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How long before coins are no longer graded by people but by computers?
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<p>[QUOTE="-jeffB, post: 1375814, member: 27832"]It looks to me like all the arguments here against machine grading boil down to the importance of <i>subjective</i> judgement. For a collector, that's what it <i>should</i> boil down to -- does the coin appeal to you enough for you to buy at the asked price, or does it appeal too much for you to sell at the offered price?</p><p><br /></p><p>For TPGs, though, it's not working out. We're getting inconsistency, "market grading", grade inflation, CAC second-guess stickers, and the "re-submit until you luck into a higher grade" syndrome, which over time will produce a preponderance of overgraded coins (because an undergraded or accurately-graded coin will always tempt someone to try for an upgrade, but once the coin is clearly overgraded, it'll never be submitted again). Some people (hi, Doug!) have already given up on TPG "standards" as a result; if today's trends continue, more and more people will do the same.</p><p><br /></p><p>Automated grading may be one way to put a stop to it. There are reasons it may never happen; I'm sure TPGs <i>love</i> being able to count on a string of resubmissions, and I'm sure customers love the promise of landing an upgrade. But I don't think there are insurmountable technical barriers.</p><p><br /></p><p>Humans can't always explain subjective factors, even if they can <i>evaluate</i> them consistently. <i>But that doesn't matter</i> when you're building an automated system. You just <i>train</i> it until it produce results consistent with your trusted evaluators. At that point, you <i>still</i> don't necessarily know how to explain those (formerly) "subjective factors" -- but you have a machine, which you can back up, duplicate, and sell, that will evaluate them consistently every time.</p><p><br /></p><p>Some of you are probably 100% convinced that it's not possible to train an automated system in this way. You <i>may</i> be right -- but I'm just about certain that you're wrong, and I'm more certain about it with each year of technological advancement. It's not something that I have the resources to prove (by demonstrating it), but I can't imagine any way to <i>disprove</i> it (prove that it's impossible).[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="-jeffB, post: 1375814, member: 27832"]It looks to me like all the arguments here against machine grading boil down to the importance of [I]subjective[/I] judgement. For a collector, that's what it [I]should[/I] boil down to -- does the coin appeal to you enough for you to buy at the asked price, or does it appeal too much for you to sell at the offered price? For TPGs, though, it's not working out. We're getting inconsistency, "market grading", grade inflation, CAC second-guess stickers, and the "re-submit until you luck into a higher grade" syndrome, which over time will produce a preponderance of overgraded coins (because an undergraded or accurately-graded coin will always tempt someone to try for an upgrade, but once the coin is clearly overgraded, it'll never be submitted again). Some people (hi, Doug!) have already given up on TPG "standards" as a result; if today's trends continue, more and more people will do the same. Automated grading may be one way to put a stop to it. There are reasons it may never happen; I'm sure TPGs [I]love[/I] being able to count on a string of resubmissions, and I'm sure customers love the promise of landing an upgrade. But I don't think there are insurmountable technical barriers. Humans can't always explain subjective factors, even if they can [I]evaluate[/I] them consistently. [I]But that doesn't matter[/I] when you're building an automated system. You just [I]train[/I] it until it produce results consistent with your trusted evaluators. At that point, you [I]still[/I] don't necessarily know how to explain those (formerly) "subjective factors" -- but you have a machine, which you can back up, duplicate, and sell, that will evaluate them consistently every time. Some of you are probably 100% convinced that it's not possible to train an automated system in this way. You [I]may[/I] be right -- but I'm just about certain that you're wrong, and I'm more certain about it with each year of technological advancement. It's not something that I have the resources to prove (by demonstrating it), but I can't imagine any way to [I]disprove[/I] it (prove that it's impossible).[/QUOTE]
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How long before coins are no longer graded by people but by computers?
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