I Don't Understand Satin

LOL! Okay, it's been hyped. But, it was hyped and continues to increase in value because of mintage rarity, not it's AG grade. It started to rise in price long ago because it was harder to find than other dates because so many fewer were made (mintage rarity). This is no new phenomenon, it's the basis of the value of most coins. Even though higher grades have always carried a premium, the premium was generally small compared to today, since most collectors were satisfied with a lower priced lower grade. Now, you can argue that today the registry set builders are supporting the “crazy” high prices, so it’s reality, but from what I see most don’t believe it will hold for the long term. Who knows, it’s just not an area, I’d be willing to gamble on. I will always choose the lower mintage coin and buy the grade I feel is reasonablely priced.

You brought up one more key point, present with most key dates. They can't be so rare that dealers don't have sufficient quantities to make it worth their while to promote them and most collectors can't afford them (creating little demand). So, a nice low mintage compared to others in the series should be sufficient to cause the coin to rises in price. That's why I like 745k for the 2008 satins.

 

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Sorry my comments I posted belonged to a different thread. ( 2010 D Jefferson NIckel PCGS MS68 )

 

Hope you're following this debate. If you can't tell the difference between a business strike and a satin, try differentiating between the minute differences in mint state grades (i.e. ms68, ms69, ms70).

 

lol. Reading every post. Maybe one day I'll be able to distinguish between business and satins. I've tried and failed several times...my accuracy is probably worse than a person guessing off the street. As for distinction of higher ms grades I would gladly learned if my collecting pockets could afford such coins (such as the Franklins I'm putting together.) Rest assured I'm sitting back and taking it all in, as with many posts here on Cointalk.

 

Hail Satin!!! :devil:

 

A Little Unintended Humor

I'm reading this thread LOL, as I believe the previous statement was: "This is not true. With much experience it is easy to tell the difference. I can do it 99% of the time all day long as many others can." I believe the recognition level is now: "9 times out of 10". Suffice to say some can generally detect the difference, which I believe coincides with Dougs' general, but not the absolute statement.

I trust you'll pardon my finding humor in a trivial difference of semantics. :smile

 

Well said, Doug!

It's pointless debating this issue with SQGuy any more. He has his opinion and I have mine. He can go ahead and chase the "mintage rarity" satins, and that will be one less person I'll have to compete against for the high-grade biz strikes.

Chris

 

Yeah, I'm ready to move on to another debate, although I'm sure this will come up many times, as it continues to, as there is no correct answer, only differing opinions. I like Doug's analysis, with a few caveats. First, I’ll go along with comparing satins to the silver proofs, since the low mintages are comparable. As for business strikes, although there are only a few high grade 1907 IHC’s certified, many more probably existed and back then people didn't care or did know how to preserve them, which does matter because now you have grade rarity. As for modern high grade business strikes, same thing, there are probably many more out there than certified and many of these high grades will be sitting in rolls and bags, waiting to be discovered, as today most collectors don’t care about them and many collect bags and rolls - yet, still the surviving population of modern high grade business strikes could be low. The big questions are, how many other than registry set collectors care, since they lack the underlying mintage rarity and how long will it take for the average collector to care about a high mintage high grade coin, a 100 years or more or until they can't find one themselves from available bags and rolls? Now, this isn't meant to offend anyone, only to make light of the issue, but a dealer once told me, when discussing modern business strikes, "There are a lot of dog turds out there too and I've only ever seen one green one, but I'm not willing to pay you anything for it".

 

LOL! Hey! I'm using history too, not just assumption. Now, if you want to take this analysis further and assume (I know we shouldn't assume) grade rarity is/will be king, as the hucksters on HSN told me last night, why not cherrypick sp69 & sp70 satins and pr70 silver proofs? In that case you'd have grade rarity and mintage rarity in one coin. Even though I like the satins and silver proofs more than business strikes, I recognize the potential of all of them and I do cherrypick high grade business strikes. I know I could be missing the boat by not selling them now, but I'm just sealing them in Air-Tites and putting them away. I guess I'm not willing to pay to get them certified, as with my luck, the high grade bubble could burst by the time I received them back from the TPG'ers. But, if the "crazy" prices continue, I'll have mine and some to sell.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tKlWGZHEO7Q

Fast foward to the last 30 seconds...

 

I have the sound on my computer disconnected, so why don't you tell me what it is about.

Chris

 

Well, Felix did provide a visual aid......

 

Hmm, I don't know about always. Back in the 60's and 70's, before the marketers latched onto the grade rarity "scams" we see today, there was little interest in any high grade "moderns". If anyone even stocked moderns, one could buy the best examples of a cent for a nickel and they didn't sell even at that price, let alone at huge premiums. The only interest I saw was in high grade, low mintage coins.

I know comparing the 60's & 70's to today is a bit like comparing apples and oranges, but I still see the majority aren't willing to pay much of, if any, premium for a high grade, high mintage coin.

Now, like I said before, I can see cherrypicking high grade, high mintage coins to speculate and maybe sell a few. But, I can't, won't, don't believe anyone paying exorbitant prices for them today will do anything but lose on their purchase.

 

The video pointed out that to assume is to make an "ass" out of "u" and "me".

 

Let me ask you this. If you believe high grade, high mintages coins are a good "investment" at todays prices, why would you not be willing to buy them? That's the problem with the prices of these coins. Everyone is willing to sell at these prices, but few (the ignorant) are willing to buy.

 

I think you are missing Doug's point entirely. He is simply stating that the concept of conditional rarities is not new. It has always been applied to classic coinage and now it is being applied to modern coinage. His other point is that conditional rarities will drive much higher prices than coins that just have low mintages. I think that everyone needs to remember that coin collectors come from every financial background. It is widely accepted in numismatics that you buy the best quality coin that you can afford. There are many collectors who basically have no limit to their available funds and can and will pay top dollar for the very best quality coins they can find.

For an example of a traditional conditional rarity, let's look at Peace Dollars. The 1928 Peace Dollar is widely considered the key date of the series whereas the 1928-S has a much more typical mintage for the later dates of the series.

1928 Peace Dollar: Mintage (360,649)
1928-S Peace Dollar: Mintage (1,632,000)

In XF40, the 1928 Peace Dollar drives a price of $300 compared to $30 for that of the 1928-S. But move up to MS65 and the situation changes drastically. In MS65, the 1928 Peace Dollar has a population of (316/13) and a price tag of $3,150 (Numismedia Wholesale). Compare that to the 1928-S Peace Dollar which boasts a population of (85/2) and a price tag over $15K.

The price is driven by the number of examples extant in that condition. Now I will grant you that you are much more likely to find some of these high grade coins not yet certified for many modern coins, but don't think that you are going to find hundreds or thousands of MS68 business strike coins for any series, date, or mintmark. It simply isn't going to happen and those coins are always going to be conditional rarities.

 

There you go again.......making another incorrect assumption. I'm not an investor. I'm a collector. I could care less about their value, and I don't even keep track of what I paid for most. Sure, I remember the prices I paid for certain coins because they're special to me, but those are mostly Morgans and Classic Commems. As for everything else, I'll let my heirs sort it out.

By the way, there is no fun in searching something like satins when a DISPROPORTIONATE number will grade high, but it is fun and challenging searching for the high-grade business strikes. If you want to live and die by your "mintage rarity" scheme of things, be my guest. It's nothing that I find appealing.

Chris