How long will this "fad" last?

Discussion in 'Coin Chat' started by Dimefreak, Jan 11, 2011.

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  1. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    First of all I don't think it's a fad, never have. What I'd call it is a cycle. History tells us that the coin market operates in cycles and always has. And as sure as the sun comes up in the morning, those cycles change.

    But there are also different types of cycles, two of them mainly. One cycle is prices and the other is popularity. And of course both of those things have the ability to influence the other. How long will the current cycle we are in last ? I have no idea.

    The price cycle (across the board) started weakening in 2008. There are those who say the popularity of toned coins started weakening at the same time. Personally, I didn't think so back then. Today however, I think the first cracks in the widespread popularity of toned coins are starting to show. And when popularity wanes, so do prices. Whether that continues or not remains to be seen.
     
    GDJMSP, Jan 12, 2011
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  3. Lehigh96

    Lehigh96 Toning Enthusiast

    I know we have like 3 separate debates going right now and I hate to start a fourth but feel compelled to ask you a question.

    Where did you get your information that popularity of toned coins is waning?
     
    Lehigh96, Jan 12, 2011
    #22 + Quote Reply
  4. mpcusa

    mpcusa "Official C.T. TROLL SWEEPER"

    Toning is cool !! i would hardly call it a fad!! :)
     
    mpcusa, Jan 12, 2011
    #23 + Quote Reply
  5. vnickels

    vnickels Matt Draiss Numismatics & Galleries

    First one is GORGEOUS Lehigh!
     
    vnickels, Jan 12, 2011
    #24 + Quote Reply
  6. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    This is not a fourth, it is one of the present 3 and I see no sense in going through it all again.
     
    GDJMSP, Jan 13, 2011
    #25 + Quote Reply
  7. Lehigh96

    Lehigh96 Toning Enthusiast

    In that case we will have to agree to disagree.
     
    Lehigh96, Jan 13, 2011
    #26 + Quote Reply
  8. 900fine

    900fine doggone it people like me

    Yes yes yes.

    I do have a bone to pick with the whole "Full bands, Full torch, Full Steps, Full Bell Lines, Full head etc" thing... do away with all that and just call em Full Strike. That designation can be applied to all coins; we don't need to re-invent a new designation every time we include a new series into the "Full" club.

    Which leads to another beef - as it sits, most series get no "full" designation. They should.

    Personally, I strongly doubt it.

    Just because something was frowned upon in the past (or approved, for that matter) doesn't mean old-style thinking will return. In fact, many old ideas are gone for good. Good riddance !

    The main thing working in favor of nicely toned coins is they are magnificent and beautiful. They show FAR more diversity than plain blast white, which quickly gets boring. They all look alike.

    Brilliant white, lustrous coins will always be popular. So, too, will beautifully toned coins. Different folks, different strokes.
     
    900fine, Jan 13, 2011
    #27 + Quote Reply
  9. 900fine

    900fine doggone it people like me

    "proven" itself to be a fad ? Perhaps that language is overly strong. How can it be "proven" to be a fad when beautifully toned coins are strong in price today ?

    To me, the term "proven" should live up to Scientific Method standards. Clearly, that is not the case here.

    If you doubt that's so, try buying a gorgeous toned Indian Head cent at greysheet or historical auction prices. I did last week at the FUN show, at two major auctions. No luck; they went for MULTIPLES in price.
     
    900fine, Jan 13, 2011
    #28 + Quote Reply
  10. 900fine

    900fine doggone it people like me

    Another major fallacy in the current designations - a coin can get a "full such-and-such" designation, but not be fully struck !

    A classic case... Full Head designation for SLQs. Many get FH designation (and deserve it) but have weak strike in the shield rivets. Ignore such coins; pass 'em by. Why pay extra cash for a well-struck coin and still have an incomplete strike ? Hold out for the real deal.
     
    900fine, Jan 13, 2011
    #29 + Quote Reply
  11. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    Great points. Early one SL quarters were not even evaluated on Full Head, but Full Breast. If you had a choice between FS, grat details, and FS weak details one should of course choose the better details since "maybe" in the future the determination of full strike may change.
     
    medoraman, Jan 13, 2011
    #30 + Quote Reply
  12. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    But you see, those special designations are something that the collecting public wants. And because they want them that is why they exist. Face it, it's because the vast majority of collectors can never own the truly special coins, the great rarities. They are simply too expensive. But they, the general collecting public, want their coins to be special too. So the special designations were invented to allow that to happen.

    But not a one of the special designations actually require the coin to be fully struck. So if we switched over and used Full Strike as a special designation, again very few people would be able to own those coins because not enough of them exist.

    The coin market is a strange game in that regard - you have to be able to allow a certain number of people to play or the game gets called off and there simply is no game. That's why quite often coins of rarity are seldom collected and why those that are collected sell for tiny or no premium at all. It's because not enough of them even exist to be able to make a market in them. What I'm talking about are coin where the entire mintage is often less than 100 and sometimes less than 50. Yet these coins will sell for their bullion content or a few dollars above that.

    The powers that be will give the collecting public what they want. They always have. Problem is most collectors don't realize that.
     
    GDJMSP, Jan 13, 2011
    #31 + Quote Reply
  13. Kryptonitecomic

    Kryptonitecomic New Member

    I would go so far as to say that I believe the weaking of the market actually started in 2007 but certainly continued through 2008 and even 2009. I did a lot of selling in 2010 and I sold all different denominations and I felt based on profits and sales prices vs my expectations that the market was very strong (just one mans opinion). As far as 2011...I had to pay about 10% to 20% more at the FUN show for the toned coins I wanted for my ebay sales....part of that increase is no doubt as a result of the price of silver as most of the coins I am selling are silver. I won't know until I get a few months of selling those coins under my belt if 2011 is going to be as good or better than 2011. I have not seen any initial signs that there is a weaking in toned coin prices and I would submit that the health of the entire hobby seems poised for a nice rebound that mirrors rebounds seen in the economy.
     
    Kryptonitecomic, Jan 13, 2011
    #32 + Quote Reply
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