With the present global outbreak and its financial implications I have a feeling that in the coming months we're going to start seeing a flood of ancient coins go to market. The jobless rate going up is a reliable indicator of people letting go of their non-essentials to pay for bills. While I'm expecting to see more goodies start showing up on Ebay I'm also keeping in mind that many of these will be distress sales. I've been there before and it sucks. Here's a couple of coins I sold to raise funds even though I really really didn't want to. I'd gladly buy them back if I had the chance. Please share your stories of items you've had to sell with a heavy heart - and also what you think Covid-19 will or won't do for the market in the coming weeks. Rasiel
I've been soaking up a lot of coins lately on ebay. I went through a dry spell for a few months but have been buying left & right for the past two weeks. O think part of it is virus related. But I am looking to part with some coins that no longer "spark joy". Just parted with 2 tetradrachms & plan on sending @John Anthony a mixed batch of ancients for an upcoming auction. Sometimes it's just nice to purge & put it towards something else or to save.
I agree with you Ras, that the market will open up with coins that people have to sell. I've been there-done that-unfortunately. Here's some coins I sold I wish I had back. Domitian sestertius with his lost arch and elephant chariot on top. I started a thread some time ago; "When It's Gone, Is It Really Gone?" where I actually found a coin I sold years ago and saw for sale on eBay and got back. Titus (Augustus) Coin: Brass Sestertius DIVVS AVGVSTVS VESP - Radiate Vespasian seated left holding branch and scepter. IMP T CAES DIVI VESP F AVG P M TR P P P COS VIII Around large S C - Legend surrounding large S C Exergue: Mint: Rome (80 AD) Wt./Size/Axis: 24.10g / 35mm / 12h Rarity: Rare References: RIC II 145 Sear 2573 Cohen 207 Provenances: Father Wilbur B. Dexter Collection CNG Acquisition/Sale: fvrivs.rvfvs eBay CNG Electronic/137 #216 $0.00 11/18 Notes: Jan 5, 19 - The Gary R. Wilson Collection So, keep looking Ras. Good things may happen.
I think what you are talking about is "deflation" and what has just happened to oil, even leaving out the Russian-Saudi feud, is going to happen to anything tangible. The value of ancient coins, actually everything, is dependent on the supply-demand equation. Unless there is an instant and spectacular rebound of the worldwide economy there is going to be a flood of tangibles on the market as both collectors and businesses try to raise cash to make ends meet. For those who can maintain their solvency it will be a buyers market, but for many, they will have to sell at a greatly reduced price, articles they may have paid top dollar for a few months ago. I do not like what I fear I see coming.
Oh man - I dont think I could part with a Priscus Attalus! Hopefully you made a solid profit on both sales? I like to think of myself as a flipper, even though I often form emotional attachments to coins in lots that I buy with the mindset, "I'm going to sell every last coin." A few coins I did part with, even though I didn't want to. Augustus funeral quadriga sestertius by Tiberius, to date the most expensive coin I've ever sold - but at least it now has a loving home with another CT member! A hemitartemorion of Kebren, with one of the most finely executed portraits I've ever seen on a coin weighing less than 0.1g A stunning obol from the unattributed satrapal series of Cilicia - quite possibly the finest specimen of its type. A posthumous denarius of Caesar, and published on Wildwinds - I sold this before I eventually decided that I would want a posthumous Caesar, too. An archaic obol of Kyzikos, one of just a few known, and it sold for way less than I figured it should have I just parted ways with this charming barbarous imitation of perhaps a Claudius As - there is no way I would have sold it if it had a reverse, but nevertheless still painful to part ways A tiny and very rare semis or quadrans of Domitian as Caesar - it fetched an OK price, but I haven't managed a suitable replacement since seller's remorse kicked in. I sold this Eucratides AE before I knew what I was doing, and before I had enough followers - it sold for about 1/3 of what I assumed it would
Being a single dad, employed in the public sector, my only way to building a collection has been buying and selling. I was particularly active with this 10-15 years ago, and I built the bulk of my collection back then. I don’t disagree with the prediction, but I’m not sure when we will see this start to unfold. I think coins in general are bound for a lower relative value than now in any case, as the baby boomers will sell or have their collections sold. In the current situation, it’s also possible we will see inflation. Lately there have been big movements in the currency markets too. The dollar is unusually high, meaning that prices in the US will have to drop severly for a coin to look like a bargain for me. I think Rasiel has a likely prediction in unpredictable times. There are many moving parts.
How long after all of us baby boomers and older collectors die will it take for all of our coins to reach market? Big dealers are not shipping coins and do not have staff in place to receive and process new consignments. That leaves the one person operations who are allowed by local laws to go to their post offices (laws vary on this according to where you are). I doubt the full truth of the matter will be seen during the lifetime of most of us. What happens to the coins consigned to houses that go bankrupt or whose principals die? How long will it take for the backlog of coins dumped on the market and the people with cash burning a hole in their pockets to reach some degree of equilibrium? We won't know these answers for a while.
Normally I would be a buyer right now as I have no debt, a modest income in a relatively safe area. That all changed a few weeks ago when my adult children were furloughed from their jobs and are in difficult straits. Since there are grandchildren involved what discretionary cash I have now has to go to them so while I am not thinking of selling any of my collection, I also can not buy for probably some time.
I agree, Doug. I was thinking more in a 10 year perspective. Right now it’s very hard to predict anything at all.
I believe that we are in for a serious economic contraction which we are only seeing the genesis of at the moment. Even the municipal bond prices are falling, along with stocks. At some point the system will correct itself but I'm planning on a 3-5 year time horizon for the return of a bull market. For many of us, losing principal is painful. However, there will be a new class of companies that thrive in the new work-at-home environment, those entities will have to buoy the economy. The private equity markets also are trending toward tremendous risk, so we'll see a slowdown of exit events. It's already impacting me in my profession. I have no plans to dispose of any coins during this period, though I sold my first collection of ancients to help pay for my undergraduate education many years ago. I don't want to go through that difficult situation again.
Too many sad coin sale stories. Guess the majority of us (collectors) have been there at one time or another. Make me appreciate what I have now. J.T.
I'm guessing it won't be only ancient coins but all kinds of collections. Its amazing how quickly activity and income has dried up over the past 6 weeks and the most scary part is the fear of uncertainty. Unfortunately, many people are also using this opportunity to hold back payments even when they can afford to pay. I offered my staff their full salaries for March and a portion of their salaries for the remaining months during lockdown for as long as I could afford with a promise to try and make up the shortfall after activity and income normalised......and they turned down my offer saying they expected full salaries during the entire period of lockdown. I couldn't believe the selfish and inconsiderate attitude especially if they had the opportunity to receive enough to meet basic necessities. Now I guess I'll have to let those who were only just able to hold onto their jobs during normal times, go. Times like these make one realise how selfish, self centered and greedy the human race has become. Most of you know I collect both ancient and modern and much of my purchases were being held in custody by the auction houses. This spare time has given me the opportunity to see exactly what inventory I'm holding and what I can part with without too much pain, particularly where I've either got more than one example or if a part of the collection no longer excites me anymore. Many of my coins are AV so its not too bad in times when the metal is strengthening. Let's hope things start slowing down and pray that we can get back to a semblance of normalcy in a few months. Many of us will have to rebuild our lives but as long as we are healthy, we can do it. Stay safe and good health to all of you.
