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<p>[QUOTE="Michael Scarn, post: 3625368, member: 94715"]I have listed a few ideas for a potential extensions of your research that might not be too difficult, since you have already captured all the required data. Hopefully they are useful/interesting!</p><p><br /></p><p>From what I remember (it has been a while since I read this book), the Wisdom of Crowds phenomenon works best when you have disparate, independent estimates. Because previous CT GTGs are visible (and I assume usually read by individuals submitting later posts), I wonder if you might find a statistical relationship between the direction and/or magnitude of the “error” (i.e. CT user grade - TPG Grade) of the first poster and the average (i.e. I would hypothesize that the final CT GTG average might be bigger and/or biased in situations where the first posted estimate is a large positive or negative deviation from the TPG grade). This could be graphically displayed as a scatter plot (initial error, average error) with each dot being a separate coin. Differing sample sizes may cause too much noise and weaken any relationship that may exist, however. This may also explain why polls are more accurate (more responses where people may be less affected by prior guesses).</p><p><br /></p><p>It would also be interesting to compare the size of the error of the CT GTG average versus number of estimates for a particular GTG. This could help provide support for how many responses are needed to get an acceptable estimate (without having to assume some sort of distribution in the guesses, a potential problem since these are not IID as noted above). </p><p><br /></p><p>Finally, I think it could be interesting to summarize how much “better” the average CT grade for a coin is versus the median CT grader {i.e. Median(abs(CT-TPG)) - abs(Average(CT) - TPG)}.</p><p><br /></p><p>Apologies for the enthusiasm; I’m a recovering math/quant guy....[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="Michael Scarn, post: 3625368, member: 94715"]I have listed a few ideas for a potential extensions of your research that might not be too difficult, since you have already captured all the required data. Hopefully they are useful/interesting! From what I remember (it has been a while since I read this book), the Wisdom of Crowds phenomenon works best when you have disparate, independent estimates. Because previous CT GTGs are visible (and I assume usually read by individuals submitting later posts), I wonder if you might find a statistical relationship between the direction and/or magnitude of the “error” (i.e. CT user grade - TPG Grade) of the first poster and the average (i.e. I would hypothesize that the final CT GTG average might be bigger and/or biased in situations where the first posted estimate is a large positive or negative deviation from the TPG grade). This could be graphically displayed as a scatter plot (initial error, average error) with each dot being a separate coin. Differing sample sizes may cause too much noise and weaken any relationship that may exist, however. This may also explain why polls are more accurate (more responses where people may be less affected by prior guesses). It would also be interesting to compare the size of the error of the CT GTG average versus number of estimates for a particular GTG. This could help provide support for how many responses are needed to get an acceptable estimate (without having to assume some sort of distribution in the guesses, a potential problem since these are not IID as noted above). Finally, I think it could be interesting to summarize how much “better” the average CT grade for a coin is versus the median CT grader {i.e. Median(abs(CT-TPG)) - abs(Average(CT) - TPG)}. Apologies for the enthusiasm; I’m a recovering math/quant guy....[/QUOTE]
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