I am inexperienced with auctions, but

Discussion in 'Ancient Coins' started by KeviniswhoIam, May 14, 2020.

  1. KeviniswhoIam

    KeviniswhoIam Well-Known Member

    Following the CNG 114 auction. I am curious....has it been you folk's experience that the winning bids are overwhelmingly higher than the estimates? There are some that are close (or right on!), but others? wow.
    I am just curious....
     
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  3. physics-fan3.14

    physics-fan3.14 You got any more of them.... prooflikes?

    The short answer is: it depends.

    Long answer: The estimate is just an estimate. Different auction houses will use different techniques to make the estimate. However, on the day of the auction, that estimate could be way too high or too low - I've seen it go both ways. If the coin is unusually attractive, some rare variety, if the market is hot, or if you get two folks who both really fancy the coin, the estimate could get blown out of the water.
     
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  4. ancient coin hunter

    ancient coin hunter 3rd Century Usurper

    Prices seem to be edging higher. The facebook ancient/medieval coin group has a lot of discussion on this trend. Even the FSR auction got very lively towards the end and saw prices bid up probably above the amount charged by the fixed price sites (vcoins and m-a shops come to mind). The Byzantine coins were driven up 4x-5x the opening bid price, for example.
     
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  5. Limes

    Limes Well-Known Member

    For the sections I observe (Roman imperial, republican and imperatorial), generally speaking, estimates are pointless. Some auction houses use more realistic estimates, however.
     
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  6. Randy Abercrombie

    Randy Abercrombie Supporter! Supporter

    I am the worlds worst at auction. When I get my heart set on a coin, I can absolutely be drawn into a bidding war. And that is exactly the situation where auction estimates get blown out of the water. I have resigned myself to placing a maximum bid on a coin and not go back to look until after the bid.
     
  7. seth77

    seth77 Well-Known Member

    I disregard the estimates completely, the only thing that matters is the starting price.
     
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  8. DonnaML

    DonnaML Well-Known Member

    I belong to that group as well, although I don't post there nearly as much as I do here, where there's at least a vague cloak of anonymity! (Also, although there are some very knowledgeable people in that group, including some very experienced dealers, I find the general level of knowledge here to be considerably higher than in the Facebook group, which tends to be flooded with people posting obvious fakes and asking "is this real?" and "what is it worth?" When people show their genuine coins, there are lots of "likes," but usually little subsequent discussion or posting of other members' examples, which makes the place less enjoyable than this forum.)

    More to the point, one of the experienced dealers in that group, who is also a moderator there and whom I respect -- and from whom I've bought coins on several occasions via VCoins -- stated his opinion yesterday that the feeding frenzy in the current CNG auction is largely due to one extremely wealthy collector he calls "Clio," who was "original Google employee # [very low number]. He bought 70 percent or more of the lots today. It’s impossible to compete. . . . He's he’s been doing it for 7 years but it’s only gotten worse." I can't vouch for the accuracy of this statement; I'm just reporting it.
     
    Last edited: May 14, 2020
  9. Alegandron

    Alegandron "ΤΩΙ ΚΡΑΤΙΣΤΩΙ..." ΜΕΓΑΣ ΑΛΕΞΑΝΔΡΟΣ, June 323 BCE

    I no longer frequent FB. Just to see Grandkids, but maybe once every couple months. Was a member of those groups, but came to exact same conclusions as you. Great people.

    CLIO? Search Clio in our CT threads, lotsa posts for ya, Donna! :)
     
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  10. DonnaML

    DonnaML Well-Known Member

    I scrolled through some of the hundreds of references, and get the general idea. He is apparently known for being very wealthy and for "sniping" to win coins at the last second (at least when the user name of the winning bidder in CNG auctions used to be publicly disclosed). Is what was said in the Facebook group about his activities generally accurate to the best of your knowledge?

    I redacted from the statement the information on what number original Google employee Clio was, since it made it too easy for me to find his real name. I don't know if it's supposed to be a secret that he's Clio, but it certainly isn't a secret that he's a collector; he was and/or is an ANS Board member.
     
    Last edited: May 14, 2020
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  11. ancient coin hunter

    ancient coin hunter 3rd Century Usurper

    I agree. On that group there a lot of fakes and "what the heck is this coin" posts. Not much history or background, certainly not like CT.
     
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  12. Agricantus

    Agricantus Allium aflatunense

    It looks like more and more collectors place string bids at the last minute. So it is a bit harder to guess interest. It happened to me in two recent Roma sales. Placed my max bid before going to bed, woke up and lost by 2x and 5x, respectively.

    I am said that both Roma and CNG stopped showing user names. I was having fun tallying who won what. There was a printed cng auction, not Triton, (possibly 105, I'd have to check) where Clio won ~ $500k before bp.

    Now I don't even know if I had the honor to be clio'ed by the real Clio.
     
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  13. pprp

    pprp Well-Known Member

    I have been expressing my very negative opinion on the way Clio acts/buys and potential negative impacts but it seems most of the people in cointalk were quite disagreeing with my views. I am glad I found someone (the dealer you mention) who agrees with me...
     
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  14. Alegandron

    Alegandron "ΤΩΙ ΚΡΑΤΙΣΤΩΙ..." ΜΕΓΑΣ ΑΛΕΞΑΝΔΡΟΣ, June 323 BCE

    Yes, you summed up pretty much the gist from FB and CT’s assessments.

    I seemed to be fortunate, I never lost a bid to Clio, and won the coins I was interested in. Maybe my niches were not appealing to him. But, I am very happy with my collection... and that is what matters to me. I have always liked the road less travelled. And, many times the road NOT travelled!

    Here is a less travelled coin to keep the Thread honest...

    upload_2020-5-14_14-21-17.png
    Roman Republic
    Anon Ca 240 BCE
    AR Heavy Quinarius Drachm (5 Asses)
    16mm 3.0g Rome
    Helmet Hd of Mars r -
    Horse’s hd sickle
    Cr 25-2 Syd 25 RSC 34a
    Very Rare


    [​IMG]
    Roman Republic
    Anon 210 BCE
    AE 23 Quincunx (5/12th of an As)
    6.96g
    Apollo P behind
    Dioscuri
    Luceria
    5 pellets
    Craw 99-4 Syd 309 Sear 910
    Very Rare
     
    Last edited: May 14, 2020
  15. Carausius

    Carausius Brother, can you spare a sestertius?

    In general, hammer prices nearly always exceed estimates in auctions. I can think of three reasons for this:
    1. Auction houses want to encourage bidders to enter the fray, and keeping the estimates low (which reduces the opening bid) helps;
    2. Auction houses love to report that their total hammer prices at a sale exceeded the total presale estimate because this entices collectors to consign material; and
    3. Auction houses sometimes give advances to consignors based on a percentage of presale estimate - best to keep this number low to avoid potential problems if hammer prices are less than hoped.

    Estimates might give you a relative measure of quality or rarity within the same sale, but can never be depended on as true appraisals of market value. For market value, you need to do your homework by looking at recent sale prices of comparable coins.
     
    Last edited: May 14, 2020
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  16. pprp

    pprp Well-Known Member

    Of course if Clio and his likes are not interested in some of the lots, the consignors can bear a loss with this strategy... I could only get 2 coins from the Greek section yesterday, one at 60% of the estimate (starting price) and the other at 70% of the estimate.
     
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  17. abc123

    abc123 Active Member

    I'm a member of this same FB group and feel it should be mentioned that Mike Gasvoda (current CNG owner) replied to the referenced thread. He shared that Clio was not the culprit but a single dealer representing several clients that made off with a majority of the lots. upload_2020-5-14_22-11-24.png
     
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  18. DonnaML

    DonnaML Well-Known Member

    Interesting. So the defendant Clio is pronounced not guilty in this case!
     
  19. Carausius

    Carausius Brother, can you spare a sestertius?

    @DonnaML Of course it's supposed to be a secret! Otherwise the collector would use his/her own name to bid. No collector should have their hidden identity exposed or strongly hinted-at in an open forum without their consent. Many of us bid and post with nom-de guerres for privacy and/or safety reasons. If it's not too late, I would ask that you please further redact your posts to remove any such hints.
     
    Last edited: May 15, 2020
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  20. DonnaML

    DonnaML Well-Known Member

    That's why I redacted from my quotation the specific information posted on Facebook that would enable someone to figure out his identity very easily, as I did. The person in question is obviously extremely wealthy, and I'm sure he takes whatever precautions are necessary for the security of his collection. Also, his identity can't be that big a secret, given that someone posted here a while back that they met him at the NYINC in January. It seems that a lot of people know who he is; if he wanted to change his nom de plume (I think that the use of nom de guerre is a bit out of place!), he could.
     
  21. Carthago

    Carthago Does this look infected to you?

    There is a long tradition of collectors using pseudonyms, even after their death.

    There is an equally long tradition of fellow collectors respecting their privacy. Completely.
     
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