities from recent hoards and are doling them out over a long period of time. There are piles and piles of the same issues appearing in each consecutive sale. I am tired of looking at Tarentum didrachms, Athens owls, Carian drachms and didrachms and tetradrachms, Panticapaeum bronzes, Lycian League hemidrachms, Pamphylia staters, Cilician staters, and even Alexander III style drachms and tetradrachms. But if you are looking for any of these coins to add to your collection, there are certainly buying opportunities. So, the only way I can see Heritage continually offering these issues if they already own them. Just my guess.

 

Maybe they buy super-high quality stuff but I doubt they want to tie up capital in large numbers of relatively illiquid, low-priced common stuff. JMHO.

 

I'm in the same situation as you; a nice pension and SS. Unfortunately, pensions will be a thing of the past for most younger workers.