How long till memorials become like wheats?

I've tossed my share into the great niagara falls. Buffalo ny here. Looks like you caught me. You spoke the truth. Cheech. Will wear a disguise next time.

 

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I dread the thought of Shield cents being in the majority...

 

It seems more likely to me that, as far as circulation is concerned, memorials, and shields too for that matter, in the not-too-distant future will become more like half cents when cents are no longer produced. I wonder how long after 1857 could you still find or use one in trade?

Whether there will still be enough collectors of minor coins around to make any of them worth anything will be more of a determiner of value than numbers of surviving coins. There are really at least two different hobbies in coin collecting. One is comprised of those who collect relatively common coins, largely from circulation. The other is made of those who collect scarce or rare coins, mostly from sales, more like the antique market. Most of us started out as the former as youngsters searching through change for unusual dates. In my youth (1950s-1960s) it was to put together a set of buffalo nickels or Lincoln cents (never did either). We graduated to spending a little time and money at a coin shop or buying through ads in Coin World. Now, as money allows, we shop auctions in person or on line, and the really rich pay thousands or even millions for those great rarities. How often do those who spend a few thousand dollars for coins still search rolls for wheat cents? The "antique" coin collector will always be around, as they have since the Renaissance. But two factors may greatly diminish the number of circulation collectors. One is the flooding of circulation with too many types, as has been referred to already in this thread. But a greater threat is electronic payments. Many young people today are not interested in collecting something they don't often use or see. Without the circulation collectors, the minor coins will be worth very little.

 

Judging from the condition of most circulated zincolns/shield cents, an unopened roll might not contain any perfect looking specimens a few decades from now - short of encasing them in a block of lucite, I can't imagine any shield cents looking pristine in 50 years

 

It wasn't just you that made me mention Niagara Falls, or your lack of proper disguise. It was the fact they shut it off in the late-70's or early-'80's to clean it up and got six or eight large dump trucks full of coins out of it. This is a minor cause of attrition since even medium sized cities like Memphis get a truck load of coins per month out of their incinerators.

O course it's predominantly pennies because pennies are a liability rather than an asset. They are garbage new and they are garbage until they are destroyed through neglect or misfortune.

Every year 10 million old cars get recycled and each averages about 20 coins in it. Not many are recovered until after they go through the shedders or crushers.

Coins just don't have much value any longer and a driver won't pull over to search for a quarter dropped under a seat. It costs this much in gas and wear and tear to stop so it's a waste of time and money. Some people literally toss pennies in the trash to avoid the liability. I'd applaud them except the government just makes more pennies to replace them. common sense doesn't stand a chance just as common cents doesn't (don't) stand a chance. The toxic little slugs accumulate everywhere no matter what we do.

 

I thought the same thing back in 1982. Thought it again about 13 years ago when it reached the point where cents would cost more than their face value to make even if the materials were free.

It is now, but once the number of copper cents in circulation drops to a negligable amount the melting ban will probably be rescinded just like the melting of silver coin ban was rescinded in the early 70's once silver had pretty much completely disappeared from circulation.

And on all other Philadelphia coins since 1980.

The Mint has been conducting studies on replacing the material and reducing the cost of the cent and nickel for six years now and reporting their findings to Congress every two years. They report they still haven't haven found a material that will allow the cent, which has a manufacturing cost over one cent apiece, to be made at a profit. (Need to find something that has a negative cost.) They have said several time that the five cent can be made at a cost less than the face value, but it would require every machine that uses nickel to be services to change or reprogram their acceptor mechanisims and the problem of handling two coins of the same value but different weights and electronic signatures.

Except for the scrap cars shipped to China which each seem to have about $100 in half dollars in them.