I for one certainly hope to see these prices keep plummeting

Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by Danr, Dec 20, 2012.

  1. Danr

    Danr Numismatist

    :thumb:I just may be able to pick up some 2012 Spouses if gold goes below $1600:thumb:
     
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  3. Kirkuleez

    Kirkuleez 80 proof

    Not me, I have decent holdings at the moment. I could use the price of silver to hit about $20 for a week or so, I sold off almost all of my silver when it hit $45 last year and wrongly held out when it was $24 earlier this year.
     
  4. Cloudsweeper99

    Cloudsweeper99 Treasure Hunter

    If silver hits $20 it would probably signal that the current bull market is over and silver will go back to sleep for another 15 to 20 years. Good for collectors, bad for investors.
     
  5. Tinpot

    Tinpot Well-Known Member

    maybe you meant $26? 26 was the low for the year......
     
  6. Revi

    Revi Mildly numismatic

    We may have lost our chance to buy at under $30. It's back over $30 this morning. Maybe it will tank again when they figure out some kind of solution to the cliff.
     
  7. Juan Blanco

    Juan Blanco New Member

    Personally I don't think hasty buys @ $30. are "best price" but each to his/her own. I'm guessing we probably see POS USD$25. and maybe as low as $22. by April 2013. Just my guess, here.

    otoh, Silver @ $20. would be a -59% decline from the POS 4/28/11 and -52% from the April 2011 avg POS. (Skip the High-High, calc off the monthly avg.) That decline is really not as extraordinary as it would appear w/ stocks (historically, a Bull Mkt in stocks ends with a -25% decline; NOT SO FOR PMs) ; the simple 'Down 25%' metric doesn't work here!

    So how often has POS retraced ~-50% without ending a PM Bull?

    1) In 2008 Silver fell ~54% in 7 months (3/14/08-10/24/08)
    2) and then again, -50% in 2011. http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/educat.../02/Silver_Consolidates_After_50_decline.html
    3) (There may be additional examples in the 1960/70s, too. I'll have to check my old work, later.)

    These are just the facts, downside risk that EVERYONE "investing" w/ Silver should already know & accept. If a 50% POS retrace has already happened twice in this Bull Market, it CAN happen again.... with the PM Bull Market, intact. Nervous nellies take heed LOL

    So when do the alarm bells really start ringing? On the charts, by-the-numbers and today: Under $19.


    And what is the (unique?) historical precedent for Silver dropping >-55% in 5-6 months?
    Yes, that extraordinary March 1980 event, a -64% Crash: 1/21/80: POS $42.08 >> 7/21/80: POS $15.35

    The collapse of the Hunt Bros.' cornered market shows how complex that so-called "Bubble" was: http://www.cointalk.com/t218616/#post1591361
    This is nothing like 'Silver Thursday' but it's also worth reviewing that historical event:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday
     
  8. Revi

    Revi Mildly numismatic

    I hope you are wrong. I just boughty 16 shares of SLV for under $30, I haven't bought much physical since it went over $30, so I am betting that the price will bounce now that it's under $30. The SLV was bought for my retirement account, so we'll see what happens... That gets my average around $20 an ounce for what I have in it. I sure hope the price of silver doesn't fall below that.
     
  9. Cloudsweeper99

    Cloudsweeper99 Treasure Hunter

    Just make sure you are aware that SLV holds less than one ounce per share, and it goes down every year. Read the prospectus.
     
  10. InfleXion

    InfleXion Wealth Preserver

    This assumes that the paper price reflects true market dynamics, a leap of faith IMO. I don't care what the paper price is, as long as inflation outpaces interest rates I'll be buying. The lower it goes, the more I get to stack, and the sooner we have another failure to deliver on a major exchange. Paper players might get burnt by the price action, but physical stackers are snatching up a rare and irreproduceable commodity that will most definitely have value long after the current paper shennanigans have run their course.
     
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