I'm certainly no financial expert, but I think I have pretty good instincts. I don't like stocks at all right now. I think many who sat sidelined for months have convinced themselves that the predicted recession will not come, and have re-entered the market for FOMO. The lag between anticipation of, and arrival of a recession has been unusually long this time around. I chalk that up to a number of contributors: Broader-based recognition of the precursors than normally attends a downturn. Most people are not normally so attuned to economic conditions as they have been during and since COVID. Many opened their reserve spigots during COVID and I suspect that, not wanting to compromise their standard of living, a fair number of those were not very disciplined about shutting that spigot off when COVID abated. For some, that has meant tapping retirement accounts, and charging on credit cards for others. I also think the next will turn out to be pivotally important . . . The resumption of borrowing against the equity in homes currently at artificially high valuations, those driven by (1) the shift in investment after the exodus of so many investors from the stock market, (2) the bumped cost of construction materials due to our COVID-related supply chain woes, and (3) by immigration pressures on the supply of dwellings. I strongly sense that, as personal debt rises unacceptably, recession will ensue, and both its severity and duration will be no less unusual than its delayed arrival. As for bonds, I do think that current yields are quite attractive. But, and to me this is extremely important in the current economic climate, I'd rather keep my powder dry . . . even if I'm risking 5% to do so. There are many years behind us when investing aggressively for high returns was incredibly rewarding. I think now is finally a good time to be defensive-minded and opportunistic. While bonds are a defensive instrument, they restrain one's ability to seize those opportunities . . .